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  1. #8821
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    Rowsus, a question that is at the heart of your Anatomy of a SC Average, thoughts on Jimmy Webster and is his scoring output sustainable? With Roberton going down (return unknown from what I know) has that changed his role and a reason behind the increased output?
    Last edited by siwel; 15-05-2018 at 1:43pm.
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  2. #8822
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    Rowsus, what is your view on trading in Danger this week please?

    If it makes a difference, my other preferred upgrade targets are:

    Yeo - in this week (does not preclude Danger)
    Dusty - cheaper in 1-2
    Macrae - too dear, needs a down game
    Grundy/Stef - will decide later, likely post their bye
    Buddy - not playing!

    So Danger looks amongst the most viable ... but I don't want to trade him in ahead of time for the sake of it.
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  3. #8823
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Rowsus, what is your view on trading in Danger this week please?

    If it makes a difference, my other preferred upgrade targets are:

    Yeo - in this week (does not preclude Danger)
    Dusty - cheaper in 1-2
    Macrae - too dear, needs a down game
    Grundy/Stef - will decide later, likely post their bye
    Buddy - not playing!

    So Danger looks amongst the most viable ... but I don't want to trade him in ahead of time for the sake of it.
    Hi Darkie,

    Apologies for hi-jacking Rowsus thread but for what it is worth.
    I believe Danger is cherry ripe now to bring in.
    I for one will be finding a way to bring him in.
    With a BE of 119 which he is more likely to get than not.
    I reckon this maybe the cheapest Danger will be this year.
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  4. #8824
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    Hi Rows,

    Is it too late to bring in Ronke?
    I made a big mistake last year trying to bring in every solid performing rookie.
    Only to find after a few weeks they would be dropped and rot on the bench.
    However although I have missed the first decent increase he still looks set to go up a fair bit.
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  5. #8825
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slammer View Post
    Hi Darkie,

    Apologies for hi-jacking Rowsus thread but for what it is worth.
    I believe Danger is cherry ripe now to bring in.
    I for one will be finding a way to bring him in.
    With a BE of 119 which he is more likely to get than not.
    I reckon this maybe the cheapest Danger will be this year.
    Thanks mate, always happy to hear a view. I am erring the same way - currently bringing him in across all three formats. Row is happy for others to share thoughts here as well. Let's hope we jump the right way!
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  6. #8826
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    Hi Rowsus

    I'm wondering if you'll get a chance to do your ruck draw analysis this year?

    Thanks
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  7. #8827
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    Hi Rowsus,

    Thoughts on Tom Jonas this season? Ultra consistent. Av 95, 5 round av 101. 8.75 marks, second only to Hurn, not sure how many of these are intercepts?
    Has he had a role change due to Hartlett out recently?
    Could be an option after his bye for under 500K.

    Thanks mate.
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  8. #8828
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    Hi Rowsus.

    Just wondering who you would choose to keep out of petracca and billings and why?

    I need to get rid of one of them to get yeo.. And I'm unsure which way to go. Petracca has dpp so can cover midfield and forward... But his ceiling is pretty low. Billings has good history and potential to go big, but it seems his confidence is shot. Melbourne bye round is probably better for my team, but I don't really want that to be the determining factor.

    Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
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  9. #8829
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    Rowsus - Jimmy Webster, am I crazy?

  10. #8830
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    Quote Originally Posted by siwel View Post
    Rowsus, a question that is at the heart of your Anatomy of a SC Average, thoughts on Jimmy Webster and is his scoring output sustainable? With Roberton going down (return unknown from what I know) has that changed his role and a reason behind the increased output?
    Quote Originally Posted by incog43 View Post
    Rowsus - Jimmy Webster, am I crazy?
    Personally, I wouldn't touch him.
    Having said that, there are some people doing a hell of a lot better than me, that are seriously looking at him.

    Here are his anatomy tables.



    I've made what I believe are fairly aggressive adjustments to get to his 2nd table, and it still has him only averaging 83 from here.

    Le's say you have been watching him very closely, and you really think he has not only turned a corner in his career, but think he's going ahead in leaps and bounds. I gave him a starting expectation of 84, which given his career high coming into this season was 71, that in itself is aggressive. But you love you what you see, and look at table 1, and see he has filled all 4 of his tops score spaces. You want to be ridiculously aggressive, and move all 4 of those back to his bottom 4 score spaces. Even if you do that, his expected average from here is only 92. To do that sort of shift is beyond ridiculous. His career game count (74) puts him fairly in the break out zone. His season by season game count puts him fairly in the high risk zone (11, 11, 17, 11, 18, 6). I did some research 2 seasons ago, of how many players that opened the season in the $280-$420k bracket (from memory) turned out to be good picks. This what at the request of Hondo, and it turned out to be less than 1%! Webster is also running a DT:SC of around 1:1.17, and I generally think that is unsustainable!
    All in all, it reeks of a hot streak, and with his dodgey game count just adding to the worry, I don't think i'd be paying close to $500k for him.
    Last edited by Rowsus; 16-05-2018 at 4:12am.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  11. #8831
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Rowsus, what is your view on trading in Danger this week please?

    If it makes a difference, my other preferred upgrade targets are:

    Yeo - in this week (does not preclude Danger)
    Dusty - cheaper in 1-2
    Macrae - too dear, needs a down game
    Grundy/Stef - will decide later, likely post their bye
    Buddy - not playing!

    So Danger looks amongst the most viable ... but I don't want to trade him in ahead of time for the sake of it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Slammer View Post
    Hi Darkie,

    Apologies for hi-jacking Rowsus thread but for what it is worth.
    I believe Danger is cherry ripe now to bring in.
    I for one will be finding a way to bring him in.
    With a BE of 119 which he is more likely to get than not.
    I reckon this maybe the cheapest Danger will be this year.
    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Thanks mate, always happy to hear a view. I am erring the same way - currently bringing him in across all three formats. Row is happy for others to share thoughts here as well. Let's hope we jump the right way!
    I say do it.
    I completely stuffed up. I brought him in Round 7, because I was pretty sure I was bringing Spargo and Ronke in, in Round 8........ then I didn't bring in Ronke!
    I think the timing could be perfect, except for those that got him last week ....... maybe.
    The thing I liked about last week was, he appeared to play more Mid time than earlier in the season, even with Hawkins out. Maybe Geelong are onto something there, and playing the best Midfielder in the game up the ground could actually improve their chances of winning games!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  12. #8832
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slammer View Post
    Hi Rows,

    Is it too late to bring in Ronke?
    I made a big mistake last year trying to bring in every solid performing rookie.
    Only to find after a few weeks they would be dropped and rot on the bench.
    However although I have missed the first decent increase he still looks set to go up a fair bit.
    Hi Slam,
    you need to forget how he has started, and ask yourself, how you see him going when Sydney get back to their more traditional Forward set up.
    Personally, I see him falling back to a sort of typical small Forward Rookie, that might average around 65 from here, and even have dodgey JS in a couple of weeks. Despite his price going up in leaps and bounds, if he only averages 65 from here, then he is going to top out at around $310k. I don't see that being worth the trade, or the JS worry. Keep in mind, he had 10 tackles, kicked 7 goals, and shone a spotlight on himself, that other Coaches have all seen now. Aside from the great returns he has had, he looks a small Forward that doesn't get a lot of the ball. If you bring him in, you need him to get to at least $350k consider it a break even trade. To do that, he needs average around 77-78 from here. I for one think that is probably a bridge too far.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  13. #8833
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    Hi Rowsus

    I'm wondering if you'll get a chance to do your ruck draw analysis this year?

    Thanks
    Hi freowho,
    I was planning to do it, to look at the viability of the Gawn to Ryder in Round 11 manouvre.
    For those wondering where that is discussed, click HERE.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  14. #8834
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juzzo View Post
    Hi Rowsus,

    Thoughts on Tom Jonas this season? Ultra consistent. Av 95, 5 round av 101. 8.75 marks, second only to Hurn, not sure how many of these are intercepts?
    Has he had a role change due to Hartlett out recently?
    Could be an option after his bye for under 500K.

    Thanks mate.
    Hi Juzzo,
    he is averaging 3 intercept Marks/game.
    I think he is too problematic.
    Over 27 years old.
    Over 100 games played
    Only 1 season out of 8 with more than 19 games, and 3 with more than 17.
    Highest recorded season 71.
    Spikes are harder to predict than breakouts, but to be a good pick from here, he needs to record a spike season.
    No thanks.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  15. #8835
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    Quote Originally Posted by whiteTiga2k View Post
    Hi Rowsus.

    Just wondering who you would choose to keep out of petracca and billings and why?

    I need to get rid of one of them to get yeo.. And I'm unsure which way to go. Petracca has dpp so can cover midfield and forward... But his ceiling is pretty low. Billings has good history and potential to go big, but it seems his confidence is shot. Melbourne bye round is probably better for my team, but I don't really want that to be the determining factor.

    Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
    Hi wT2k,
    it's a tough call, but I'd probably keep Billings, if forced to hang onto one of them.
    He has at least been there, and done that, and if he even finds a little form, he becomes an important cog in a struggling team.
    Petracca has no history as such, and is really competing with some other good young players for Midtime.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  16. #8836
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Hi Slam,
    you need to forget how he has started, and ask yourself, how you see him going when Sydney get back to their more traditional Forward set up.
    Personally, I see him falling back to a sort of typical small Forward Rookie, that might average around 65 from here, and even have dodgey JS in a couple of weeks. Despite his price going up in leaps and bounds, if he only averages 65 from here, then he is going to top out at around $310k. I don't see that being worth the trade, or the JS worry. Keep in mind, he had 10 tackles, kicked 7 goals, and shone a spotlight on himself, that other Coaches have all seen now. Aside from the great returns he has had, he looks a small Forward that doesn't get a lot of the ball. If you bring him in, you need him to get to at least $350k consider it a break even trade. To do that, he needs average around 77-78 from here. I for one think that is probably a bridge too far.
    Great reasoning Rowan and you are probably right and maybe I'm just looking for an excuse to get him in even at his current price.

    I understand where you are coming from and I assume that by "tradtional forward structure" you mean Buddy coming back into the team. Who knows when that will be and my reading of the situation and given how cagey Sydney have been about Buddys injury and given he has missed 3 weeks already wont paly this week, it may be another 2-3 weeks before he is back. Of course there is a good chance I'm wrong and Buddy might be back sooner.

    Given is scores 92-66-120 and tackles 7-3-10, he appears to be playing the small forward role and doing it quite well ATM, I guess the attraction is to him is that if he can average 70-75 which given his scores to date is not out of the question for the next 3-4 weeks he could well be up around the 340-350k mark, he would be traded before his bye.

    These are just my thoughts and it should be noted that I have made some howler mistakes in the past bringing in bolters such as Selwood last year and Van Berlo in the past only for them to be injured or scoring poorly after they were brought in, so history with this type of player is littered with train-wrecks.
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  17. #8837
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deeman1 View Post
    Great reasoning Rowan and you are probably right and maybe I'm just looking for an excuse to get him in even at his current price.

    I understand where you are coming from and I assume that by "tradtional forward structure" you mean Buddy coming back into the team. Who knows when that will be and my reading of the situation and given how cagey Sydney have been about Buddys injury and given he has missed 3 weeks already wont paly this week, it may be another 2-3 weeks before he is back. Of course there is a good chance I'm wrong and Buddy might be back sooner.

    Given is scores 92-66-120 and tackles 7-3-10, he appears to be playing the small forward role and doing it quite well ATM, I guess the attraction is to him is that if he can average 70-75 which given his scores to date is not out of the question for the next 3-4 weeks he could well be up around the 340-350k mark, he would be traded before his bye.

    These are just my thoughts and it should be noted that I have made some howler mistakes in the past bringing in bolters such as Selwood last year and Van Berlo in the past only for them to be injured or scoring poorly after they were brought in, so history with this type of player is littered with train-wrecks.
    Thanks Ash.
    Your numbers are pretty close. If Ronke scores 75 in each of the next 4 Rounds he'll be $346,900 with a B/E of 56. I don't think it is just Buddy Ronke owners need to worry about. Horse has publicly stated that their current Forward set up will struggle to consistently kick winning scores. I would think any fit and able bodied tall-ish player might soon be getting a crack at it!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  18. #8838
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    Hi Rowsus,

    I didnt start Dusty this year and though my decision looked dubious at the start of the year it looks like a good one right now. I would love to bring him in next week assuming he is around the $480-90k mark but after bringing Danger in this week i am only left with $40k in the bank. I have no mid cash cows mooing so my only real option that i can see to bring Dusty in is for T Kelly. Looking at my team below, can you see anything wrong with that move - or see a trade that I should be prioritising?

    My team after trades this week is as follows:

    (20 trades left, 40k in the bank)

    Def: Yeo, Simpson, McGovern, L Ryan, Doedee, Finlayson (Cole, Murphy)

    Mid: Danger, Fyfe, J Kelly, P Cripps, Neale, TMitchell, Coniglio, T Kelly (Holman, Spargo, E Phillips)

    Rucks: Gawn, Lycett (Olango)

    Forwards: Heeney, Franklin, Lambert, D Smith, Dixon, Fritsch (ZGL, Guelfi)


    Keen to hear your thoughts mate, cheers
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  19. #8839
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    Hi Rowsus, any interest in Tuohy at 360k?
    He has a decent draw of Essendon, Carlton, Suns, and North and then the Tigers before the bye.
    Could we see a "regression" of scores that sees him push towards the 480k mark (to possibly swap around the byes) or is he not really worth it?

    Cheers for all your work!
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  20. #8840
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    I say do it.
    I completely stuffed up. I brought him in Round 7, because I was pretty sure I was bringing Spargo and Ronke in, in Round 8........ then I didn't bring in Ronke!
    I think the timing could be perfect, except for those that got him last week ....... maybe.
    The thing I liked about last week was, he appeared to play more Mid time than earlier in the season, even with Hawkins out. Maybe Geelong are onto something there, and playing the best Midfielder in the game up the ground could actually improve their chances of winning games!
    Thanks for your thoughts Row ... makes sense to me. Subject only to a selection surprise, he is locked and loaded
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