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  1. #1
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    In June last year Grant started a thread called Questions for Rowsus. I must admit I enjoyed answering most of the questions put to me, so I thought I'd revive it for 2014.
    Last year I managed to answer every question put to me. Whether my answers were always helpful or not I can't say, we'd need to ask the people who put the questions to me. Some questions will attract a short simple answer, and some questions will recieve the full "Rowsus" treatment. I will say up front that "Rate My Team" questions put to me here are in danger of being merged to that thread, rather than being ansered here. Similarly "Player X v Player Y" type questions might get shifted to that thread, unless you put an interesting spin on the question.
    The more the question interests me, the more in depth the answer will likely be. So fire away!


    To get us started I will answer a question/request from Misky, that was put to me in the 2014 Defenders thread.

    In response to a typically long answer I had given, on why there appeared to be a little less love for Bartel, Mitchell, McVeigh and Hodge than one might expect, Misky asked me:

    Quote Originally Posted by Misky View Post
    If i'm reading this correctly, the general piece of advice would be to skip the 2/3 most expensive/dual position players and look for value? Rattling a few names off the likes of Hurn, Henderson, Grimes, Duffield, Fisher, D Swallow, etc, who are beyond the top 10 most popular def and picking 1 or 2 of them and hoping for a 10-15ppg increase would be the way to go?
    I responded with:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    People tend to think that the higher priced players in any given position are "safe" picks. The truth is, apart from Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan and Goddard when he was a Defender, the higher priced players actually have a pretty poor record of backing up their opening prices/last years scores. They are the only players that are/were consistently in the top section of their playing groups. Interestingly enough, when you get down to the lower end of say, the top 10 PIT Defenders each year, you can find some consistency. Players like Enright and Adcock consistently sneak into the bottom end of the table. If I find time, I will make some tables for the last 4 or 5 years, that demonstrate how much each group changes from year to year.
    Which lead Misky to give me the following request:

    Quote Originally Posted by Misky View Post
    This would be really useful should you get time!
    In the next post below is my answer.
    Last edited by Rowsus; 25-01-2014 at 8:02am.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  2. #2
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    I've looked at this question, and to answer it for all 4 field positions in SC would take me about 60 hours, so I've decided I will demonstrate my point by focussing on the Defenders section.
    I chose this section for a few reasons. Firstly it is the most relevant to what Misky asked me. Secondly, it is the area of the ground with greatest variance in top listed players. Lastly, Midfielders have their Mr Consistents that fill the top placings, year in, year out (Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Selwood J etc), and Rucks only hold 2 Places in our 22, so it is very restrictive.
    Let's start by looking at tables for the last 5 seasons. The first 10 Places in each years tables are filled by the players who had the 10 highest PIT65 average for the season. Look in the table "Key" if you don't know what this is. The other players listed in each years table, are the players that were the most expensive Defenders at round 1 each season.

    So, 5 years of tables, and we can see that, of the 50 players that filled the 10 most expensive spots in each season, only 21 of them manged to fill a top 10 spot for that season! 23 of the 50 actually finished outside of the top 20 for the season. some of you will jump on the excuse wagon, that they were injured etc. I have 2 responses to that, firstly it might apply to 12 of the 23, secondly, we are looking at this from a preseason point of view. It's all in. Injuries don't count in this analysis, because right now, any player you pick is open to have a injury affected season.
    The bottom line is, there is no safety in buying expensive players. This is highligghted by the fact, that only 2 players make the top 10 list every year. Goddard has 4 1st placings and a 3rd placing, and Enright has a 2nd, 4th, two 6ths and a 7th placing. Goddard of course, is no longer available as a Defender, and Enright, while aging, should genuinely be considered a SC star, that's consistency with a capital "C"!
    No players make the list in 4 of the 5 years. Only 2 players make the list in 3 of the 5 years (Newman and Scotland), and another 7 players make the list twice. It shows that the top 10 Defenders list changes quite dramatically from year to the next, and only 42% of the positions are filled by the most expensive players.
    There certainly is no safety in paying top dollar!
    So all this raises a few other questions:
    Where do the top 10 most expensive Defenders finish on the end of season list?
    Where do the players who fill the top 10 Defenders come from on the most expensive list?
    How far, or how many points outside the top 6, do the players that were expensive, finish?
    And lastly, and very relevant for this season:
    How do players that weren't Defenders in the previous season, perform in their first season as Defenders?
    Lets look at another set of tables to answer those 4 questions:

    The first table: Where did the 10 most expensive defenders at rnd 1 finish the season?
    The most expensive Defender each season has a great record, but it must be remembered, this is totally a reflection of Goddard. where we see that 4 of the 5 years the most expensive Defender finished top 3 for the season, all 4 times it was Goddard. As to be expected, the further we read to the right, the worse the record gets. What is surprisingly demonstrated by this table is, how badly the expensive players can fail, when they let you Down. it's not a slip from 1st to 12 or 14th, quite often they drop out of the top 20 or 30 players!
    The second table: How many points outside the top 6 did they finish?
    This is more relevant than finishing position. You can finish 12th, and be 50 points behind the 6th player, and that's not such a bad result. You can finish 10th, and be 200 points behind the 6th player, and that's a disaster! Looking at this table should send shivers down your spine ,if you are starting round 1 with ALL the expensive Defenders. The 29 players, that finished 100 or more points behind the 6th best Defender, averaged finishing 340 points behind that player! That's nearly 60% of the the top 50 most expensive Defenders, and they've finished on average over 300 points behind the 6th best Defender!
    The third table: Where did the players that finished top 10 in the Defenders rankings come from on the most expensive list?
    Is there a place, or range, we should be shopping for our Defenders? The simple answer is "no". There's no historical pattern to find here. 7 of the top 50 Defenders came from outside the most expensive 50 defenders, and 12 came from outside the top 30. That's an average of 2.4 top 10 Defenders each year coming from players as far down as the 30th most expensive, or lower. ie, nearly a quarter of the top Defenders each year. Yes, there are bargains to be found. Just keep in mind, a players performance only counts from when you trade them in. It's no good getting a top 10 player after he has posted what is likely to be their 3 of their 4 best scores for the season. It just doesn't make sense, and if you need an example, just look at birchall last season!
    The fourth table: How did players, newly labelled Defenders, perform in their first year?
    Given the situation we are looking at this season, with so many "Midfielders" available to be selected as Defenders, it is very relevant to see how similar players have performed in the past. In the 5 tables there are 13 players that fit this description. I have ordered the table from the most expensive "new" defender, down to the cheapest. Keep in mind, in 2011 players were 10% cheaper, as we had 33 man squads. I have adjusted the players accordingly, as you can see with Gibbs sitting above Goodwin, even though his price appears cheaper. 8 of the 13 "new" Defenders were in the top 6 most expensive Defenders of that season. Their record should open your eyes a little. Those 8 players finished in their respective years: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 9th, 17th, 20th, 21st and 74th! That's a horrible 50% success rate. Only 2 of the 8 players improved their average from the previous season. 7 of the 8 had lower PIT65 scores in their first Defender year. Overall, the 8 players were down, on average, just under 200 points each on their previous season. 12 of the 13 were in the 10 most expensive Defenders for their year, and only 4 of those 12 finished as top 10 Defenders. Included in this list is one $600k+ plus player, 2* $550k-$600k players and 7* $500k-$550k Defenders. All right in the price ranges were looking at this season, with Mitchell, Bartel and McVeigh. Of course, their previous seasons records are all similar, or better than those 3 players as well.

    Summary
    I'm certainly not suggesting don't start with these players. What I am suggesting is, go in with your eyes open, and realistic expectations. There is no way Bartel, Mitchell and McVeigh, and to a lesser extent Hodge, Walker A, and Simpson K can be considered locks for season top 10 Defender positions. Yes, all 6 might make it, but we have enough history to suggest that is more likely only 3 or 4 of them will, at most.
    I will leave you with this thought. The people that allocate players their position (Champion Data?) have at their disposal more time and information than we ever will have. They are the experts, and like the Handicapper in racing, they will be proven right more times, than Joe Schmo from the public will be. For CD to have reallocated these players to Defenders, or Mid/Defenders, it means they have proof these players have shown a trend in their possessions and field time, that sees them spending more time in Defence than previous seasons. For the most part, these trends tend to continue, or increase, rather than reverse themselves. Sometimes, listening to those with all the information at their fingertips, is a good idea.
    Don't avoid these 3 or 6 players because of what I have written here, but also don't blindly believe they are rolled gold certainties to be top 10, let alone top 6, Defenders. There is plenty of history that says a number of them will fail!
    Last edited by Rowsus; 01-02-2016 at 11:14pm.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    In the next post below is my answer.

    ps - this may take me about an hour to load, so please be patient
    Hahaha, I can see it now:
    'In a dark, wood panelled room, the walls covered in dusty AFL scarves and shelves of old Footy Records, the Guru of Copenhagen takes a break from his rock in the harbour and contemplates life and the 2014 SC season. With a roaring fire and a cold Fosters for company (he misses drinking rubbish Aussie beer every so often), he flips through his heavy tome of 'Rowsus Answers'. Selecting one, he makes sure it passes the 2014 RAMP test and uploads the wisdom matrix to the SCS forum page. The laptop hums as it adjusts to the heavy number load. The upload started, Rowsus stares into the flickering flames wondering which mid breakout smokie would be a better choice for 2014.'
    SuperCoach:  14,974 (2017)  72 (2016)  22,451 (2015)  2,593 (2014)  33,325 (2013) 

    SC 2018 Round 4 Lesson: the SPUD is dead, long live the Spud???

  4. #4
    Michael Tuck Club
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    Oh Great one, will the Muppets have trades left for finals in 2014 ?
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  5. #5
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    Sounds great Rowsus, now I just need to think of a great question worthy of a great response which has the interest of the group.....
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeptideCourage View Post
    Hahaha, I can see it now:
    'In a dark, wood panelled room, the walls covered in dusty AFL scarves and shelves of old Footy Records, the Guru of Copenhagen takes a break from his rock in the harbour and contemplates life and the 2014 SC season. With a roaring fire and a cold Fosters for company (he misses drinking rubbish Aussie beer every so often), he flips through his heavy tome of 'Rowsus Answers'. Selecting one, he makes sure it passes the 2014 RAMP test and uploads the wisdom matrix to the SCS forum page. The laptop hums as it adjusts to the heavy number load. The upload started, Rowsus stares into the flickering flames wondering which mid breakout smokie would be a better choice for 2014.'
    PC, if you ever get bored with your day job, you could take up writing. You might even give Dan Brown a run for his money!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maso View Post
    Oh Great one, will the Muppets have trades left for finals in 2014 ?
    I see a third year running of bad luck plagueing the Muppets. They will be on track to keep a trade or 3 up their sleeves for the finals, when disaster strikes late in the season, causing the Muppets to use those all important last trades!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    I see a third year running of bad luck plagueing the Muppets. They will be on track to keep a trade or 3 up their sleeves for the finals, when disaster strikes late in the season, causing the Muppets to use those all important last trades!
    Bugger ! (this is my biggest concern)

    love the work rowsus my only concern with your workings is the 3 top priced defenders arent "defenders" its their 1st year in postion so i was thinking are they priced as defenders or midprice mids with dpp ? more bartel and mitchell as both have better history then mcviegh . not sure if that makes any sense .
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maso View Post
    Bugger ! (this is my biggest concern)

    love the work rowsus my only concern is the 3 top priced defenders arent defenders its their 1st year in postion so i was thinking are they priced as defenders or midprice mids with dpp ? more bartel and mitchell as both have better history then mcviegh .
    Don't forget, that exact same description could be placed on 2009 version of Hodge, and the 2010 version of Goodwin. Both cost over $550k, and for the most part, let down the Coaches who started with them, in their teams.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Don't forget, that exact same description could be placed on 2009 version of Hodge, and the 2010 version of Goodwin. Both cost over $550k, and for the most part, let down the Coaches who started with them, in their teams.
    hmmm this is why you are the master statman
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  11. #11
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    If i was to stack my midfield (not saying i will ;p) would fwd rookies be a better cash gen then def ? or is the gap to big for this two postions from the midfield to even consider this knowing we need to generate cash as well as points to be successful ?
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  12. #12
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    Absolutely top notch post Rowsus. If I learnt anything last year, it was that Def requires consistency in scoring. If that means lower ceilings then so be it - let your forwards be the ones that smash out massive scores one week and do nothing the next.

    You want a Harry Taylor/L Hodge type player backline - last man in defence, dependable, will take the mark/smother the kick/fingernail the ball, someone that will get the the job done, a strong rebound week in week out which turns your SC total score from solid to attacking.
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    SC 2018 Round 4 Lesson: the SPUD is dead, long live the Spud???

  13. #13
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    Great stuff Rowsus, are you planning on joining any of the other comps this year or just running with SC?
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maso View Post
    If i was to stack my midfield (not saying i will ;p) would fwd rookies be a better cash gen then def ? or is the gap to big for this two postions from the midfield to even consider this knowing we need to generate cash as well as points to be successful ?
    On the very little we know about the Rookies for 2014, a stacked Premium Midfield would appear to be a bad move. Your team would remind me of the old days of the Melbourne Marathon, when it used to go over the West Gate Bridge. There would be 200 guys sprint from the start, wanting to build a big lead, so they could say "I was first across the Bridge!". Similarly to these guys, your team would ping out of the gates, but would run out of puff around the halfway mark of the season/race. It's hard enough to see how we will make a decent dollar in the Fwd and Def lines this season as it is, but to nearly rely on them for 80% of your cash generation would seem crazy this season. One last thing on those Bridge maniacs. For quite a number of them, the only marathons they could finish, was the three dim sims they got with their Friday night fish and chips. They only entered the race to be the first over the Bridge, and then pull out. What they miscalculated (often) was you had to run around 4kms to get to the Bridge, then another 2.6kms to get over the Bridge, the first 1.4km all up hill! Many of them could be seen on Salmon St, trying to hail a taxi, without ever setting foot on the bridge!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Great stuff Rowsus, are you planning on joining any of the other comps this year or just running with SC?
    I've never played DT, so won't be starting now. I played a few other fantasy comps in 2012, and earlier, but just SC now. I am precluded from prizes in most competitions, as I am not deemed to be an Australian resident. This really ****ed me off, when I was leading a major NRL tipping contest in 2012, so I decided the best way to avoid the angst, is to just not play! I will be in a SC draft comp with friends, and 2 other Leagues, outside of my SCS League.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  16. #16
    Michael Tuck Club
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    This was one of my favourite threads in 2013... Thanks for reviving it for this season Rowsus. Great analysis as always mate...

  17. #17
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    thanks rowsus for your imput i promise i will come up with a question thta requires some statistic and calculations for you to keep that mind of yours ticking over
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  18. #18
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    Thanks so much Rowsus for the info, i'm glad that i've been used as a guinie pig this season to get this thread rolling
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  19. #19
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    What kept you back from getting a higher ranking last year bad strategy/trading/structures or player selection and what would you do differently this year?

  20. #20
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    Ok another question, while we are on a roll!

    General strategy question: For those that are thinking of doing a locked and loaded midfield this year (read that as you may but i would consider locked n loaded 6 superprems/prems or equivalent in the mids) shooting themselves in the foot?

    I guess the advantages are that premos are much harder to get into your squads as the season progresses and you're buring 2-3 cows to get them in at times (looking at Ablett and Pendles for example), so it would make sense to start with them now? All these prems generally hold their value well compared to other lines (they score the most) and there is a possibility of picking someone up for a bargain in these lines when they have their "bad game".

    Disadvantages: generally rookie mids score the most in the mids and thus generate the most coin, having few of these can hurt cash generation.

    With the amount of value in the forward line this year/fallen prems (compared to previous years), the difference this year with higher priced rookies and the unpredicability of the def line i'm leaning more and more into the staked midfield option. Does anyone else agree?

    Thanks Rowsus
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