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  1. #41
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Haha like it. I'm still bitter about last night's 4 setter not even coming close to covering the line so hoping for something similar. I originally was leaning Tsonga with the games but backflipped on that in a sense.

    I've been doing a bit of thinking about a standard chase system seeing i'm striking at pretty much 50%. Do you have much experience with those? I know there's some complicated ones but i was thinking a basic double your stake until you win and reset kind of system. It seems relatively low risk as long as i keep my units to 5%
    It might seem low risk, but it is possibly the worst system in the world!
    Your 4th bet is 40% of your bank, leaving you 25% of your bank if you lose. If you are backing things near $2.00 you are around a 1 in 16 chance of losing 4 in a row, and decimating your bank. There is no staking system that recovers from long term losing selections. There are some good staking systems for increasing profit if you have long term winning selections. Betting 5% of your bank on 50/50 chances is actually considered very aggressive if you are hoping to bet for a long period of time. You will find staking systems that will stretch a bank a bit further on long term losing selections, but you will NEVER find one that turns long term losing selections into a profit.

    I was at Adelaide Casino for a footytrip in 1984. I overheard a guy on the phone YELL this to his girlfriend/wife:
    "HONEY, I'M COMING HOME, F*%@!!!! THEY TOLD ME I COULDN'T LOSE!! F*%@ THEM, F*%@ THEM, F*%@ THEM!!! I BET $50 ON THE FIRST BET, IT LOST, THEY SAID DOUBLE UP, YOU CAN'T LOSE. THEN I LOST $100, THEN $200, THEN $400, THEN $800. I CAME HERE WITH $1400 FOR 2 DAYS, I'VE BEEN HERE 10 MINS, AND I'VE LOST ALL MY MONEY!!!!! F****%%%%@@@@!!!!! I'M COMING HOME ON THE NEXT BUS!!!"
    Doubling up really sucks as a system.

    ps - I wanted to ask him how he bet $1,550 when he only came with $1,400, but I figured he must have borrowed off his dopey mates, and I'd only get a punch on the nose for my troubles!
    Last edited by Rowsus; 23-01-2013 at 6:49pm.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  2. #42
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    So "I'm due" just won't cut it here?

    I'm actually quite new to betting the way I am and making the type of picks I am, line bets, over/unders etc around $2 aren't usually my style and aiming for 56% or whatever they tell me the best cappers strike at seems quite feasible to me long term...how true that is is another thing though of course.

    I don't mind it actually, frequent bets and a lot less variation than going all in like i have in the past...haven't reaped a profit yet but enjoy sports that much more when i have something invested.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    So "I'm due" just won't cut it here?

    I'm actually quite new to betting the way I am and making the type of picks I am, line bets, over/unders etc around $2 aren't usually my style and aiming for 56% or whatever they tell me the best cappers strike at seems quite feasible to me long term...how true that is is another thing though of course.

    I don't mind it actually, frequent bets and a lot less variation than going all in like i have in the past...haven't reaped a profit yet but enjoy sports that much more when i have something invested.
    NO! "I'm due" is the song the suckers sing on their way to the poor house!

    There's no doubt, having something riding on the result really adds to the viewing pleasure. It's one of the things that hooked people into my footyquad syndicate all those years ago. You could watch a Fre V Bulldogs game, and actually care about the result. The fact we have made a profit every year bar one is just the icing on the cake!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  4. #44
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    Oh yes I remember now, you had that big score late last year? A quaddie syndicate sounds good actually but to make it worth it for all involved i'm guessing you gotta go for the big tuna rather than the small *insert small fish here*.

    If i was to get 4 of my mates involved on a weekly, what would you suggest as a weekly outlay and percentage (of the quaddie) to aim for?
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  5. #45
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    2 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Oh yes I remember now, you had that big score late last year? A quaddie syndicate sounds good actually but to make it worth it for all involved i'm guessing you gotta go for the big tuna rather than the small *insert small fish here*.

    If i was to get 4 of my mates involved on a weekly, what would you suggest as a weekly outlay and percentage (of the quaddie) to aim for?
    I'll be totally honest. One of the things I based our syndicate on, was the fact that people betting around $200 or less on the footyquad made up 95% of the pool and had little or no hope of long term success. It's a little difficult to explain the maths, I am hopeless at explaining things, but I'll try.
    Ignoring flexi-betting for a moment, because it wasn't even a twinkle in the TAB's eye when we started, $200 gives you 400 units to bet. The 4th root of 400 is around 4.47. So you get to pick 4.47 brackets per game, per week. Or more simply 5 x 5 x 4 x 4 brackets per week. This represents 2 games where you have 60 points to predict the result, and 2 games where you have 48 points. This presents you with 3 problems!
    Problem 1 - If you aim to get 3 small quaddies each year in the hope of a profit (let's say you want to double your money) you need to get 3 that pay around 24 x 200 x 2 = $9,600 needed back. $9,600 x 2 (because you are betting $0.50) = $19,200 / 3 = $6,400. So you need to hit 3 that pay around $6,400 each. For the footyquad to pay that much, which it regularly does, you need either one result around approximately 50 points removed from the betting line. ie if Fre are playing Bulldogs, and the betting line is Fre -25pts, you need the Bulldogs to win by around 25 to 30 points, and the other results to fall within 20 to 30 points of the line. If you are betting close to the line odds, and you use that game as one of your 5 bracket games, you will have Freo 1 to 48, Bulldogs 1 to 12. You lose. The other scenarios that pay around $6,400 involve the other results getting further from the line, and the Fre v Bull game getting closer. The problem is, that so many punters cover close to the lines, that when every result is within 1 or 2 point brackets of the line the Div falls to around $1-$2,000. It doesn't happen often enough for you to get the 7 or 8 quads you'll need to break even. You might need say, 2 or 3 resuts that fall 3 point brackets from the line. But what are the chances of you covering those in the right directions? Very slim indeed!
    Problem 2 - Okay, so now you realise you can't win on a regular yearly basis shooting at low dividends. So you decide to shoot at 1 dividend for the year, to get your $10,000 result you want, ie a $20,000 dividend. To get a $20k dividend you need 2 results around 50 to 60 points from the line! Or 1 50 points from the line and 2 others around 30 or just over. The problem is, you only have 2 lots of 48 points, and 2 lots of 60 points to play with. That means if you are betting near the lines, you can only go 24 and 30 points either side. you'll be lucky to cover 1 of these results, let alone 3! So you start shifting things around to cover these outcomes. "I won't take Fre 1-48, Bullies 1-12. I will take Fre 1-24, Bullies 1-36!" So you not only have to pick the right games of the 4 to use your 5 brackets instead of your 4 brackets, you have to know what direction to shift the brackets in, and in what games! There 6 ways to choose which games have the 5 brackets. There are 4 ways to choose which games you to shift away from the line. There are 8 ways to choose which direction that shift takes (ie toward Bullies winning, or Freo walloping them). 6 x 4 x 8 = 192 decisions, that you not only need to get right, but you have to hope you shifted them far enough! You will get it right about once every 5 to 8 seasons!
    Problem 3 - Predicting the results. Back in the simple days, when we had only 16 teams, I challenged my friends to what seemed like a simple task. I would give them 81 points per game (I threw in the extra point to cover the draw in most games) and bet them even money they couldn't get all the games right. ie in the Fre v Bull game they might use their 81 points like this. give me Fre 0 - 60, Bullies 1 - 20 - 81 point spread. Very few accepted the challenge. No one that did ever collected. I even on one occassion, to give an unhappy customer a chance to win their money back increased to a 101 point spread. Nope, he lost again. Now think of what you are trying to do. Yes, you only have 4 games, but you only have 48, 48, 60, 60 points to work with!

    Some people and syndicates concentrate on weeks where there seems to be a gimme game, cutting the need to predict down to supposedly 3 games. ie Coll v GWS, Coll $1.01 line -73pts. They think they can be smart, and only take Coll 73+, or also throw in the 61-72 bracket. All I say is, welcome aboard, suckers!
    Look at what they are actually doing. Collingwood are rated an even money chance to win 73+. So many of them load up on Collingwood 73+ in the footyquad as a banker, that you end up with nearly 50% of the money invested on that bracket, and 25% on the 61-72 bracket! The problem is, you have to allow for the TAB's take out, when figuring the price they are taking. They are in effect taking $1.50 about an even money chance. It blows the odds of say, the 37 - 48 bracket out to around $12, when if you try and back that bracket at fixed odds on sportsbet you will only get around $6 - $7!!! Our biggest collects have been when there has been a Coll V GWS type game. $1.01, -73.5pts, and the Collingwood type team win by a low margin, even 5 goals.

    One last point. Flexi betting will increase your brackets, but water your dividend down. It doesn't make it any easier to make a profit, if you are still playing one big multiple. If you spread your brackets to 7 in each game, to cover my 80 points scenario you are now covering 7 x 7 x 7 x 7 = 2,401 combinations with your $200, and only getting 8.33% of the dividend. I hope you can see where that leads. more collects, but less return, still equals a loss.

    So in summary, if you and your mates want to spend $200 each week, to try and get the footyquad, think WAY outside the box! Otherwise you just throwing your money away. I might have something I can give you that will help. I just have to check it isn't too close to what our syndicate is doing now. It's an Excel program I wrote for a friend a few years back. It allows for you to say how much you want to bet, and in which way you will slant your money. ie - "I have a sneaky suspicion that the Bullies might upset Freo this week."
    Last edited by Rowsus; 23-01-2013 at 9:37pm.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  6. #46
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    Awesome read and thanks for the insight. It kinda feels like if you're gonna get it, make it worth it and don't worry too much about the standardish ones that everyone will get or you'll just miss out on anyway. Being able to tip 50pts off the line would be some kind of challenge but i guess it's similar to getting that $20 horse in your quaddie (which me and 3 mates did not long ago ).

    Might have to see if my mates are keen to get involved but might go with the gamblers who like the long shots rather than the 'safees'.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    2U over 37.5 games @ $1.65
    1U Roger to win 3-1 @ $3.00
    Can't see the first one not paying and the second one is every chance as well.

    For me, i'm playing catch up!
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Awesome read and thanks for the insight. It kinda feels like if you're gonna get it, make it worth it and don't worry too much about the standardish ones that everyone will get or you'll just miss out on anyway. Being able to tip 50pts off the line would be some kind of challenge but i guess it's similar to getting that $20 horse in your quaddie (which me and 3 mates did not long ago ).

    Might have to see if my mates are keen to get involved but might go with the gamblers who like the long shots rather than the 'safees'.
    Spot on. Same principle applies in the racing quad as applies in the footyquad. I laugh at guys that tip $100 into the racing quad each week, only to take the first 3 or 4 favs in each leg. If they are really daring they throw in a $14 pop somewhere. Bottom line, can't win long term, stop throwing your money away! You'll get it infrequently, and it will only be a smallish profit when you do. They'll shake their head when they hear someone collected a $10,000 or $15,000 quady, and ask "Why can't I do that?". My simple response is - "Look at your ticket. How many combinations have you covered that will pay $10,000 or more? None? That's why you can't do that!" It's a real DUHHHH! situation. You can't catch marlins when your fishing for flatheads off Mordialloc Pier!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  9. #49
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    You know that scenario just happens way too often. I'll hit the pub with the boys once a month and have a few bets while we're there. There'll be one guy who puts on a 5 or 10% flexi tri and wonder why he never has a big win while the guy who takes the roughies or goes for 1000% tri's will have the odd big score. Obviously the second guy has a much higher variance but if you're willing to lose a couple of hundred while you're there might as well make it worth it.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  10. #50
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Really should have had more units on this. It seemed crazy odds!

    ytd 4/3 total U bet 12, total U returned 17.16 +5.16U p.o.t. 43.0%

    Still have my Arsenel bet alive as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Roger holds an 8-3 record over Jo Willy, and that drops down to 7-2 on Harcourt.
    Jo Willy has slowly been getting "closer" to Roger over the years, so I think he can take a set off him.

    I'll back:
    2U over 37.5 games @ $1.65
    1U Roger to win 3-1 @ $3.00

    See what I did there, IDIG? We can both win! cheer home a 38 game match!

    A-League
    CC v Ade, MV v SFC, WS v MH, P v B, W v N
    Taking a formula 4 multi on each of the favs coupled with draw.
    Odds: $1.19, $1.20, $1.18, $1.33, $1.42.
    1U per combination, total outlay 5U - odds range from $2.24 to $2.70.
    ytd 5/4 - total U bet 15, total returned 20.46, profit/loss +5.46U, p.o.t. +36.4%

    Arsenel bet to finalise in the next 8 hours.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  11. #51
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    So when you tipped it, you thought the horse would be good enough to overcome the owners/trainers poor choice of jockey?
    The ride he did was shocking. And yeah horse is a good one watch out for future runs.
    SuperCoach:  4,558 (2016)  10,068 (2015)  722 (2014)  29 (2013)  474 (2012)  925 (2011) 


  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    ytd 5/4 - total U bet 15, total returned 20.46, profit/loss +5.46U, p.o.t. +36.4%

    Arsenel bet to finalise in the next 8 hours.
    Cash arsenal

    1u - bulls/spurs/heat $ 1.83

    Short home faves in the nba are a recipe for disaster! Lol
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 


  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Really should have had more units on this. It seemed crazy odds!

    ytd 4/3 total U bet 12, total U returned 17.16 +5.16U p.o.t. 43.0%

    Still have my Arsenel bet alive as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Cash arsenal

    1u - bulls/spurs/heat $ 1.83

    Short home faves in the nba are a recipe for disaster! Lol
    Yep, 1-1 at the half, then bing, bang, bung, all of a sudden it's 5-1

    ytd 6/4 - total bet 17, total returned 23.98, profit/loss +6.98U, p.o.t. +41.1%
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    2-2 (-0.23U)

    For tonight i'm on 1U - Federer v Tsonga under 38.5 games @ 1.93
    and 1U - Lakers @ Memphis under 188.5 @ 1.91
    1u - bulls/spurs/heat $ 1.83

    YTD: 9-8 (+0.85U)
    1-2 for 1.17U loss

    Ytd: 10-10 (-0.32U)
    *grumble grumble*
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 


  15. #55
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    Orlando v Toronto NBA

    2U Orlando -3.5 @ $1.80
    1U Orlando 1-10 @ $2.35

    ytd 6/4 - total bet 17, total returned 23.98, profit/loss +6.98U, p.o.t. +41.1%

    with an A-League multi to be decided on the weekend.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  16. #56
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    Nba ooh welcome to the dark side
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 


  17. #57
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    1u - LAC -6 v phx @ 1.92

    Almost never bet on these days when theres only a few games on but clips are coming off 2 losses n have touched up the suns a couple of times this season already.

    Ytd: 10-10 (-0.32U)
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 


  18. #58
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    Now i know why i dont bet on these days lol. Didnt know cp3 wasnt playing though..
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 


  19. #59
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    1U - federer v murray @ 2.20
    1u - perth wildcats -10.5 v crocs @ 1.90
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 


  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Orlando v Toronto NBA

    2U Orlando -3.5 @ $1.80
    1U Orlando 1-10 @ $2.35

    ytd 6/4 - total bet 17, total returned 23.98, profit/loss +6.98U, p.o.t. +41.1%

    with an A-League multi to be decided on the weekend.
    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Nba ooh welcome to the dark side
    LOL, and I may not be back to the NBA again!

    ytd 6/6 - total bet 20, total returned 23.98, profit/loss +3.98U, p.o.t. +19.90%
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

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