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  1. #8641
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    Hi Rowsus,

    Gut feel question.

    Is flicking Brandon Ellis to Luke Ryan a smart or worthwhile choice?

    Ellis seems to have started a bit slow for my liking and is a negative POD at present. My team is fairly vanilla and I need all the positive PODs I can get my hands on.

    As you'd know, Ryan is fairly unknown in terms of what he could produce this season, whereas Ellis has a history of scores reliable for D6 at worst.

    All I need is a sentence or two straight from your gut.

    Thanks
    SuperCoach:  4020 (2017) 


  2. #8642
    Rising Star Nominee
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    Hey Rowsus,

    Could I get your thoughts on Heath Shaw?

    In 2016 I thought he was overvalued and opted not to bring him into my team. As a result, I was punished by him averaging 106 @ 22 games. In 2017 I vowed not to make the same mistake and brought him in as soon as his price dipped. To my demise, he goes on to complete a rather uninspiring season.

    What makes Heath interesting for me is that there is a lot of ambiguity. He's turning 33 this year and struggles when a forward tag is applied. However, this is the first time he has admitted he's feeling refreshed after being burnt out and has Zac Williams & Nathan Wilson out of the equation. He looks to have gone back to the SC friendly role we all know and love and is priced considerably lower than previous years. Currently, he's on my team this week replacing Kane Lambert but I could easily sway to C. Curnow, Taranto, Bonner, Rookies come tomorrow.

  3. #8643
    Deputy Vice Captain
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    Hi Row,

    For a range of reasons I seem to be struggling with trades this week.

    I haven't made any yet (but don't want to waste them) and have all the best rookies. I have 266k and my structure is 3, 5.5, 1.5, 4.5 keepers.

    Potential outs:
    Cole
    Maybe Naughton

    Bont
    Maybe Brayshaw

    Roughy

    Potential ins:

    Bonner
    Maybe L Murphy

    Coniglio
    Cripps
    CEY

    D Smith (noting his scan this week)

    Roughy out, midfielder in would be ideal, but I have almost no DPP.

    How do you feel about Bont to Coniglio, Roughy to Smith?

    I'm less happy with this than I would normally need to be to trade, but it is the all important round three ... and if the Dogs really are shot and Roughy doesn't come good, I will have two negative PODs and have missed out on two popular cheap potential keepers.

    What do you think? Any thoughts appreciated.

    Darkie

    P.S. I liked how your castle comment almost went by unmentioned
    SuperCoach:  20937 (2017)  589 (2016)  3225 (2015)  8243 (2014)  AFL Dream Team:  226 (2017)  397 (2016) 


  4. #8644
    Statistician
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    8 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bermi View Post
    Hi Rowsus.
    Now that you are a year older, are you now more wiser?
    Question 2. I'm just curious why you pick so many PODs. Is it because the popular players that are selected by the majority are so obvious to you that you find it boring, so you want a challenge? Do you find it more exciting to pick the right PODs, then winning $50K?
    Another question, just curious again, what job do you do?
    Seriously, you don't have to answer these questions, just curious.
    I admire your knowledge of SuperCoach and really appreciate all the help you give to others, you are really a nice guy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Diabolical View Post
    I’m not sure if Rowsus is eligible for the $50k not being in Australia?? But maybe I’m confused with cricket? So my guess is he does it for the challenge of swimming against the tide and testing his theories?

    It could be what is behind his generosity of sharing opinions and putting it all out there when some of us keep cards close to our chest ... problem is usually those cards don’t turn out to hold too much value in my hand, but I keep living in hope for some reason!

    I am sure I am off track, but whatever your reasons Rowsus, we appreciate your sharing of knowledge, and I for one, look forward to seeing what trades you pull each week.

    Thankyou Rowsus, I probably don’t say that as often as I should!
    Q1 - wiser? Not really, I still do plenty of bonehead things!

    Q2 - POD's. Diabolical is correct, I am ineligible to claim any prizes, as it is only open to residents of Australia. That is part of the reason. I could actually write PAGES on this, but I'll try and keep it short(ish). There are two forms of value in a game like this. The obvious points/dollar value, but then there is less appreciated opportunity value. I use a pretty basic formula when considering whether to take a popular player or not. What is higher, the percentage of people that own that player, or my opinion on what percentage chance that player turns out to be a good, or better than good pick. It works the reverse way too, in that if a player has a low ownership, but I consider him a decent chance to be a good pick, then I'm jumping on him. But what do I mean by opportunity value? Let's compare two players to see what I mean. Fyfe and Whitfield. Fyfe has an ownership of 53%, and is priced at $597,900. Whitfield has an ownership of 4% and is priced at $536,600. Now, each persons level of satisfaction is different, so what I am about to write may seem wrong to some, but ok to others. If I start a $600k player (Fyfe), I want at least a 20/110 season. That PIT70's to 106.4, and while I wouldn't be jumping for joy at that, I'd begrudgingly call it ok. Fyfe has only managed 20 games in a season twice in his career, and didn't hit 110 in either of the previous 2 seasons. Combine those things, and say something like 40% chance to play 20+ games, and a 50% chance to be 110+, and you get he's probably around a 25% chance to meet my minimum requirement. Why 25% and, and not 20%? Because the more games he plays, the less he plays injured, in theory, and the higher his average is likely to be. So in my opinion 53% of people have started a player that is around a 75% chance to be just ok or regrettable. Now look at Whitfield. I was quite bullish about Whitfield coming into the season. Why? Because Docherty was the 4th highest point scorer last season, and when I went looking for another Docherty type, the best match I could find was Whitfield, with the added bonus that he pressed Forward a little more than Docherty. I think people overlooked that very simple fact when looking for a Docherty replacement, once he was ruled out for the season. It didn't have to be a Def! If you are finding a player that has the potential to finish top 10 overall, it doesn't matter where he plays! It's a role that takes some growing into, as Docherty shows. Now, keep in mind Whitfield wasn't available until Round 8 last season, after copping a 6 month ban for dodging a drug test. GWS rushed him straight back into the team, which is a measure of their opinion of him. Being out of match practice, naturally his first few games where scratchy, and he went 3/88 in those games. He then finished the season 12/100 in the last 12 games. Given his time out of the game, and his growing into his new role, I was willing to back him for a 21/108 season. I marked his threshold for me to be happy at 21/105 or 20/107, but hoped for more. It's hard to use his history too much for game counts etc, because of that 6 month ban, but I rated him around a 50% chance to make the 20+games, and around a 65% chance to reach 105. So in round numbers around a 35% chance to meet my success criteria. So........
    Fyfe priced at $600k a 25% chance to be a success, and in 53% of teams.
    Whitfield priced at $540k a 35% chance of success, and in 4% of teams.
    53% of my rivals are a 75% chance to have regret at some stage over selecting Fyfe. Just look at Round 1, and the reaction to his 75!
    Only 4% share my success, if Whitfields 35% chance of success pulls through.
    Remove the names, and look at the numbers. Which one would you choose?
    That is opportunity value.
    The opportunity is there to cash in, when too many people jump on a player, whose chance of "success" have been overrated. Similarly, the opportunity is there to cash in, when too few people jump on a player, who is a bigger chance of success than people think.
    I don't just look at POD value, I look at opportunity value. When picking my team, I started with the Captain's, and decided Danger was too expensive (and before his injury hit, too popular!). I chose my Captain strategy (Dusty, Titch, Sloane). I then hit the sort button on SC, and listed all the players in reverse % order, and looked for players I rated a good chance to be successful picks. And my team had added to Sloane (he was a POD at 6% ownership): S Martin 10%, Parker 10%, Neale 5.5%, Gray 5%, McGovern 5%, Treloar 5%, Whitfield 4%, Lynch 2%.
    Put it in overly simplistic terms. 10 times as many people started Fyfe, than started Neale (and 25 times as many that started Lynch!). Neale and Fyfe had remarkably similar output last season, so why not take the road less traveled, and take Neale instead. Was Fyfe really 25 times more likely to be a successful Mid pick, than Lynch was a Forward pick?. If Fyfe "falls over" look at how many people I get a jump on! I put 53% of the field at a disadvantage, with one event. Go Cookie cutter, and try and do that! Keep in mind, it wasn't POD's for POD's sake, I genuinely rated the players I chose as decent chances to be good picks. Certainly not a tenth the chance of Fyfe!

    Q2 - POD's pt2. I must admit, I look for ways to enjoy the game where I can, and there's nothing more satisfying than landing a good POD!

    Q3 - I work for the local council as a cleaner. I clean a school sports hall, and the changing rooms for them, as well as the cafeteria. I also clean the local council depot, lunch room etc 3 times/week. I've had mainly retail jobs in my work history. I also worked for 13 years as a bookmakers clerk at the races, on the rails at all the big meeting etc. It was in the old days, before computer betting boards, and I had to make 3 to 5 calculations for every bet placed, and the bets could come as quickly as 20/minute. That was twice a week, while I held a full time job at the same time.

    Thanks for the kind words at the end there *blush*.
    Last edited by Rowsus; 06-04-2018 at 4:50am.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  5. #8645
    Michael Tuck Club
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Q1 - wiser? Not really, I still do plenty of bonehead things!
    Q2 - POD's. Diabolical is correct, I am ineligible to claim any prizes, as it is only open it residents of Australia. That is part of the reason. I could actually write PAGES on this, but I'll try and keep it short(ish).

    To be continued
    I despise this resident only thing... Seriously, WTF?

    ha ha

    actually, I have a funny feeling I'd be playing even if there wasn't a prize...
    SuperCoach:  6409 (2017)  9401 (2016)  1219 (2015)  2093 (2014)  902 (2013)  8057 (2012) 

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  6. #8646
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bermi View Post
    Hi Rowsus.
    Now that you are a year older, are you now more wiser?
    Question 2. I'm just curious why you pick so many PODs. Is it because the popular players that are selected by the majority are so obvious to you that you find it boring, so you want a challenge? Do you find it more exciting to pick the right PODs, then winning $50K?
    Another question, just curious again, what job do you do?
    Seriously, you don't have to answer these questions, just curious.
    I admire your knowledge of SuperCoach and really appreciate all the help you give to others, you are really a nice guy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Diabolical View Post
    Im not sure if Rowsus is eligible for the $50k not being in Australia?? But maybe Im confused with cricket? So my guess is he does it for the challenge of swimming against the tide and testing his theories?

    It could be what is behind his generosity of sharing opinions and putting it all out there when some of us keep cards close to our chest ... problem is usually those cards dont turn out to hold too much value in my hand, but I keep living in hope for some reason!

    I am sure I am off track, but whatever your reasons Rowsus, we appreciate your sharing of knowledge, and I for one, look forward to seeing what trades you pull each week.

    Thankyou Rowsus, I probably dont say that as often as I should!
    You say it plenty, Diabolical.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  7. #8647
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    If you're confident holding him won't lead to a donut problem down the track, I think I'd hold him too. I just don't think you get the full value of a trade to either of the other two, over just holding ZGL.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaca View Post
    What about ZGL to English
    Let's say ZGL comes straight back in 4 weeks, and continues to average 55. He will make around $150k in profit. To warrant the trade to English, if it is just money generation, English needs to make around $300-$350k profit to warrant the trade. ie, average around 85!
    Of course, there are other things to factor in, but the main role would appear to be cash generation, so unless those other factors weigh in heavily for you, I would say it's still not worth the full value of a trade.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  8. #8648
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Santoz View Post
    Hi Rowsus,

    Gut feel question.

    Is flicking Brandon Ellis to Luke Ryan a smart or worthwhile choice?

    Ellis seems to have started a bit slow for my liking and is a negative POD at present. My team is fairly vanilla and I need all the positive PODs I can get my hands on.

    As you'd know, Ryan is fairly unknown in terms of what he could produce this season, whereas Ellis has a history of scores reliable for D6 at worst.

    All I need is a sentence or two straight from your gut.

    Thanks
    Hi Santoz,
    my immediate gut reaction was, you won't get your trades worth out of that, unless Ellis suddenly gets a LTI.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  9. #8649
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Steuby View Post
    Hey Rowsus,

    Could I get your thoughts on Heath Shaw?

    In 2016 I thought he was overvalued and opted not to bring him into my team. As a result, I was punished by him averaging 106 @ 22 games. In 2017 I vowed not to make the same mistake and brought him in as soon as his price dipped. To my demise, he goes on to complete a rather uninspiring season.

    What makes Heath interesting for me is that there is a lot of ambiguity. He's turning 33 this year and struggles when a forward tag is applied. However, this is the first time he has admitted he's feeling refreshed after being burnt out and has Zac Williams & Nathan Wilson out of the equation. He looks to have gone back to the SC friendly role we all know and love and is priced considerably lower than previous years. Currently, he's on my team this week replacing Kane Lambert but I could easily sway to C. Curnow, Taranto, Bonner, Rookies come tomorrow.
    Hey Steuby,
    My reaction to that is, he feels fresh now, but it's a loooonnggg season, especially for 33 year olds.
    To be honest, there are very few Defs I'm feeling good about right now. I've gone with a 1-1-6 Def line, so I need to start finding some soon, I guess.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  10. #8650
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Hi Row,

    For a range of reasons I seem to be struggling with trades this week.

    I haven't made any yet (but don't want to waste them) and have all the best rookies. I have 266k and my structure is 3, 5.5, 1.5, 4.5 keepers.

    Potential outs:
    Cole
    Maybe Naughton

    Bont
    Maybe Brayshaw

    Roughy

    Potential ins:

    Bonner
    Maybe L Murphy

    Coniglio
    Cripps
    CEY

    D Smith (noting his scan this week)

    Roughy out, midfielder in would be ideal, but I have almost no DPP.

    How do you feel about Bont to Coniglio, Roughy to Smith?

    I'm less happy with this than I would normally need to be to trade, but it is the all important round three ... and if the Dogs really are shot and Roughy doesn't come good, I will have two negative PODs and have missed out on two popular cheap potential keepers.

    What do you think? Any thoughts appreciated.

    Darkie

    P.S. I liked how your castle comment almost went by unmentioned
    Hi Darkie,
    it's a pity you don't have the DPP to go Roughie to Coniglio as your only trade.
    Mind you, Roughie wasn't horrible last week, and I can see him getting close to what you might have wanted, when you picked him.
    Looking at your lists, I think a lot depends on how sour you are on Bont. If you're not that sour, maybe just Brayshaw to Coniglio, or add in the Roughie to Smith trade if you're really sour on Roughie too. I'm prepared to back Cole and Naughton at this stage, and say thaey don't warrant a trade ....... yet.
    Whichever way you jump, I think you need to include getting Coniglio in your plans. Bont/Roughie to Coniglio/Smith sounds good now, I'm just worried it might by seasons end be one win, and one coin toss, but which ones which, I'm not sure. The two ins probably give you more confidence going Forard though, and that's always a good thing.

    I'm not a big castle fan, and I might be biased, but "our" castle is the best I've seen. It's worth a visit just to see the roof of the ballroom!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  11. #8651
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Hi Santoz,
    my immediate gut reaction was, you won't get your trades worth out of that, unless Ellis suddenly gets a LTI.
    Thanks very much for this.
    SuperCoach:  4020 (2017) 


  12. #8652
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Steuby View Post
    Hey Rowsus,

    Could I get your thoughts on Heath Shaw?

    In 2016 I thought he was overvalued and opted not to bring him into my team. As a result, I was punished by him averaging 106 @ 22 games. In 2017 I vowed not to make the same mistake and brought him in as soon as his price dipped. To my demise, he goes on to complete a rather uninspiring season.

    What makes Heath interesting for me is that there is a lot of ambiguity. He's turning 33 this year and struggles when a forward tag is applied. However, this is the first time he has admitted he's feeling refreshed after being burnt out and has Zac Williams & Nathan Wilson out of the equation. He looks to have gone back to the SC friendly role we all know and love and is priced considerably lower than previous years. Currently, he's on my team this week replacing Kane Lambert but I could easily sway to C. Curnow, Taranto, Bonner, Rookies come tomorrow.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Hey Steuby,
    My reaction to that is, he feels fresh now, but it's a loooonnggg season, especially for 33 year olds.
    To be honest, there are very few Defs I'm feeling good about right now. I've gone with a 1-1-6 Def line, so I need to start finding some soon, I guess.
    Steuby, as far as the 2nd part of your question goes, I would only be looking at Curnow from that list, so for me, it's Shaw vs. Curnow. Probably depends on which line works best to get more dodgy rookies on the bench.

    P.S. Rowsus, don't mean to tread on your toes.
    SuperCoach:  1200 (2014)  2561 (2013)  1129 (2012)  10000+ (2011) 

    "You don't win friends with salad!"

  13. #8653
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    Happy owner of Whitfield here too Rowsus - hoping he can finally live up to his potential now he's on some straighter tracks. 114 and 115 to start the season is pretty solid.
    SuperCoach:  27284 (2017)  12877 (2016)  8481 (2015) 


  14. #8654
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    Hi Row, hope youre well mate.

    Im really up in the air for trades this week, Ive got Crouch and Lambert to deal with.

    Would love to get Dusty but that would only allow me to get a Taranto, Curnow or Petracca up forward. If I went Oliver instead I could get Westoff/ Gunston up forward. Or I could go for Danger in mids with Christensen up forward.

    The other option Ive been thinking of is swinging Gartlett into the mids and getting 2 forwards which gets a forward rookie off the field so Ill only be fielding 1 forward rookie then Ill have 3 mid rookies on ground Kelly, Holman and Brayshaw. Id probably get Heeney and Gray if I did this.

    Just wondering which of these options you like better?

    Thanks mate, really enjoying reading through your answers to everybody.
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  15. #8655
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing_Sting View Post
    I despise this resident only thing... Seriously, WTF?

    ha ha

    actually, I have a funny feeling I'd be playing even if there wasn't a prize...
    Yeah Beijing_Sting, the prizes don't motivate me either, it's the Adrenalin Rush that I like
    I don't even pretend to go for the $50K, it is too time consuming to do it seriously, you really have to dedicate a lot of time, not just researching, but watching games and keeping a check if there are any last minute changes to a starting team, too much for me.
    I love all the weekly challenges and my ultimate aim is to win a league Grand Final.
    When somebody asks me what my hobby is, I say SuperCoach
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  16. #8656
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    Thanks for the 'short(ish)' reply Rowsus, I really enjoyed reading it.

    Regarding the selections of your PODs, I can now see 'the method in your madness'
    Well done with Whitfield, I didn't even consider him. Good luck with him and Geary too ( I won't mention Silvagni. oops, I just mentioned him ).

    I imagined you as doing a job like a 'quick calculating' Bookmaker's Clerk. But I am pleased you are doing a 'stress less' job, good thinking! Your body will thank you later in life.

    Happy SuperCoaching you Great Dane
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  17. #8657
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    G'day Zagbag,
    I too have Treloar, and i'm wondering whether I correct him, Neale, or just ride them out.
    The fact we've been blessed with a fairly easy Rookie set this year is tempting those of us with no Rookie corrections to make, to trade out Prems for our correction trades, and i'm falling into that category too.
    I think at his price, and form, Coniglio is getting very close to a must have. Beams to Coniglio seems like an easy solution to that problem.
    I also think anyone with less than two of Danger, Dusty and Mitchell should be doing what they can to get themselves at least two of those three asap, so I guess Treloar to Mitchell fills that need too.
    On paper, and given the current numbers, they look good trades, I'm just worried that the guys we're trading out, and I'm adding Neale to your Treloar and Beams, won't turn around, and bite us on the butt. They're all 3 very good players, and have the potential to make us regret any hasty sacking decisions!
    Many thanks. I think I'm going to pull the trigger, despite my gut telling me Mitchell will revert to a 115 average. Good luck in your similar quandary.

  18. #8658
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fiasco View Post
    Hi Row, hope you’re well mate.

    I’m really up in the air for trades this week, I’ve got Crouch and Lambert to deal with.

    Would love to get Dusty but that would only allow me to get a Taranto, Curnow or Petracca up forward. If I went Oliver instead I could get Westoff/ Gunston up forward. Or I could go for Danger in mids with Christensen up forward.

    The other option I’ve been thinking of is swinging Gartlett into the mids and getting 2 forwards which gets a forward rookie off the field so I’ll only be fielding 1 forward rookie then I’ll have 3 mid rookies on ground Kelly, Holman and Brayshaw. I’d probably get Heeney and Gray if I did this.

    Just wondering which of these options you like better?

    Thanks mate, really enjoying reading through your answers to everybody.
    Hi Fiasco, I'm well and I hope you are too.
    First let me say, I'm answering from my phone, so my answer is shorter than I would normally like.
    Swinging Garlett up, and getting 2 Fwds depends on which Rookie that pushes on to you field in the Mid. If it's Holman or Kelly, then do it. If it's a 60 point ? then don't. I actually like Gunston, and particularly Westhoff as picks, so choosing one of them is a good move, imo. So it looks like a choice in 3 to me. Dusty/Curnow, Oliver/Westhoff or Heeney/Gray. All 3 are good combinations, but unless you need another solid C/vC option in Dusty, then the last one seems less likely to lead to more trades later on. I hope this has helped.
    Last edited by Rowsus; 07-04-2018 at 3:44am.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  19. #8659
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    3 Not allowed!

    I'll be off line until after tonight's game. Sorry, I won't be much help from here this Round, if your question involves Carl or Coll players.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  20. #8660
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Hi Darkie,
    it's a pity you don't have the DPP to go Roughie to Coniglio as your only trade.
    Mind you, Roughie wasn't horrible last week, and I can see him getting close to what you might have wanted, when you picked him.
    Looking at your lists, I think a lot depends on how sour you are on Bont. If you're not that sour, maybe just Brayshaw to Coniglio, or add in the Roughie to Smith trade if you're really sour on Roughie too. I'm prepared to back Cole and Naughton at this stage, and say thaey don't warrant a trade ....... yet.
    Whichever way you jump, I think you need to include getting Coniglio in your plans. Bont/Roughie to Coniglio/Smith sounds good now, I'm just worried it might by seasons end be one win, and one coin toss, but which ones which, I'm not sure. The two ins probably give you more confidence going Forard though, and that's always a good thing.

    I'm not a big castle fan, and I might be biased, but "our" castle is the best I've seen. It's worth a visit just to see the roof of the ballroom!
    Thanks very much Row - I have taken this on board. I checked the X vs Y thread for some additional reinforcement on the individual names involved, and currently plan to do the two trades I mentioned.

    The only thing is that none of the involved players locks out until tomorrow night, so I can now spend all day tomorrow double and triple checking that I've found the trades I'm looking for Thanks again.
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