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  1. #8701
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    Hi Rowsus,

    What do you see the value of Coffield being, over say Mirra/Guelfi? Or do you think we'd need all three? I guess this is a bit of question about how much cash you think is optimal.

    On face value, I see these rookies making $200k (some almost have!) and some probably more: Kelly, Finlayson, Murray, Doedee, Holman (likely). = ~$1m
    These will probably make 100-150k: Naughton, Banfield, Fritsch. = ~$350k
    As long as some others who the jury is out on: LMurphy, Barry, Crowden/Henry =~$250k

    For all coaches who own Brayshaw, he would be on their benches right now and wouldn't be utilized for points. For me, I've got Kelly Finlayson and Banfield/Holman in the mids, clearly over Brayshaw.
    If I were to d/g Brayshaw to Coffield, I'd expect this to bring in ~10/ppg over Banfield/Holman. With this in mind, do you think Coffield worth the 50-70k over Mirra/Guelfi?

    Thanks a bunch

  2. #8702
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    How are ya Rows? Hope your team is travelling better than mine so far. Have had a shocking start
    and it doesn’t look like it is getting much better. Only positive was bringing in Gray last week.
    Golden rule is to not trade Premiums unless you have to?
    However I have Sloane, Kreuzer and Billing’s to look at.
    Hopefully you can tell me I am thinking straight or not.
    Kreuzer I plan to hold..based on the fact I Bolton says he not injured and tbh I have no real confidence
    in any of the Rucks (apart from maybe Grundy) but missed boat there. Might aswell tough it out? Goldy battling, Nic Nat risky etc
    Billing’s I probably may also hold. Best I could do with one trade is turn him into Hogan or Wallis.. not very convincing though
    Sloane however I am thinking is probably different .. clearly looks injured and is struggling
    Just wondering what your plans are for Sloane?

    Cheers
    SuperCoach:  760 (2014) 


  3. #8703
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pieman17 View Post
    Hi Rowsus, Hope you’re well.

    What are your thoughts on Kruezer and Billings to Grundy and Yeo/Gray ?

    Kruezer and Billings both aren’t scoring to what I thought they would and I feel this scoring might keep going. Would love to get your insight on whether you think their scoring will improve and if the trade/s is/are worthwhile.

    Cheers and thanks in advance.
    Hi Pieman17, I'm well thanks, I hope you are too.
    Firstly on Kreuzer to Grundy, here is an excerpt from something I wrote in the Anatomy Of A SC Average thread on Sunday.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Those with Kreuzer (now priced at around $543,300) should seriously consider making the jump, while the difference is a "low" $67,000. Kreuzer's B/E is going to be around 173 this week, and Grundy's around 63. That means the price difference after next week, assuming both play, will be around:

    $115,000 + (Grundy's score - Kreuzer's score) x 440.

    You can see that is quickly getting out of reach!
    You must keep in mind, that apart from a 14 game hot streak last season, Kreuzer has a pretty consistent record, of a) Not playing 20+ games to often, and b) averaging mid 90-ish, not 100+. If you think Grundy can even go close to 105+ from here on in, then jump, and jump now! It's likely to cost you twice as much next week, if you wait!

    Billings to Yeo/Gray is an interesting one. Billings is sitting fairly and squarely in the middle of the "jump ship now" and "ride him out" intersection. Which one is best is hard to foresee. But if you want to fix him, it sort of needs to be this week, as his price has fallen to $451,900, and his B/E is 146. He could easily fall another $30,000 this week, and then he becomes really hard to fix. I'm facing a similar crossroads with Sloane this week. I'd prefer to hold Sloane, but the downside is too much. The difference between Sloane and billings, is that Sloane seems to be hampered by a foot injury, and Billings is just form. The question remains, is it Billings form that is the key factor, or St Kilda's form? Let's look at Billings' 100+ scores last season, break them up wins and losses, with the margin in brackets:
    Wins: 136 (19), 130 (31), 130 (8), 114 (23), 110 (17) - 5/124
    Loss: 112 (-24), 106 (-57), 104 (-41), 104 (-50), 103 (-2) - 5/106
    We can see 5 of his top 6 scores were in wins, and his top 5 scores in wins were 18/game higher than his top 5 games in losses.
    St Kilda's upcoming Draw is: GWS (Eti), Haw (Tas), Melb (Eti), Freo (Opt), Coll (Eti), Rich (MCG), WC (Opt), Syd (Eti), GC (Met).
    It's not inconceivable that they could lose all of those, but realistically, they should win 2 or 3. That's not a good sign for Billings.
    As to who to go to, Gray or Yeo, I think a lot of that depends on your current by structure, and Fwd and Def set ups. All things being equal, I'd go Gray before Yeo.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  4. #8704
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagling View Post
    Hey Rowsus,

    Do you have any opinion on Dean Kent?
    Hey Eagling,
    for someone who is usually pretty tight with his trades, you've pulled one out of the box there. I'm guessing it's his B/E of -44 that has drawn your attention. Arrange these words into a sentence, and you'll know where I am at.

    plague! him Avoid the like

    Seriously, he's fringe best 22 if we ever have a full list, and plays that poisonous small Forward role. Don't be sucked in by him, or the low B/E.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  5. #8705
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adrenaline View Post
    hi rowsus

    most teams will have hibberd and billings or one of the two. hibberd is avg around 75 and billings is avg 82. what are your thoughts about both of them? do you think we should persist with them and trade around them or trade them out of sides to a top 6 forward or defender like hurley or gray?

    thanks
    hi adrenaline,
    not for point scoring but just for clarity:
    Hibberd 21.3%, Billings 23.0%
    In theory, Teams with both: 4.9%, Teams with one or other 34.5%, Teams with neither 60.6%.
    I'm (happily) sitting in the 60.6%.
    Hopefully you've read my reply to Pieman17, just 2 posts up, about Billings being at the crossroads. I think unless I had more pressing issues, I'd trade him out this week. Given their Draw, and his slight FTB tendency last season, the downside to holding him seems too much.
    Hibberd I think can still pull out a 88 season from here, which requires him to go 90-91 from here. My thoughts on him, and players like him, haven't changed. You either go up, to someone you are pretty rock solid will be at least 5/game better, preferably more, or you go down to a Rookie option. Going sideways for the sake of it, or on a gamble is the worst option.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  6. #8706
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    Quote Originally Posted by dyii View Post
    Hi Rowsus,

    What do you see the value of Coffield being, over say Mirra/Guelfi? Or do you think we'd need all three? I guess this is a bit of question about how much cash you think is optimal.

    On face value, I see these rookies making $200k (some almost have!) and some probably more: Kelly, Finlayson, Murray, Doedee, Holman (likely). = ~$1m
    These will probably make 100-150k: Naughton, Banfield, Fritsch. = ~$350k
    As long as some others who the jury is out on: LMurphy, Barry, Crowden/Henry =~$250k

    For all coaches who own Brayshaw, he would be on their benches right now and wouldn't be utilized for points. For me, I've got Kelly Finlayson and Banfield/Holman in the mids, clearly over Brayshaw.
    If I were to d/g Brayshaw to Coffield, I'd expect this to bring in ~10/ppg over Banfield/Holman. With this in mind, do you think Coffield worth the 50-70k over Mirra/Guelfi?

    Thanks a bunch
    Hi dyii,
    firstly, I think your estimate of Coffield being 10ppg over Holman/Banfield could be too high. Banfield, maybe, but Holman? Holman has one bad game, and is averaging more than Coffield already anyway.
    I certainly can't see most Coaches needing all three, given how strongly the popular rookies have started, but who knows what the future brings, especially with Rookies!
    Right now, comparing Coffield to Mirra/Guelfi, you'd have to give Coffield a decent lead over the other two. He's actually on the bubble, and has a decent score in his last game. They're not there yet. Does Mirra survive, when Burgoyne (2 weeks?) comes back? Does Guelfi have JS, or was he put in to teach those above him a lesson? I'm not sure on either, but right now, it feels like Coffield has better JS than both. The $50-$70k plays second fiddle to JS. If you are confident Mirra and/or Guelfi have decent JS, then given the price difference, they are probably better picks than Coffield. Right now, I'm trading in Coffield, but not because I think he's a great pick, but more because he suits my purpose and structure.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  7. #8707
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slammer View Post
    How are ya Rows? Hope your team is travelling better than mine so far. Have had a shocking start
    and it doesn’t look like it is getting much better. Only positive was bringing in Gray last week.
    Golden rule is to not trade Premiums unless you have to?
    However I have Sloane, Kreuzer and Billing’s to look at.
    Hopefully you can tell me I am thinking straight or not.
    Kreuzer I plan to hold..based on the fact I Bolton says he not injured and tbh I have no real confidence
    in any of the Rucks (apart from maybe Grundy) but missed boat there. Might aswell tough it out? Goldy battling, Nic Nat risky etc
    Billing’s I probably may also hold. Best I could do with one trade is turn him into Hogan or Wallis.. not very convincing though
    Sloane however I am thinking is probably different .. clearly looks injured and is struggling
    Just wondering what your plans are for Sloane?

    Cheers
    I'm good Slam, I hope you are too!
    You do have 3 problems there!
    I don't share your view on Kreuzer. Take out his 14 game hot streak from last season, and look at what happened before and since, and he looks like a solid 90's (low or high) type player. Going to Grundy this week costs around $68,000, and likely twice as much next week. If you hold him this week, you are nearly stuck with him! Unfortunately, that could describe the other two as well.
    I'm trading Sloane to Sicily, very reluctantly. His B/E is too high, and his foot doesn't look right, or certainly didn't last week. It seems like too big of a gamble to hold him, for now. If he bottoms out, and looks better, I will possibly commit that nearly unforgivable sin, and trade him back in.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  8. #8708
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Hi Pieman17, I'm well thanks, I hope you are too.
    Firstly on Kreuzer to Grundy, here is an excerpt from something I wrote in the Anatomy Of A SC Average thread on Sunday.



    You must keep in mind, that apart from a 14 game hot streak last season, Kreuzer has a pretty consistent record, of a) Not playing 20+ games to often, and b) averaging mid 90-ish, not 100+. If you think Grundy can even go close to 105+ from here on in, then jump, and jump now! It's likely to cost you twice as much next week, if you wait!

    Billings to Yeo/Gray is an interesting one. Billings is sitting fairly and squarely in the middle of the "jump ship now" and "ride him out" intersection. Which one is best is hard to foresee. But if you want to fix him, it sort of needs to be this week, as his price has fallen to $451,900, and his B/E is 146. He could easily fall another $30,000 this week, and then he becomes really hard to fix. I'm facing a similar crossroads with Sloane this week. I'd prefer to hold Sloane, but the downside is too much. The difference between Sloane and billings, is that Sloane seems to be hampered by a foot injury, and Billings is just form. The question remains, is it Billings form that is the key factor, or St Kilda's form? Let's look at Billings' 100+ scores last season, break them up wins and losses, with the margin in brackets:
    Wins: 136 (19), 130 (31), 130 (8), 114 (23), 110 (17) - 5/124
    Loss: 112 (-24), 106 (-57), 104 (-41), 104 (-50), 103 (-2) - 5/106
    We can see 5 of his top 6 scores were in wins, and his top 5 scores in wins were 18/game higher than his top 5 games in losses.
    St Kilda's upcoming Draw is: GWS (Eti), Haw (Tas), Melb (Eti), Freo (Opt), Coll (Eti), Rich (MCG), WC (Opt), Syd (Eti), GC (Met).
    It's not inconceivable that they could lose all of those, but realistically, they should win 2 or 3. That's not a good sign for Billings.
    As to who to go to, Gray or Yeo, I think a lot of that depends on your current by structure, and Fwd and Def set ups. All things being equal, I'd go Gray before Yeo.
    Also considering moving Billings on - maybe for Grundy (via English forward), then in a week or two send English back and cash out Lycett (plays Carlton then Freo, now rucking less which is a +ve). Otherwise if I want Lycett to Grundy it will take downgrade Brayshaw to a Mirra/Guelfi to generate enough cash. Any thoughts appreciated?

    What is challenging with Billings is his heat map shows he is picking up possessions all over the ground, not sitting forward. What it doesn't tell me is how much time fwd vs mids.

    Notable that Billings has picked up reasonable amount of possessions in some of his poor scores this year, with his DE down (and marks) in losses, maybe not handling the pressure.

    Team
    Laird Sav Sicily Doedee Finy Murray Naught/Murphy
    Danger Mitchell Dusty Fyfe JKelly Cripps Kelly Holman Banfield Brayshaw Barry
    Gawn Lycett English
    Heeney Billings Petrock DSmith Fritsch Garlett Henry ZGL
    Last edited by GrainFedBeef; 17-04-2018 at 9:34pm.
    SuperCoach:  2278 (2017)  3226 (2016)  5131 (2015)  4659 (2014)  2239 (2013)  7500 (2012) 

    A good coach doesn't blame his starting team…………trade, trade, trade……

  9. #8709
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    Hey Row, quick question:

    My team is as follows:
    ($50,800 bank)
    Laird, Hibberd, Lloyd, Finlayson, Doedee, Murray (Naughton, Murphy)
    Titch, Dusty, Fyfe, Bont, Cripps, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Brayshaw, Banfield, Barry)
    Gawn, Goldy (Olango)
    McLean, Smith, Billings, Petracca, Christensen, Fritsch (Ryan, Garlett)

    My issues are probably apparent, though from my perspective (in order) are:
    Billings
    Goldstein
    Billings
    Ryan (LTI, don't need FD)
    Bont

    I read your posts above re: Billings/Hibberd and yes, I'm in the unlucky 4.9% who own both!

    Unfortunately my trade idea of Goldstein & Holman --> Grundy & Coffield fell 4.8k short... Is it worth considering another rookie, or has the horse (Grundy) bolted.
    Does Billings & Brayshaw to Gray & Coffield seem a better choice?

    Is there another option I'm missing? Is Billings actually my biggest problem?
    I am going for overall as well, does getting in POD Gray (over say, Heeney) knowing I'll miss him in rd 10 seem a logical decision? How many points better than Heeney would he need to be? Is it a POD60 calculation for the missing game? He's probably a player many will bring in for rd11 anyway I'd guess, so the POD won't last long.


    Sorry for the ramble, cheers mate.
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  10. #8710
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    hey rowsus,
    very quickly; if you had enough cash to turn goldy into grundy in one trade (gawn other ruck) and it doesn't effect any of your future trade plans. would you do it? y/n
    thanks for your time legend!

  11. #8711
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    Quote Originally Posted by MC's Mix View Post
    Hey Row, quick question:

    My team is as follows:
    ($50,800 bank)
    Laird, Hibberd, Lloyd, Finlayson, Doedee, Murray (Naughton, Murphy)
    Titch, Dusty, Fyfe, Bont, Cripps, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Brayshaw, Banfield, Barry)
    Gawn, Goldy (Olango)
    McLean, Smith, Billings, Petracca, Christensen, Fritsch (Ryan, Garlett)

    My issues are probably apparent, though from my perspective (in order) are:
    Billings
    Goldstein
    Billings
    Ryan (LTI, don't need FD)
    Bont

    I read your posts above re: Billings/Hibberd and yes, I'm in the unlucky 4.9% who own both!

    Unfortunately my trade idea of Goldstein & Holman --> Grundy & Coffield fell 4.8k short... Is it worth considering another rookie, or has the horse (Grundy) bolted.
    Does Billings & Brayshaw to Gray & Coffield seem a better choice?

    Is there another option I'm missing? Is Billings actually my biggest problem?
    I am going for overall as well, does getting in POD Gray (over say, Heeney) knowing I'll miss him in rd 10 seem a logical decision? How many points better than Heeney would he need to be? Is it a POD60 calculation for the missing game? He's probably a player many will bring in for rd11 anyway I'd guess, so the POD won't last long.


    Sorry for the ramble, cheers mate.
    I have Billings too. But I feel sorry for you having 2 of those assholes.
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  12. #8712
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    Hey Row, would love to know your thoughts on Parfitt. He has started the season very well and shown a very high ceiling. Any merit in going Billings > Parfitt +70K, for example?

    Thanks mate!

  13. #8713
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    Hi Rowsus, I am looking to trade Josh Kelly and Brayshaw this week. I can trade Kelly to Cripps/Cogs and Brayshaw up to Yeo/Savage (via Finlayson) which leaves ~$10k left over, however I only have Titch (no Dusty or Danger). Would this be a better move than simply trading Kelly to Dusty (leaving 170k left over)?

  14. #8714
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    I'm good Slam, I hope you are too!
    You do have 3 problems there!
    I don't share your view on Kreuzer. Take out his 14 game hot streak from last season, and look at what happened before and since, and he looks like a solid 90's (low or high) type player. Going to Grundy this week costs around $68,000, and likely twice as much next week. If you hold him this week, you are nearly stuck with him! Unfortunately, that could describe the other two as well.
    I'm trading Sloane to Sicily, very reluctantly. His B/E is too high, and his foot doesn't look right, or certainly didn't last week. It seems like too big of a gamble to hold him, for now. If he bottoms out, and looks better, I will possibly commit that nearly unforgivable sin, and trade him back in.
    Very good points there Rows.. Thanks. Just don’t like chasing points ie. Grundy
    Fall just short of Grundy & Heeney for Kreuzer and Sloane
    What are your thoughts on Zerrett? Tagged out of the game by Banfield against Freo and concussed in Rd1
    Didn’t see what happened in Dogs game. Has his role changed? Has DSmith and Stringer played a part?
    Other option is take a Risk with NN in Ruck and use cash savings elsewhere but almost a like for like injury wise with Kreuzer to NN. Can easily see NN being rested sometime.
    In a tough predicament at the moment but hearing Sloane will miss anyway so he has to go.
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  15. #8715
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    Hello Rowsus

    I hope you are going well. I will be over your part of the world come Sunday - in Italy and Austria at least. Looking forward to it though my absence will probably play havoc with my supercoach team, not that I am doing very well. My starting strategy of having the injury affected Dangerfield, M Crouch and J Kelly, and no Martin or Mitchell, has played havoc on my ranking.
    So what to do with Kelly if we accept that he may be an ongoing 'managed' player for the season given his groin issues. I have looked at 3 options - Kelly to Martin, Z Merrett or O'Meara - as per Trades 1-3 in the analysis below. (Note that I have done my own estimates of ppg based on current and past scoring trends):

    Name:  SC Trade 1.JPG
Views: 261
Size:  50.4 KB

    Kelly > Martin was the intuitive choice, but I am not so sure now. The analysis suggests he is overpriced (his two big scores so far have included bags of 6 and 7 goals) and so I should wait till he comes down in price. Kelly to Merrett or O'Meara are sideways trades in terms of ppg, but Merrett yields $109K of cash and O'Meara $209K. I am leaning to going to O'Meara for the additional cash, even though he has higher risk. O'Meara to Martin or M Crouch may be an option in the future.

    As I am keen to increase my scoring now, I have also looked at a 'multi' combining Kelly and Holman out and O'Meara and Merrett in:
    Name:  SC Trade multi.JPG
Views: 263
Size:  32.7 KB
    For an outlay of $46,700 I should get an additional 29 ppg average. O'Meara also has a big price rise projected - higher than Holman - so I need to grab him now if I decide to bring him in.

    So in summary, I am leaning to doing the multi-trade this week. I have a reasonable crop of rookies on the bubble, so I feel I may as well spend some cash now. Any comments on this analysis and proposed action will be greatly appreciated! cheers
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  16. #8716
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cattleherder View Post
    Hello Rowsus

    I hope you are going well. I will be over your part of the world come Sunday - in Italy and Austria at least. Looking forward to it though my absence will probably play havoc with my supercoach team, not that I am doing very well. My starting strategy of having the injury affected Dangerfield, M Crouch and J Kelly, and no Martin or Mitchell, has played havoc on my ranking.
    So what to do with Kelly if we accept that he may be an ongoing 'managed' player for the season given his groin issues. I have looked at 3 options - Kelly to Martin, Z Merrett or O'Meara - as per Trades 1-3 in the analysis below. (Note that I have done my own estimates of ppg based on current and past scoring trends):

    Name:  SC Trade 1.JPG
Views: 261
Size:  50.4 KB

    Kelly > Martin was the intuitive choice, but I am not so sure now. The analysis suggests he is overpriced (his two big scores so far have included bags of 6 and 7 goals) and so I should wait till he comes down in price. Kelly to Merrett or O'Meara are sideways trades in terms of ppg, but Merrett yields $109K of cash and O'Meara $209K. I am leaning to going to O'Meara for the additional cash, even though he has higher risk. O'Meara to Martin or M Crouch may be an option in the future.

    As I am keen to increase my scoring now, I have also looked at a 'multi' combining Kelly and Holman out and O'Meara and Merrett in:
    Name:  SC Trade multi.JPG
Views: 263
Size:  32.7 KB
    For an outlay of $46,700 I should get an additional 29 ppg average. O'Meara also has a big price rise projected - higher than Holman - so I need to grab him now if I decide to bring him in.

    So in summary, I am leaning to doing the multi-trade this week. I have a reasonable crop of rookies on the bubble, so I feel I may as well spend some cash now. Any comments on this analysis and proposed action will be greatly appreciated! cheers
    Without wanting to put words into the great man's mouth, I'd say Rowsus would advocate having a reliable captain score for each week. Danger and Titch seem to be where many of the best scores have been coming from, and paying a bit extra for them is worth it in that regard. Danger; although he has a great scoring history, hasn't started the year as well as he previously has. His extended forward time might not be helping to facilitate good captain scores. 3/111 isn't causing mass hysteria for those without him in their squads.
    Have you already brought in Titch recently to have not considered him in your options? If not he'd be priority 1 in my opinion!
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  17. #8717
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    Hi Row,

    At this stage I'm 80% likely to let Billings go so considering replacements.

    I have Robbie Gray pegged as a clear leader of the pack but interested in your thoughts on Jesse Hogan. Specifically - do you think he can be a top 6 forward this year? He seems to be playing a NRoo type role but I'm unsure if this is likely to continue throughout the season and would appreciate some Demon insight!

  18. #8718
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    Quote Originally Posted by MC's Mix View Post
    Without wanting to put words into the great man's mouth, I'd say Rowsus would advocate having a reliable captain score for each week. Danger and Titch seem to be where many of the best scores have been coming from, and paying a bit extra for them is worth it in that regard. Danger; although he has a great scoring history, hasn't started the year as well as he previously has. His extended forward time might not be helping to facilitate good captain scores. 3/111 isn't causing mass hysteria for those without him in their squads.
    Have you already brought in Titch recently to have not considered him in your options? If not he'd be priority 1 in my opinion!
    Hi MC. Thanks for your comments. I have had Danger right from the start and, as you point out, his scores have not been up to last year perhaps due to the good form of other mids such as Duncan, Menegola and now Parfitt allowing him to spend time up forward to the detriment of his SC score. I have traded Titch in when M Crouch was injured and was thinking of bringing in Martin for Kelly to complete the big 3, but I wonder if Dusty is overpriced and I might be better off waiting. Too many options and uncertainties!
    SuperCoach:  23,364 (2017)  24,283 (2016)  7,318 (2015)  24,158 (2014) 


  19. #8719
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    Hey mate,

    So far Goldy has put up scores of 57 and 76 with Majak Daw in the same side. I think week 1 was just due to being smashed by Gawn, but last week Daw had 10 hitouts.

    With that in mind, and Goldy looking to be a problem, is Goldy > Grundy warranted? Or is Goldy worth holding?

    Cheers
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  20. #8720
    Statistician
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrainFedBeef View Post
    Also considering moving Billings on - maybe for Grundy (via English forward), then in a week or two send English back and cash out Lycett (plays Carlton then Freo, now rucking less which is a +ve). Otherwise if I want Lycett to Grundy it will take downgrade Brayshaw to a Mirra/Guelfi to generate enough cash. Any thoughts appreciated?

    What is challenging with Billings is his heat map shows he is picking up possessions all over the ground, not sitting forward. What it doesn't tell me is how much time fwd vs mids.

    Notable that Billings has picked up reasonable amount of possessions in some of his poor scores this year, with his DE down (and marks) in losses, maybe not handling the pressure.

    Team
    Laird Sav Sicily Doedee Finy Murray Naught/Murphy
    Danger Mitchell Dusty Fyfe JKelly Cripps Kelly Holman Banfield Brayshaw Barry
    Gawn Lycett English
    Heeney Billings Petrock DSmith Fritsch Garlett Henry ZGL
    I'm not an expert on heat maps, and I actually don't have access to them, but ....... are they showing where he got his possessions, or are they are showing where he ran? Yes, logic says he most likely to get his possessions where he has spent most of his time, but it's not necessarily proportional.
    Since the start of last season Billings has averaged 23 disposals/game, and this season he is averaging 23 disposal/game. One of things I like to look at, to see if a Forward is playing Midfield time, is their IF50's and RB50's. As those possessions are gathered further up the ground, it gives some sort of indication. So let's break Billings 2017/2018 up into 4 blocks:
    In those 26 games, Billings has 15 games with 23 or less disposals (SC ave 75.6), and 11 games with 25 or more disposals (SC ave 112.4).
    6 games with 23 or less disposals, where his IF/RB% was less than 20% - Ave Disp 20.2, Ave SC 65.5, or 3.2/Disp
    9 games with 23 or less disposals, where his IF/RB% was more than 20% - Ave Disp 18.9, Ave SC 82.3, or 4.4/Disp
    2 games with 25 or more disposals, where his IF/RB% was less than 20% - Ave Disp 29.0, Ave SC 108.0, or 3.7/Disp
    9 games with 25 or more disposal, where his IF/RB% was more than 20% - Ave Disp 27.6, Ave SC 113.3, or 4.1/Disp

    It pans out pretty much as you might suspect. When he plays a more stay at home small Forward type role, and doesn't get much of the ball, his SC Ave really suffers. When he's getting up the ground, and getting a few more Disposals, his SC Ave goes up very dramatically.
    That doesn't help with what will happen from here, but looking at this season's numbers, it's not promising if they continue.
    Rnd 1 Disp 26 - IF/RB 27% - SC 133
    Rnd 2 Disp 23 - IF/RB 30% - SC 79
    Rnd 3 Disp 17 - IF/RB 12% - SC 54
    Rnd 4 Disp 23 - IF/RB 9% - SC 65

    I'm not fan of recommending people go early on Rookies, so I can't say the Guelfi/Mirra course is something I would recommend. Maybe the Billings to Grundy move is the way to go, but I'd be wary of how frail your Forward line is looking if you do.
    The other options come down to how much cash you are holding, I guess.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...



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