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  1. #8841
    Rising Star Winner
    Join Date: 02-02-2017
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    Hi Rowsus,

    I’m torn this week with what move to make, hoping you can share some wisdom.

    I’m looking to upgrade Finlayson but there are only 2 defenders I don’t have that I would consider (already have Sicily, Yeo, Shaw, Lloyd).

    They are:

    R Laird 554k - Preseason prediction: 100avg, Current: 113avg

    K Simpson 501k - preaseason prediction: 95avg, current: 106avg

    Allowing for adjusted average, neither of them seem like worthy trade-ins going off the above numbers.

    Do I ignore them and leave Finlayson on the field for a few more weeks?

    Or do I accept a loss and pay the price for Laird/Simpson, even though they may dip from this point.
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  2. #8842
    350 Games Club
    Join Date: 06-07-2012
    AFL Club: Carlton
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    G’day Rows,

    Plan to bring Danger in this week but fall a little short for just one trade.
    So it is Danger and Rookie most likely bringing on Phillips or Cumming etc. early.
    Problem is which two to move on out of Holman, Bradshaw, Doedee, Findlayson and Rayner.
    Yes I know Doedee and Findlayson have highest BE’s but can’t help think their potential to score higher and reasonable JS I should keep them.
    Bradshaw and Rayner seem the slow burners and Holman can score ok but probably has shakiest JS.
    Also have Crowden, Keefe, Guelfi, ZGL, Murphy who are all playing but are not enough to make the both trades.
    Any suggestions appreciated $183k
    Last edited by Slammer; 17-05-2018 at 11:25pm.
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  3. #8843
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
    AFL Club: Melbourne
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    Quote Originally Posted by JLK5 View Post
    Hi Rowsus,

    I didnt start Dusty this year and though my decision looked dubious at the start of the year it looks like a good one right now. I would love to bring him in next week assuming he is around the $480-90k mark but after bringing Danger in this week i am only left with $40k in the bank. I have no mid cash cows mooing so my only real option that i can see to bring Dusty in is for T Kelly. Looking at my team below, can you see anything wrong with that move - or see a trade that I should be prioritising?

    My team after trades this week is as follows:

    (20 trades left, 40k in the bank)

    Def: Yeo, Simpson, McGovern, L Ryan, Doedee, Finlayson (Cole, Murphy)

    Mid: Danger, Fyfe, J Kelly, P Cripps, Neale, TMitchell, Coniglio, T Kelly (Holman, Spargo, E Phillips)

    Rucks: Gawn, Lycett (Olango)

    Forwards: Heeney, Franklin, Lambert, D Smith, Dixon, Fritsch (ZGL, Guelfi)


    Keen to hear your thoughts mate, cheers
    Hi JLK5,
    given you have held J Kelly and Franklin through their missed games, I am guessing you are playing for League glory, and not overall.

    It looks like you traded out Brayshaw and Crowden this week, to get Phillips and Dangerfield.

    Given that those trades looked like reasonable steps to reach Danger, I think we are best re-visiting this question next week, when we have more information, on which Rookies you might need to move, and how Dusty looks this week.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  4. #8844
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bomber18 View Post
    Hi Rowsus, any interest in Tuohy at 360k?
    He has a decent draw of Essendon, Carlton, Suns, and North and then the Tigers before the bye.
    Could we see a "regression" of scores that sees him push towards the 480k mark (to possibly swap around the byes) or is he not really worth it?

    Cheers for all your work!
    B18
    Hi B18,
    no interest over here, whatsover. Before last season he looked like a 79-80 type player, and he's not far off looking like one this season, too.
    To reach your goal of $480k by his bye, he needs to score at 110. If he scores 5 x 110's, you probably aren't letting him go!
    You must be swimming in trades to be considering a high risk, short term, Stepping Stone, at this time of the season!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  5. #8845
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommyGobbler View Post
    Hi Rowsus,

    I’m torn this week with what move to make, hoping you can share some wisdom.

    I’m looking to upgrade Finlayson but there are only 2 defenders I don’t have that I would consider (already have Sicily, Yeo, Shaw, Lloyd).

    They are:

    R Laird 554k - Preseason prediction: 100avg, Current: 113avg

    K Simpson 501k - preaseason prediction: 95avg, current: 106avg

    Allowing for adjusted average, neither of them seem like worthy trade-ins going off the above numbers.

    Do I ignore them and leave Finlayson on the field for a few more weeks?

    Or do I accept a loss and pay the price for Laird/Simpson, even though they may dip from this point.
    Hi TG,
    I think your pre-season expectations of Simpson and Laird were pretty much in line with mine, too.
    For those interested, those expectations now translate to, for the rest of the season:
    Laird 92 from here, Simpson 88 from here.
    I do think some sort of adjustment on their expectations is ok with both of them, but I wouldn't be going up to anything like their current averages.
    As to how much you adjust them, that's really up to the individual.
    Either way, if there is no one else you have confidence in, then I'd grab Simpson, as he's $50k cheaper, but the difference in expectations is worth far less than $50k.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  6. #8846
    Statistician
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slammer View Post
    G’day Rows,

    Plan to bring Danger in this week but fall a little short for just one trade.
    So it is Danger and Rookie most likely bringing on Phillips or Cumming etc. early.
    Problem is which two to move on out of Holman, Bradshaw, Doedee, Findlayson and Rayner.
    Yes I know Doedee and Findlayson have highest BE’s but can’t help think their potential to score higher and reasonable JS I should keep them.
    Bradshaw and Rayner seem the slow burners and Holman can score ok but probably has shakiest JS.
    Also have Crowden, Keefe, Guelfi, ZGL, Murphy who are all playing but are not enough to make the both trades.
    Any suggestions appreciated $183k
    G'day Slam,
    I think I'd use Finlayson and Rayner.
    They look the two at greatest risk of going backwards quickly.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  7. #8847
    Dual Brownlow Medalist
    Join Date: 11-11-2012
    AFL Club: Essendon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Hi B18,
    no interest over here, whatsover. Before last season he looked like a 79-80 type player, and he's not far off looking like one this season, too.
    To reach your goal of $480k by his bye, he needs to score at 110. If he scores 5 x 110's, you probably aren't letting him go!
    You must be swimming in trades to be considering a high risk, short term, Stepping Stone, at this time of the season!
    Thanks for the response! Just good to know your thoughts on him. I'm unlikely to bring him in but thought he could be a reasonable left field option.

    Kind of in a similar vein, any interest in JJK next round at around 370k next round? Haven't fully figured out his draw but he does have the Saints at home and Essendon in his next four from next round.
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  8. #8848
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
    AFL Club: Melbourne
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bomber18 View Post
    Thanks for the response! Just good to know your thoughts on him. I'm unlikely to bring him in but thought he could be a reasonable left field option.

    Kind of in a similar vein, any interest in JJK next round at around 370k next round? Haven't fully figured out his draw but he does have the Saints at home and Essendon in his next four from next round.
    Now that one I'm interested in!
    I intend to watch him play this week, to get a feel of how he's moving, and if looks ok, he's definitely a chance to come in!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  9. #8849
    Vice Captain
    Join Date: 25-03-2012
    AFL Club: North Melbourne
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    Hey Rowsus, hope all is well.

    This week i broke back into the top 2,000 and i may be on the verge of doing something silly this week.

    Murray > Ridley
    Henry > McKernan

    McKernan has never shown to be fantasy relevant and after a few games he ends up playing in the 2s. Considering he's 305k, has DPP for ruck cover with English (who hasn't played for 2 weeks), has a B/E of -24 and has put two 90+ scores together with good stats in a row. Is he a viable option at all? I know people looked at getting ruck cover with Cox especially and that probably hasn't paid dividends. I feel if a worst case scenario occurred and in the next 2-4 weeks his scores drop back to 60-70, i can trade him out at his bye and i would be down 2 trades. On the flip side, he manages to string a couple more good scores to his bye and i would probably be well ahead. Taking McKernan over say McDonald leaves me with 250k in the bank to facilitate Fritsch to Gray/McDonald/Buddy next week.

    Would love to hear your thoughts.
    Last edited by anfa18; Today at 6:40pm.
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  10. #8850
    Rising Star Winner
    Join Date: 02-02-2015
    AFL Club: St Kilda
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    Hi Rowsus,

    In need of a little guidance - whether to upgrade Kelly to Danger and finish off my midfield or upgrade my Defence (Doedee, Murray and Cole onfield) or my Forwards (Billings and Fritsch onfield)?

    I am afraid of Danger taking off which is why I am leaning towards the Kelly option. Alternatively leave Kelly in place until after the byes and upgrade a defence rookie to T Mcdonald / Hurley (Rd 13 bye suits). I am more inclined to upgrade defence rather than fwds as Fritsch is OK and Billings I was going to trade out around the byes if he doesn't come good to give him more time to show the awesome talent we know he's bottling up

    Appreciate your thought oh wise one.
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  11. #8851
    50 Games Club
    Join Date: 16-02-2014
    AFL Club: Brisbane
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    Hi Rowsus,

    I jumped on the Gray train early and have benefited from all of his scores bar one, but after his performance on the weekend and Rocky's form I'm a bit worried about what he'll average from here. I'm anticipating maybe a 90 average from here if Hinkley plays him as a forward pocket.

    Would it be crazy to 'slingshot' him to Danger this round?

    Cheers

  12. #8852
    350 Games Club
    Join Date: 06-07-2012
    AFL Club: Carlton
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    G'day Slam,
    I think I'd use Finlayson and Rayner.
    They look the two at greatest risk of going backwards quickly.
    Thanks Rows for the advice ... worked out pretty well
    Next mission is McDonald but fall short of using Murray straight out.
    18 trades. Do I go again and bring him in via one up one down?
    Crowden will be dropped this week. Is he worth trading? Cannot see him getting back in.
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