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  1. #21
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    Backs-
    Laird
    KK
    McVeigh
    Shaw
    Boyd
    Bartel
    Yeo
    Smith

    Mid-
    Ablett
    Pendles
    Rockliff
    Fyfe
    JPK
    Danger
    shiel
    Gray

    Ruck-
    Goldstein
    Martin

    Forward-
    Martin
    Deledio
    Barlow
    Montagna
    Zorko
    Dahlhaus
    Bennell
    Gunston
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  2. #22
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    I went through an analysis from 2015's winner on another site, and came across the equivalent of this thread from a year ago. Someone had summarised the most popular picks to be 2015's top scoring players, so I thought I'd check how they ultimately went. The results are interesting.

    The first figure is the player's rank by average by position in 2014 (which people knew at the time), the second is the same figure for 2015 (which is what they were trying to predict):

    Malceski 1 to outside top 30
    Simpson 6 to 11
    Hibberd 14 to outside top 30
    Smith 8 to outside top 30 (inj)
    Burgoyne 7 26
    Newnes outside top 30 to 14

    Ablett 1 5 (inj)
    Pendles 3 4
    Fyfe 4 2
    Selwood 5 27
    Beams 6 8
    Rocky 2 16 (inj)
    JPK 10 15
    Ward 12 22

    Jacobs 1 3
    Sandi 4 4

    Gray 2 2
    Goddard (not a fwd) 13
    Dusty 6 4
    Swan (not a fwd) 3
    Buddy 7 outside top 30
    Lids (not a fwd) 1


    Now a few observations.

    They chose what looked like pretty safe picks. Almost all of the choices were top-ranked players from the previous year, or very close to it. Newnes was the only breakout pick, while Hibberd and Swan were the only real fallen premium picks (with Swan helped, no doubt, by his added fwd eligibility). You could argue that a "consensus" side, created by aggregating individual coaches choices, is likely to favour established top scorers, rather than breakout players (we might all like different breakout players, so they are not consensus picks, but the established players are already known, so there is likely to be more agreement on them, hence they make the consensus side). With that said, it seems there may be an element of chasing last year's points (CLYP). More on this below.

    The def picks were horrible. Despite picking 5 of 2014's top 14 defs, none of these were successful picks. Newnes was the only breakout pick in the whole side, and this was quite successful if he was held until season's end (he was a popular SCS pick as well). Newnes was an even better SC pick given his price, not that that was a factor in choosing the above side. At the other end of the spectrum, Malceski was the most expensive def and picked to back it up with a strong 2015, but didn't even get close. The rise of the tall defenders was also missed. Incredibly, the consensus side somehow managed to not pick any of 2015's top 10 defenders!! To me, this reinforces the idea that defs are typically inconsistent, and rarely back up top ranks from year to year. This point has already been made elsewhere by Rowsus and others. To me, this analysis highlights the additional point, that even with a subjective overlay, it is hard for coaches to pick which top-ranked defs are likely to back it up from year to year (ie, few will do it, and it's hard to pick the ones that will). This is something to consider if you have several very expensive defs in your side. The consensus side also missed Shaw and Hodge, who bounced from low 90s in 2014 to premo mid level in 2015 - a couple of bad misses.

    The mid picks were very good for the most part, especially considering 2015 injuries. They went with the top 6 mids from 2014, with four maintaining a top 8 rank ("first XXII") in 2015, so that's a very good start. The two that didn't maintain their very high rankings were Selwood and Rocky. Almost all of these players suffered from injuries that weighed on their scoring in 2015, either through low TOG games or playing when well under 100% fit. JPK and Ward were not terrible picks in retrospect, although they both went modestly backwards. Danger (3rd best player by average in 2015, 2nd best mid) was a fairly bad miss as well. Fyfe managed to improve his rank, but was the only mid pick to do so.

    The ruck picks were reasonable, landing 3rd and 4th, which is fairly good. Of course, this means that the first two rucks were missed, including 2015's standout player in Goldy. Once again, there was change in the top-ranked rucks, and seemingly not in a "pickable" way, at least to most. Goldy and Martin is now a very consensus choice to back up in 2016 (I think all but Jurn have chosen this combo so far, including me), but it seems pretty unlikely both picks will end up being correct.

    The forward picks were pretty good. Gray maintained his very high rank, Dusty improved further, although Buddy suffered from injuries/mental health issues and underperformed. Lids and Swan did well as imports from the mids, while Goddard did okay but was slightly disappointing.

    In terms of implications for 2016, this is what I am taking from the above:

    - Stacking the backline with last year's top scorers (who are, naturally, expensive) looks like a bad idea. The variability in defs from year to year is well-established, but the above suggests to me that it's also hard (at least for most of us) to identify which ones we should bet on to back it up. If you're looking to pick an expensive def, it's probably best to choose a repeated high-scorer like Simpson or Enright (ideally a bit younger, perhaps ), or someone who wasn't previously a def but who has a record of scoring at high levels (a McVeigh or Bartel 2016, or Hodge 2015 type - this point was made by 2015's mid imports in the forward line, but it might apply similarly in the defs this year). I am likely to choose a couple of cheaper defs that I think I can sensibly expect to score better in 2016 (Smith, Yeo types).

    - The consensus mid picks worked quite well, with some of the most proven names (Ablett and Pendles) backing up their high rankings again, and some younger guns (Fyfe and Beams) having another good year and becoming more proven themselves. With many of the very top mids also coming at a discount this year, it seems to make sense to load up on them.

    - Starting with Goldy and Martin is far from sure to give you the best two rucks in 2016. This is not a new point, but it also seems that most people are not great at picking which ones could jump into the top ranks. Completely ignoring that point, I like NicNat as one who might be able to jump into the top two, especially with c. 20% upside if he can match the TOG of Goldy, Martin and others.

    - The forwards look like another area where the top-ranked players are likely to be more stable, especially if you include the mid imports into that group - so investing selectively in some of the more expensive names there may make sense. My main reservation is that some of the very top priced names are not that proven, or somewhat overpriced in my view. Montagna, Lids and Barlow seem like reasonable picks in this light (Barlow at much better pricing, but perhaps with greater risk). Dusty looks a pretty safe bet to back up again (especially with a bit of TOG upside), assuming no suspension issues. Picking an older but very established player to bounce back (Swan last year, maybe Boomer this year?) might also work well.

    Have I missed anything? Is there anything you would interpret differently? If so, I'd be interested to hear
    Last edited by Darkie; 03-01-2016 at 6:13pm.
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  3. #23
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    Nice analysis and thoughts Darkie. I must admit a preference at this stage of pre-season for this kind of overview / philosophical piece that promotes thoughts about structure in an almost heuristic sense, rather than attempts to pick an exact team. But, heh, each to their own.

    What underlies your piece for mine is the potential for an unconscious (or is it subconscious) bias that can be at work when selecting a team that can arise from the crutch of last year's top performers. We know this by the term "chasing last year's points." I have another bias when selecting a team. Notwithstanding my earlier comments, I have put together a rough team for 2016. I thought it was bloody good until I stepped back and looked at it and realised that in the 30 I had selected there were 12 of the 26 members of my long term keeper league team!

    My take away is this - I am very aware of some of the literature on selection bias (if you are interested have a look at "Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics", Richard H. Thaler, 2015 "). And yet the pernicious little things had crept right up and got me big time.
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  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    I went through an analysis from 2015's winner
    Just for those who are new to SCS there are also some great threads on this site analysing past winners, mainly by Rowsus. Here are two of them, there are probably some more for those who are willing to go digging for them:

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...oach-Winner%29!

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...s-winning-year
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  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philzsay View Post
    Just for those who are new to SCS there are also some great threads on this site analysing past winners, mainly by Rowsus. Here are two of them, there are probably some more for those who are willing to go digging for them:

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...oach-Winner%29!

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...s-winning-year
    Completely agree with this Philzsay. For what it's worth, Rowsus' analysis of previous winners has been the best I've seen (including analysis/discussion from the winners themselves).

    Freowho did some analysis on the 2013 and 2015 winners recently. I think that is also well worth a read:

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...013?highlight=
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  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by chels View Post
    Nice analysis and thoughts Darkie. I must admit a preference at this stage of pre-season for this kind of overview / philosophical piece that promotes thoughts about structure in an almost heuristic sense, rather than attempts to pick an exact team. But, heh, each to their own.

    What underlies your piece for mine is the potential for an unconscious (or is it subconscious) bias that can be at work when selecting a team that can arise from the crutch of last year's top performers. We know this by the term "chasing last year's points." I have another bias when selecting a team. Notwithstanding my earlier comments, I have put together a rough team for 2016. I thought it was bloody good until I stepped back and looked at it and realised that in the 30 I had selected there were 12 of the 26 members of my long term keeper league team!

    My take away is this - I am very aware of some of the literature on selection bias (if you are interested have a look at "Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics", Richard H. Thaler, 2015 "). And yet the pernicious little things had crept right up and got me big time.
    Thanks Chels. For what it's worth I also prefer more strategic discussions/analysis in the pre-season, although I will happily take either at this time of year, particularly with time off to think about both!

    Thanks for the tip on the book. I have come across some of these biases from some behavioural finance/economics I studied some years back, and it's an interesting field. I see CLYP as being a reflection of recency bias and/or over-reaction. You are quite right in that knowing about these biases is only part of the battle though ... the next part is trying to avoid or mitigate them somehow.

    One idea you could try would be to pick an SC side excluding anyone from your keeper league side, until you're happy it is settled ... and then progressively add your most preferred trade-in from your keeper league side, then your second, and so on, until you are happy with the combined side. Essentially you make your keeper league selections non-selections by default (rather than the reverse). Of course, doing it this way should make no difference, but I suspect it probably will!
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  7. #27
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    Darkie, when Richard Thaler gets his Nobel Prize - and it should be sooner rather than later - you will be able to smile and note that you were aware enough to read his stuff before the award! An earlier book of his ("The Winner's Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life") was probably on the reading list of the course you mentioned? Embarrassingly, one of my former colleagues used to keep such high quality texts off reading lists on the basis that they were "too good for students." I figure some of his students may well still have a misguided belief that any good material in the course was his.
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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by chels View Post
    Darkie, when Richard Thaler gets his Nobel Prize - and it should be sooner rather than later - you will be able to smile and note that you were aware enough to read his stuff before the award! An earlier book of his ("The Winner's Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life") was probably on the reading list of the course you mentioned? Embarrassingly, one of my former colleagues used to keep such high quality texts off reading lists on the basis that they were "too good for students." I figure some of his students may well still have a misguided belief that any good material in the course was his.
    Thanks Chels. That is a bit of a concern about your former colleague! We didn't read The Winner's Curse, from memory the course materials were either textbooks that were more broad-based, or papers aggregated into "course notes" by the lecturer ... Hopefully in good faith! I caught up with a friend recently who happens to be doing a similar degree to me at the same uni, about 12 years on. It sounds like the subject choice is a lot better (ie, more specialised) now, and he will be covering some of this ground in much more detail!
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  9. #29
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    I found a "consensus" side from a 2014 thread on this site (see post 22 above for more info, and comparison against the below). I thought I would check how this one went, to see how the SCS predictions fared, and to see if there were any differences in how "predictable" 2014's top averaging players would ultimately be.

    Note some slight methodology differences in how the predictions were made (some people picked a top 6 for each position, others a top 8 in the mids, etc):

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...ht=Predictions

    The first figure below is the player's rank by average by position in 2013 (which people knew at the time), the second is the same figure for 2014 (which is what they were trying to predict):

    Mitchell not a def, 13th highest averaging def
    McVeigh not a def, 2nd
    Bartel not a def, 5
    Hibberd 5, 14
    Walker not a def, 21
    Simpson not a def, 6

    Ablett 1 1 (inj)
    Pendles 2 3
    Selwood 3 5
    Swan 4 outside top 30 (inj)
    Watson 11 24
    Cotchin 23 outside top 30
    Beams outside top 30 (inj) 6
    Griffen 5 outside top 30 (inj?)

    NicNat 7 10
    Goldy 2 5 (inj)

    Danger not a fwd, 5
    Dusty 9 6
    Buddy 19 7
    NRoo 6 15
    Petrie 8 outside top 30
    Cloke 16 outside top 30

    And some observations.

    The picks again looked pretty safe. Almost all were highly ranked in the prior season, or new additions to a lower scoring line (mids newly available as defs, eg). Beams and Cotchin were probably the two main "fallen premium" types, although neither had performed at premium levels for very long.

    The def picks were reasonably good this time. Three of the ultimate top six were identified, and the other three weren't too far off. This was probably helped by five of the six picks being newly def eligible (ie, they were largely D/M picks). No-one chose Malceski (a clear number one by season's end) and only one person picked Swallow (a popular breakout pick, who ended up finishing 4th).

    The mid picks were again quite good, especially accounting for injuries. Four of the top eight mids were identified, including Beams in his return from injury. He was the only one to boost his ranking, although Ablett, Pendles and Selwood all stayed top five, and Ablett had nowhere to go from number one! Swan and, from memory, Griffen both struggled with injuries and therefore underperformed. Cotchin was a relatively unproven fallen premium style pick, but didn't work out. Rocky (average 132, ranked 2nd) and Fyfe (average 122, ranked 4th) were both fairly bad misses in retrospect, especially given that their breakouts didn't exactly come from out of the blue.

    The ruck picks were mixed. NicNat was most popular and finished 10th, so if he had been chosen, he would have leaked quite a lot of points (25ppg to the best ruck). Goldy was a popular pick to back up his strong 2013 but finished fifth after playing lame for much of the early part of the year. I would treat that as a win prediction-wise. On the other hand, no-one at all picked Jacobs, and he averaged 115 to finish the top ruck, so that was a fairly bad miss. Mummy was selected by a few, but well behind many other options, and finished a close second.

    The forward picks weren't great in hindsight. The 5th, 6th and 7th averaging forwards were all identified, but NRoo finished 15th and Petrie and Cloke missed the top 30. Perhaps the KPFs were overestimated a little, although Buddy was a good pick in bouncing from 19th to 7th. The top four forwards were all DPP (Stefan Martin as a ruck, and Gray, Parker and Boomer as mids), as were 8 of the top 10.

    In terms of our 2016 picks, to me the potential lessons are:

    - The mids are seemingly the most predictable (and stable) line. Outside of injuries, which are obviously somewhat challenging to predict, the consensus picks have tended to perform well. Loading up on the cheap, proven super premiums would still seem a very sound move. None of the popular but less proven players (those outside the top 8, eg Cotchin) have really worked either in 2014 or 2015, with all but one of them actually declining in rank. The one player outside the top 8 mids to jump back in was Beams, who was returning from injury and had been a top 8 mid before. Libba in 2016 is perhaps the closest thing to Beams in 2014, although Libba's best year hasn't been at top eight level (yet?!), offset somewhat by his ultra low price.

    - The rucks remain volatile from year to year. In addition, the consensus picks haven't been great at predicting these changes. Set and forget with Goldy and Martin actually looks quite high risk in this context. Their ranks probably won't fall all that far (if they fall at all), but there is a strong chance you will be paying full freight for players that won't both be top two come season's end. There appears to be some chance that a very unfancied ruck will end up top-ranked (eg Jacobs in 2014, who no-one predicted to be top two). If you think you have found this one, please let me know

    - The def picks were better in 2014 than 2015, and vice versa for the forwards. You could say that not a lot can be drawn from this, although there are two additional things I noticed. The first is that the consensus side seems fairly likely to miss changes in game style and/or scoring - so it picked too many big men in the forward line in 2014, and not enough tall defenders in 2015. Perhaps that's fair enough - I would generally bet on these things staying the same rather than changing, unless a change has been flagged (like the ruck scoring in 2015). A possible opportunity is the elimination of the sub rule, and the change to the interchange cap, in 2016. Figuring out what this means for SC scoring might give you a big leg up if you can also pick the players who should benefit. The other thing I noticed in the forward/defender results across both years is that it seems to be easier to get these picks right, or close to right, if there are a lot of midfield imports in these lines. Perhaps not surprisingly, these players perform quite well, and seemingly in a fairly predictable way. These players are probably well worth a look in 2016 - so that's someone like Barlow in the forward line, and McVeigh down back. The less positive news is that there were a lot of them up forward in 2015, and down back in 2014, but there aren't many in either line in 2016! It seems like we have lost more good DPP defenders and especially forwards than we've gained this year ... although perhaps things will look different in hindsight. I guess time will tell
    Last edited by Darkie; 03-03-2016 at 10:49pm.
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  10. #30
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    Mini Bump.

    As a slight aside, I'm interested to know who people think will improve and drop off in each position and why. Essentially who will shoot into the top few and who will drop away out of consideration - kind of like Dangerfield and Watson (my biggest mistake last year

    For me;

    Backs:
    + Hurn: poor year followed a lack of key defensive help. KPP players return and WC should be a top side once again.
    - Laird: one year of decent scoring, but now a new coach and a logjam of defenders at the club.

    MIDs:
    + Tom Mitchell: Has been a Fantasy gun since birth. And not just a gun, but a gun in the mould of Ablett, Swan and Rocky (at his best). 120+ ave on the cards soon.
    - Fyfe: With a bad back comes unreliability. Can still see him dominating in patches, but unless hes at full capacity, I don't think this will be the last we hear of it.

    RUCK:
    + Mumford: Frustrating injury history. Has the potential to pull out a FULL 115 average season and will be working harder and harder on his body. Not far away from having a career season.
    - Goldstein: Will regress, that I'm certain. How far, and whether that matters is anyones guess. Scott said that Daw will be promoted to cover Goldy and metioned something interesting - he may not get a game early, but perhaps as the season goes on will play more to help out. Mentioned Daw's best position is in the Ruck so Nth may revert back to 2 rucks throughout the year. Watch this space.

    FORWARDS:
    + Jack Martin: Was talked up as one of the best young players ever pre- debut. Even above JOM IIRC. Injury effected start to career but averaged 85ish without injury/subs last year. So much made of Cordy's influence on the GCS strength and conditioning that I wouldnt be suprised to see him get a full season under his belt. Gun
    - Dustin Martin: Due for a down year. Gun player, not yet established as a true mid at the Tigs yet and still floats forward. I wouldnt be surprised to see his output regress as the next wave of SC fwds improve around him.
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  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by sven_inc View Post
    - Dustin Martin: Due for a down year. Gun player, not yet established as a true mid at the Tigs yet and still floats forward. I wouldnt be surprised to see his output regress as the next wave of SC fwds improve around him.
    Did you have in mind that he might be puffed without as many interchanges?
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  12. #32
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    1 Not allowed!

    Don't be fooled by Dustys lowish TOG%.

    Some guys can never build the tank no matter how many preseasons. I'm looking at you Jack Ziebell!

    Martin is coming into his 7th season. His fitness bases is what it is. He'll still be a great scorer but he'll never play 85% over the year

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    My predictions!

    Def: Boyd, Shaw, McVeigh, Bartel, Simpson, Birchall
    Mid: Dangerfield (highest averaging mid!), Fyfe, Ablett, Pendlebury, Rockliff, Beams, Gray, Wines
    Ruck: Goldstein, Jacobs
    Forward: Deledio, Montagna, Martin, Bennell, Roughead, Tippett
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  14. #34
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    8 Not allowed!

    I've got a slightly different take on this. Each year there seems to be a must have player on each line. In the prospectus this year they have an article on the drafting game and they place an emphasis on positional scarcity. It obviously has a big impact in drafting because once you have selected Nat Fyfe no one else can have him. But I would think positional scarcity has an influence on the traditional game. Those who didn't have Goldstein would agree. But as you can see from the table below not having Heath Shaw was more detrimental than not having Patrick Dangerfield (captain's loophole aside).


    Using PIT70 scores Shaw was 13 points better than the next defender. There were 11 mids within 13 points of Dangerfield and if you didn't have Danger as your M1 you probably had 1 or more of the next 5 players so you were only losing 5 points each week.

    Using this as a base who are the players on each line you think will hurt you if you don't have them. I have also indicated who I will start with and who I will bet against.

    Defenders
    Shaw: I think his price will drop significantly.
    McVeigh: I think he will have a slow start due to a late preseason.

    Midfielders
    Fyfe: I can't see him repeating his remarkable start to last year and will wait for a price drop.
    Danger: Starting.
    Pendlebury: Starting.
    Ablett: Starting.
    Rockliff: Starting.

    Rucks
    Goldstein: Starting.

    Forwards
    Deledio: I think he will drop in price with Richmonds tough start but will be essential after that.
    Dusty: Starting.
    Barlow: Starting. Ross might be telling the truth for once.
    Franklin: Starting.
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  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    I've got a slightly different take on this. Each year there seems to be a must have player on each line. In the prospectus this year they have an article on the drafting game and they place an emphasis on positional scarcity. It obviously has a big impact in drafting because once you have selected Nat Fyfe no one else can have him. But I would think positional scarcity has an influence on the traditional game. Those who didn't have Goldstein would agree. But as you can see from the table below not having Heath Shaw was more detrimental than not having Patrick Dangerfield (captain's loophole aside).


    Using PIT70 scores Shaw was 13 points better than the next defender. There were 11 mids within 13 points of Dangerfield and if you didn't have Danger as your M1 you probably had 1 or more of the next 5 players so you were only losing 5 points each week.

    Using this as a base who are the players on each line you think will hurt you if you don't have them. I have also indicated who I will start with and who I will bet against.

    Defenders
    Shaw: I think his price will drop significantly.
    McVeigh: I think he will have a slow start due to a late preseason.

    Midfielders
    Fyfe: I can't see him repeating his remarkable start to last year and will wait for a price drop.
    Danger: Starting.
    Pendlebury: Starting.
    Ablett: Starting.
    Rockliff: Starting.

    Rucks
    Goldstein: Starting.

    Forwards
    Deledio: I think he will drop in price with Richmonds tough start but will be essential after that.
    Dusty: Starting.
    Barlow: Starting. Ross might be telling the truth for once.
    Franklin: Starting.
    Great post. Exactly what I've been thinking about lately.

    For me it's Yeo in defence. Know he's been copping a lot of doubt on this site about his possible downside (all warranted) but to me he's one of very few players capable of going 100+ in defence, and at $440k he would give a big kickstart to anyone who has him if he does.

    Rockliff obviously in mids, though no one thinking about the game in February will not be starting him.

    Mumford in rucks. Huge risk again but one of few who could score in a way that really hurts.

    Franklin in forwrds. Same as above.

    I'll be starting all but Mumford. And maybe him.

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    My two cents


    Def:

    McVeigh
    Shaw
    Laird
    Boyd
    Yeo
    Landgon


    Mids:

    Fyfe
    Ablett
    Dangerfield
    Pendlebury
    Rockliff
    Beams
    Sidebottom
    Wines


    Rucks:

    Naitanui
    Goldstein


    Forwards:

    Montagna
    Martin
    Zorko
    Deledio
    Barlow
    Franklin

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    I've got a slightly different take on this. Each year there seems to be a must have player on each line. In the prospectus this year they have an article on the drafting game and they place an emphasis on positional scarcity. It obviously has a big impact in drafting because once you have selected Nat Fyfe no one else can have him. But I would think positional scarcity has an influence on the traditional game. Those who didn't have Goldstein would agree. But as you can see from the table below not having Heath Shaw was more detrimental than not having Patrick Dangerfield (captain's loophole aside).


    Using PIT70 scores Shaw was 13 points better than the next defender. There were 11 mids within 13 points of Dangerfield and if you didn't have Danger as your M1 you probably had 1 or more of the next 5 players so you were only losing 5 points each week.

    Using this as a base who are the players on each line you think will hurt you if you don't have them. I have also indicated who I will start with and who I will bet against.

    Defenders
    Shaw: I think his price will drop significantly.
    McVeigh: I think he will have a slow start due to a late preseason.

    Midfielders
    Fyfe: I can't see him repeating his remarkable start to last year and will wait for a price drop.
    Danger: Starting.
    Pendlebury: Starting.
    Ablett: Starting.
    Rockliff: Starting.

    Rucks
    Goldstein: Starting.

    Forwards
    Deledio: I think he will drop in price with Richmonds tough start but will be essential after that.
    Dusty: Starting.
    Barlow: Starting. Ross might be telling the truth for once.
    Franklin: Starting.
    Great post freo, I have been thinking similarly. Based on my predictions on the prior page, the standout scorers, and my thoughts on each, are:

    Shaw: well overpriced. Upgrade target.
    McVeigh: was a lock until his interrupted pre-season. Probably my first upgrade in defs unless one of the others gets very cheap.
    Boyd: very injury prone nowadays, with nine stints on the sidelines in three years. Zero interest as a starting pick as a result, although could be my last def upgrade if he looks fit (kind of like Beams last year, so you know it's a brilliant plan ). Wouldn't trust him to play too many games in a row, so I don't want him too early.
    Bartel: locked. First def picked.

    Ablett: locked, like basically everyone
    Fyfe: ongoing injury and suspension risk, plus underdone currently. PIT score comes down a lot if you adjust for likely game count, so he is arguably overpriced on that basis, and possibly not even a standout scorer. I personally think he could have averaged more if not for a slow period late last year (around the time of the Hawks game), so it's swings and roundabouts with him. Other mid picks are much lower risk and cheap though, so he will have to wait.
    Pendles: locked.
    Rocky: see Ablett.

    Goldy: upgrade target. Very limited upside to what he is priced at in my view, but significant downside. Not needed for captain's scores, unlike last year. Scores poorly against Sandi, and plays him in round four. Will hopefully be cheaper not long after that. Lobbe likely to be used as a stepping stone.

    Dusty: locked since the chopsticks incident was resolved.
    Lids: overpriced in my view, and no longer that durable. Upgrade target. Richmond also have a tough draw around rounds 4-9.
    Montagna: significant uncertainty around what he will average (see his history), but a safe bet to be less than he's priced at. Upgrade target.

    There are obviously other players I like as starting picks/will be looking to upgrade to, but these are the ones that I think are not all-but interchangeable with others from a PIT perspective.

    Freo, what do you expect Buddy to average, and in how many games?
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  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Great post freo, I have been thinking similarly. Based on my predictions on the prior page, the standout scorers, and my thoughts on each, are:

    Shaw: well overpriced. Upgrade target.
    McVeigh: was a lock until his interrupted pre-season. Probably my first upgrade in defs unless one of the others gets very cheap.
    Boyd: very injury prone nowadays, with nine stints on the sidelines in three years. Zero interest as a starting pick as a result, although could be my last def upgrade if he looks fit (kind of like Beams last year, so you know it's a brilliant plan ). Wouldn't trust him to play too many games in a row, so I don't want him too early.
    Bartel: locked. First def picked.

    Ablett: locked, like basically everyone
    Fyfe: ongoing injury and suspension risk, plus underdone currently. PIT score comes down a lot if you adjust for likely game count, so he is arguably overpriced on that basis, and possibly not even a standout scorer. I personally think he could have averaged more if not for a slow period late last year (around the time of the Hawks game), so it's swings and roundabouts with him. Other mid picks are much lower risk and cheap though, so he will have to wait.
    Pendles: locked.
    Rocky: see Ablett.

    Goldy: upgrade target. Very limited upside to what he is priced at in my view, but significant downside. Not needed for captain's scores, unlike last year. Scores poorly against Sandi, and plays him in round four. Will hopefully be cheaper not long after that. Lobbe likely to be used as a stepping stone.

    Dusty: locked since the chopsticks incident was resolved.
    Lids: overpriced in my view, and no longer that durable. Upgrade target. Richmond also have a tough draw around rounds 4-9.
    Montagna: significant uncertainty around what he will average (see his history), but a safe bet to be less than he's priced at. Upgrade target.

    There are obviously other players I like as starting picks/will be looking to upgrade to, but these are the ones that I think are not all-but interchangeable with others from a PIT perspective.

    Freo, what do you expect Buddy to average, and in how many games?
    He's mainly there because of a lack of options. The only 2 I have locked in are Dusty and Barlow. All the others I've looked at like Dahlhaus, Westhoff, Wingard, Gunston, Merrett, Christensen etc are not terrible picks but just aren't getting the juices flowing. We don't have much to judge the mental health issues on but Nathan Thompson had the big press conference with all his Hawthorn team mates behind him, got traded to North and then had the best 2 years of his career. I used to run in to Nathan through work and he's a good bloke.
    I'd be happy if Buddy averages 95 but I think he can get to 105 early and would have to cut and run if he starts to miss a couple of games. I guess the bottom line is that I don't feel like I'm missing out on anyone else by taking him. I probably fall somewhere between risk averse and rollercoaster and someone like Buddy makes me want to ride the rollercoaster.
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    DEF: Birchall 107, Shaw 103, McVeigh 99, H. Taylor 97, Pittard 96, Kolodjashnij 95

    MID: Fyfe 127, Dangerfield 124, Ablett 122, Selwood 120, Pendlebury 118, Treloar 116, Kennedy 115, Gray 114, Wines 112, Rockliff 111

    RUC: Mumford 122, Naitanui 116, Goldstein 114

    FWD: Deledio 113, Franklin 108, D. Smith 105, Martin 104, Barlow 102, Motlop 100

    It's funny tipping players to average higher than the people I currently have in my team - hopefully see this again in 8 months and see how far off I was!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beached az View Post
    DEF: Birchall 107, Shaw 103, McVeigh 99, H. Taylor 97, Pittard 96, Kolodjashnij 95

    MID: Fyfe 127, Dangerfield 124, Ablett 122, Selwood 120, Pendlebury 118, Treloar 116, Kennedy 115, Gray 114, Wines 112, Rockliff 111

    RUC: Mumford 122, Naitanui 116, Goldstein 114

    FWD: Deledio 113, Franklin 108, D. Smith 105, Martin 104, Barlow 102, Motlop 100

    It's funny tipping players to average higher than the people I currently have in my team - hopefully see this again in 8 months and see how far off I was!
    Gotta ask about Birchall. How's that happening?

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