SuperCoach Scores Twitter SuperCoach Scores Facebook
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 29
  1. #1
    Strategist
    Join Date: 01-03-2012
    AFL Club: Essendon
    Posts: 5,328
    Likes: 4,392
    Rep Power: 27131


    3 Not allowed!

    When we use the term Value in SuperCoach, we generally mean a Bargain, however value could also mean what we believe something is Worth.

    In the Loose Change article, we discussed value as in a bargain found in Value Priced Players. However, in this article, I will be focusing on the value of a cash cow, ie the worth of a cash cow. However, asking someone an open ended question like 'what is the value of a cash cow' is like asking someone 'how long is a piece of string'? The answer is we don't know as the answer will vary depending on our 'subjective' views and this depends on our different circumstances.

    With the strong interest received from the articles Floating Donut and Sam Dwyer, I now think rather than asking whether to adopt the Floating Donut strategy, we should ask the question 'what is the alternative to the floating donut?'. The alternative to the Floating Donut is obviously the cash cow we forgo or sacrifice.

    We know we will be sacrificing a cash cow, but the important question is what is the cash cow's worth or what is the cash cow's value?

    I won't go into specifics and won't get into Bean Counting Stuff, however generally our initial SuperCoach team will have about 12 to 15 premiums. Perhaps, our initial SuperCoach team will have 3 to 6 mid-priced players and therefore we have about 12 rookies; give or take 2 rookies.

    Now let's assume we have 12 rookies in our SuperCoach team and remember the equation: Team Floating Donut with Sam Dwyer versus Team Cash Cow with Cash Cow. Before we discuss the value of the cash cow, I need to highlight that your decision of whether to have a Floating Donut, may be effected by how many premiums you intend to have in your Engine Room. A few possible scenarios of the midfield with well known rookies are:

    • 4 Premiums (or 4 non-rookies) - M1, M2, M3, M3, M4, K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney (Hrovat, Dwyer)
    • 5 Premiums (or 5 non-rookies) - M1, M2, M3, M3, M4, M5, K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara (Viney, Hvorat)
    • 6 Premiums (or 6 non-rookies) - M1, M2, M3, M3, M4, M5, M6, K.Mitchell, Crouch (O'Meara, Viney)
    • 7 Premiums (or 7 non-rookies) - M1, M2, M3, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, K.Mitchell (Crouch, O'Meara) [Viney or alternative is out]

    Now obviously we don't know whether these popular midfield rookies are going to named in round 1, but let's assume they will be. To be honest, I was a bit surprised with the Sam Dwyer poll results, however I'm starting to understand why some people were reluctant to select Sam Dwyer as the floating donut.

    Let's assume your midfield in your initial SuperCoach team has 5 premiums (or 5 non-rookies) and 5 rookies and Hrovat is your worst rookie. The question is what is the worth of Hrovat, ie what is the worth of the alternative to the floating donut? Note the worth is not the price of Hrovat, as when we use Hrovat to generate cash, we need to bring in another player, thus the worth is the net change in Hrovat's price.

    We can throw up a few numbers such as $100K, $150K, $200K, $250K and even $300K. However, let's use $200K (with Hrovat's price of $300K) as the worth. Naturally, Hrovat may be worth $300K (with Hrovat's price of $400K), but on the other end of the spectrum, Hrovat could be worth $100K (with Hrovat's price of $200K); remember Tom Liberatore and Clay Smith? Now before you say why are we choosing Hrovat, well let's just say my Supercoach team with the floating donut strategy will have all of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney before Hrovat and thus by default Hrovat would be the Delta.

    Okay, so Hrovat is worth $200K, but what does that actually mean?

    A team with an additional $200K to the initial SuperCoach team ($10.2M) would be a great advantage to the standard SuperCoach team ($10M) as you get an extra premium at the start of the year, thus the additional premium should theoretically give additional points from round 1. However, assuming Hrovat is worth $200K, it would actually take you to round 6-7 to get the benefit of the $200K as you have to wait until Hrovat reaches $300K in price.

    Now if at round 6-7, you get to upgrade Hrovat to a premium then the extra points you will gain will be 25-50 points from round 6-7.

    However, remember you can only make 2 trades per round, so that means you can't obviously upgrade all of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney, Hvorat in one round, ie round 6-7. If you upgrade any of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney, Hvorat to a premium in round 6-7, Team Floating Donut will also upgrade the rookies and therefore for round 6 to 9, any upgrade from Team Cash Cow is negated by an upgrade from Team Floating Donut. Only until round 9-10 does Team Cash Cow get the benefit of Hrovat's worth and note the benefit usually only last until round 15 as by them most team will have a team full of premiums.

    Now I am trying to be objective as possible, to give you an 'all things being equal' analysis.

    While we don't know who is the worst of the rookies and I understand that Hrovat could also be the best rookie compared to K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara and Viney. However, if we knew Hrovat would be the best rookie, then of course Team Floating Donut would pick Hrovat before of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney. However, the fact is we don't know who is the worst of the rookies.

    In deciding on whether to choose the Floating Donut, you will need to assess what is the value of the alternative of the Floating Donut, ie the rookie you forgo. Now you can't just pick any rookie and hope it's the best rookie. You need to decide who is the worst of the all your midfield donuts and then assess what its worth or value against the possible gains of the Floating Donut.

    For me, the benefit of the Floating Donut is worth it. In many years of SuperCoach, I know the amount of points I've loss on picking the wrong captain and the wrong starter, ie a lot of points. Thus for me, I have no hesitation choosing a Floating Donut over choosing a potential cash cow.

    I completely understand if people decide not to pick Sam Dwyer or even a Floating Donut for reasons such as more premiums in the Engine Room. I won't even try to convince you to choose the Floating Donut over the sacrificed Cash Cow. I think if you have 6 or so premiums in the Engine Room, you can avoid picking Sam Dwyer, but my view is you should still pick a Floating Donut in other positions.

    However, you need to have a think about what is the cash cow is worth and apply the value or worth to your team and compare it to the Floating Donut.

    I asked previously in another thread, however in round 1, you need to ask yourself: who is your captain, vice captain and will Crouch start on the bench or on the field? For me: Crouch(e), Ablett(vc), Pendlebury(c). Will you have Crouch on the ground if named? Will you have Ablett as a captain or vice captain? If you have Cotchin as your vice and he scores 160, will you keep his score and bring in a floating donut or will still make Ablett captain? I'm just raising the question, but it's for you to answer to yourself.

    I'll respond to a few questions asked:

    Quote Originally Posted by siwel View Post
    I just think u could use one of your other rookies, most likely Ruc as the capt loophole and use the free spot for a rookie elsewhere most likely Fwd. WHy burn a player when you have Captain Loophole options already?
    Quote Originally Posted by mpollock View Post
    In reality we will all have a couple of players missing each week that can be used as floating donuts. If you pick most the "standard" rookies (pre-NAB) like Colquhoun (m/b), B.Goodes (m/b), *Staker (f/b), Kerridge (m/f), Terlich (m/b), Rowe (r/f), McBean (r/f) etc ... then do we really expect them to all play each week ...

    I mention these rookies in particular as they are DPP and hence more relevant to the "floating donut" perhaps then Viney, Crouch etc
    * rookie priced
    Fair point and it is up to each individual on taking this approach. Of course, you can have more than one floating donut. The floating donut in the rucks appears to only be for the Captain loophole, but you don't get the benefit of the Emergency Player loophole.

    Quote Originally Posted by siwel View Post
    Wouldn't you need Dwyer on the field in all rounds to take adv of Captain Loophole as you cant put C on benched or emg players...?
    The benefit isn't about starting Dwyer or having him on the bench, it's about having a free hit at a rookie's or a captain's score. The rookie you are not sure of say, Crouch(e) starts on the bench. If Crouch(e) does well then Dwyer comes into play and everything is negated with non Floating Donut teams. However, if Crouch(e) fails then every team has Crouch's score, but I won't have Crouch as I'll keep Crouch on the bench. For example, I then have Daniher(e) on the bench and if Daniher does bad, then every team has Daniher's score, but I avoid him. Now if either Crouch and/or Daniher does well, then I'll just play Dwyer and everything is negated. Dwyer would not be on the bench if I'm taking advantage of the loophole as if my vice-capt Ablett does well, Dwyer goes on the field as the captain, so I get Ablett's score. If Ablett has a shocker, then I simply pick Pendlebury as captain.
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  2. #2
    Strategist
    Join Date: 01-03-2012
    AFL Club: Essendon
    Posts: 5,328
    Likes: 4,392
    Rep Power: 27131


    0 Not allowed!

    Having a careful look at the 2013 AFL fixture, S. Colquohoun (Port Adelaide) could be a better Floating Donut than S. Dwyer (Collingwood). However,

    • The first question is do you want a floating donut in your team?
    • The second question is who will be the floating donut?

    I'll have a look at S.Colquohoun during the pre-season games, but remember when looking for a Floating Donut, you want players who will not play games and not players who will play game. If Colquohoun doesn't look like getting games, then he could be a better Floating Donut than Dwyer, but let's just say it's easier breaking into the Port Adelaide team than the Collingwood team.
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  3. #3
    Moderator
    Join Date: 21-05-2012
    AFL Club: Hawthorn
    Posts: 14,629
    Likes: 4,560
    Rep Power: 4656
    Moderator


    0 Not allowed!

    Yeah I actually reckon Colquhoun could get matches at Port. Dwyer a safer option as a floating donut as he is still on the rookie list at the Pies and needs a few of there MID guns to go down to get a run.
    SuperCoach:  7,008 (2017)  1,940 (2016)  2,715 (2015)  3,063 (2014)  8,473 (2013)  282 (2012) 

    That's What I'm Talkin' About

  4. #4
    Deputy Vice Captain
    Join Date: 09-03-2012
    AFL Club: Adelaide
    Posts: 3,540
    Likes: 1,210
    Rep Power: 2779


    0 Not allowed!

    Colquhoun was taken in the rookie draft, doesn't that mean he'll have to be upgraded to the senior list or replace someone with a lti before he'll get games? (or am i mistaken about rookie draft draftees)
    Go Crows!

  5. #5
    Moderator
    Join Date: 21-05-2012
    AFL Club: Hawthorn
    Posts: 14,629
    Likes: 4,560
    Rep Power: 4656
    Moderator


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Drew View Post
    Colquhoun was taken in the rookie draft, doesn't that mean he'll have to be upgraded to the senior list or replace someone with a lti before he'll get games? (or am i mistaken about rookie draft draftees)
    Just had a look, Colquhoun was taken in the Pre-season draft so is on the senior list at Port hence he can be selected without a LTI to a player on the senior list. Dwyer was taken in the Rookie draft and as you say there needs to be a LTI for him to get upgraded onto the senior list at the Pies to be able to play a game.

    That just clears it up and means that Colquhoun as a floating donut is a lot riskier than Dwyer at this stage as he is on the senior list at a struggling club. Personally I see Colqhoun as a good DEF rookie if he gets a game.

    Another great article Jay, shows us perfectly the other perspective of the floating donut.
    SuperCoach:  7,008 (2017)  1,940 (2016)  2,715 (2015)  3,063 (2014)  8,473 (2013)  282 (2012) 

    That's What I'm Talkin' About

  6. #6
    Deputy Vice Captain
    Join Date: 09-03-2012
    AFL Club: Adelaide
    Posts: 3,540
    Likes: 1,210
    Rep Power: 2779


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Goodie's Guns View Post
    Just had a look, Colquhoun was taken in the Pre-season draft so is on the senior list at Port hence he can be selected without a LTI to a player on the senior list. Dwyer was taken in the Rookie draft and as you say there needs to be a LTI for him to get upgraded onto the senior list at the Pies to be able to play a game.

    That just clears it up and means that Colquhoun as a floating donut is a lot riskier than Dwyer at this stage as he is on the senior list at a struggling club. Personally I see Colqhoun as a good DEF rookie if he gets a game.

    Another great article Jay, shows us perfectly the other perspective of the floating donut.
    Ahh cool thanks, i thought he went as a rookie for some reason.
    Go Crows!

  7. #7
    Rookie
    Join Date: 01-12-2012
    Posts: 35
    Likes: 10
    Rep Power: 121


    0 Not allowed!

    I often find that the best way to figure out whether something like this is worthwhile is to do some modelling with a spreadsheet. Based on the fixture, and assuming the rookies in a team are Dwyer, Mitchell, O'Meara, Crouch and Viney, there are only 10 rounds in which Dwyer could be used - i.e. 10 rounds in which at least some of the rookies play before Collingwood and some after (to be put on the field instead of Dwyer if we choose not to keep the (E) rookie's score)(not counting the MBRs, where the best 18 count anyway).

    Assuming that the rookies are all averaging 70, with actual numbers varying from 50 to 90 and with us choosing to keep a rookie's score if it is greater than 70, but use an alternate rookies score if it is less than 70, we can create a spreadsheet with random scores between 50 and 90 for our two "choices", keeping the first if it is >70 and using the second if the first is <70. What will we gain over 10 rounds?

    Obviously it will vary. I did 16 sets of this analysis and the gains using the "floating donut" versus just always using the first rookie's score were:

    -32 ( that's 32 points LESS with the floating donut strategy)
    +19
    +72
    +84
    +90
    +58
    +112
    +50
    +64
    +45
    +113
    +7
    -1
    +76
    +66
    +44

    Average: +51

    What this says to me is that YES - the floating donut strategy will PROBABLY (not definitely) get you extra points. But not a lot of extra points. Of course we can vary the model with different assumptions about what the rookies will average.

    The question is - How many points do we need to make from the strategy in order for us to consider it worthwhile - bearing in mind the potential pitfalls such as loss of cash rookie and having the floating donut turn into a real donut because we have less bench coverage? Any opinions? If we can come up with a number that makes it worthwhile, it would be interesting to model it backwards and see what the rookies would have to be averaging and what our decision point would have to be (as opposed to the 70 in the example above) in order to give us a reasonable chance of profiting from the floating donut.

    (I realize that Dwyer could also be used to exchange for forward rookies, but this requires that our forward M/F - Rockliff? plays at an appropriate time with the sequence of games, as well as the restrictions on the forward rookies playing before Dwyer, so it may not be useful very often)
      Quote Quote

  8. #8
    Rookie
    Join Date: 01-12-2012
    Posts: 35
    Likes: 10
    Rep Power: 121


    0 Not allowed!

    Another short note for stats junkies - the analysis above does not create a normal distribution for the players' scores. If it did, we might expect that our "profit" from using the floating donut would, if anything, decrease? I'm not sure as I haven't thought it through yet - opinions welcome.
      Quote Quote

  9. #9
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
    AFL Club: Melbourne
    Posts: 14,240
    Likes: 12,153
    Rep Power: 22456
    Moderator


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by sc2013 View Post
    Another short note for stats junkies - the analysis above does not create a normal distribution for the players' scores. If it did, we might expect that our "profit" from using the floating donut would, if anything, decrease? I'm not sure as I haven't thought it through yet - opinions welcome.
    I'm not sure if it would decrease if you had a normal distribution, and to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure you can actually apply normal distribution to SC scores at all! The higher end is more open ended than the lower end, so you end up with a skewed curve. If you used truly random numbers between 50 and 90, it is probably somewhat accurate, if anything it might rise a little for that freakish 120 point outlier that can occur.
    Nice job sc2013.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  10. #10
    Rookie
    Join Date: 01-12-2012
    Posts: 35
    Likes: 10
    Rep Power: 121


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    I'm not sure if it would decrease if you had a normal distribution, and to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure you can actually apply normal distribution to SC scores at all! The higher end is more open ended than the lower end, so you end up with a skewed curve. If you used truly random numbers between 50 and 90, it is probably somewhat accurate, if anything it might rise a little for that freakish 120 point outlier that can occur.
    Nice job sc2013.
    It's true that the scoring is open-ended at the top, but that doesn't come into play that much with rookies. I looked at 4 typical rookies from 2012: Shiel, Magner, Kennedy and Treloar and plotted deviations from the mean (z scores, more or less). It approximates a normal distribution pretty well. Means and medians are virtually identical. Proportions +/- 1 SD from the mean likewise. Thanks for raising this issue. It made me look closer at it and I was surprised at just how normal it looks. The scores may be amenable to some more detailed modeling.
      Quote Quote

  11. #11
    Rising Star Winner
    Join Date: 01-04-2012
    Posts: 224
    Likes: 41
    Rep Power: 422


    0 Not allowed!

    There are a lot of things to consider here but the biggest one for me is how many times will i make use of a "dedicated" floating donut or lets say two floating donuts to fully take "advantage".

    Some points i am considering:

    - I think i get my captain right around 95% of the time ... if you lock in Ablett (depending on who else you have in your team) ... you will probably not need the captain loop hole very often

    - When you could benefit from the captain loop hole ... what order does your captain, vice captain and floating donut(s) play in ... this may or may not work out on those rounds
    - Do you have Swan and Pendles who play for the same club? Does this have an impact?

    - How often will i get my emergency wrong ... perhaps a bit but this will get less as the season goes on

    - How many times will i have a floating donut anyway ... i would suggest most rounds ...

    - How much will i make of my extra two rookies ...

    - Will i get a donut or have to trade because i have a few injuries or rookies not picked ... as well as two floating donuts
    - How will this offset the extra points i would make from not having two floating donuts
    - How much are the trades worth if you wanted to avoid a zero

    - How good are this years rookies ... obviously the NAB is a good indicator here but remember GWS and GC will still play lots of good rookies
    - We also have some very week teams like Port, W.Bulldogs, Melboure (all debatable of course) who will play some good rookies

    - How does the influx of ready made mature age rookies impact our potential output from our extra two rookies as opposed to our floating donut gain


    As an outside factor ...

    - Life style question - to maintain a life / sc balance will i be able to be stuck to my computer 24 / 7 to ensure i capitalize on the loop holes ... i know for many hard core coaches the answer is probably yes, but if you have x number of kids, a wife, busy job etc it is not always easy to ensure you take advantage of those opportunities when they do present themselves
      Quote Quote

  12. #12
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
    AFL Club: Melbourne
    Posts: 14,240
    Likes: 12,153
    Rep Power: 22456
    Moderator


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by mpollock View Post
    - Life style question - to maintain a life / sc balance will i be able to be stuck to my computer 24 / 7 to ensure i capitalize on the loop holes ... i know for many hard core coaches the answer is probably yes, but if you have x number of kids, a wife, busy job etc it is not always easy to ensure you take advantage of those opportunities when they do present themselves
    It's a good question. Most AFL games are played at either 4am my time, or 9am (I live in Denmark). I have decided I will get up early on about 16 weekends to check on possible loopholes and late changes, and the rest I will just wear, or check where I can. I intend to employ 1 floating donut at this stage, as 2 seems over the top, so I won't be getting over involved in all weekend computer watching. Obviously a lot of these 16 will be earlier in the season, and if I am doing really well (doubtful), I will just have to sacrfifice sleep. In some ways it might seem a little simpler for me. All I am sacrificing is a good night's sleep, not quality family/friends/sport/leisure time.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  13. #13
    Strategist
    Join Date: 01-03-2012
    AFL Club: Essendon
    Posts: 5,328
    Likes: 4,392
    Rep Power: 27131


    0 Not allowed!

    Will have one more article on this, the finale article!
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  14. #14
    Deputy Vice Captain
    Join Date: 28-06-2012
    AFL Club: Western Bulldogs
    Posts: 3,955
    Likes: 1,355
    Rep Power: 2589


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    It's a good question. Most AFL games are played at either 4am my time, or 9am (I live in Denmark). I have decided I will get up early on about 16 weekends to check on possible loopholes and late changes, and the rest I will just wear, or check where I can. I intend to employ 1 floating donut at this stage, as 2 seems over the top, so I won't be getting over involved in all weekend computer watching. Obviously a lot of these 16 will be earlier in the season, and if I am doing really well (doubtful), I will just have to sacrfifice sleep. In some ways it might seem a little simpler for me. All I am sacrificing is a good night's sleep, not quality family/friends/sport/leisure time.
    9 am is not bad, you still have the whole day to yourself and waking at 8 can see you make changes. The 4am is ugly lol
    SuperCoach:  1692 (2016)  8562 (2015)  6434 (2014)  676 (2013)  5146 (2012)  3598 (2011)  8407 (2010)  AFL Dream Team:  94 (2016)  343 (2015)  390 (2014)  1406 (2011) 

    SC Overall league winners 2014: SC Elite Div 2, 1 of 25,862

  15. #15
    Deputy Vice Captain
    Join Date: 28-06-2012
    AFL Club: Western Bulldogs
    Posts: 3,955
    Likes: 1,355
    Rep Power: 2589


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by mpollock View Post
    There are a lot of things to consider here but the biggest one for me is how many times will i make use of a "dedicated" floating donut or lets say two floating donuts to fully take "advantage".

    Some points i am considering:

    - I think i get my captain right around 95% of the time ... if you lock in Ablett (depending on who else you have in your team) ... you will probably not need the captain loop hole very often

    - When you could benefit from the captain loop hole ... what order does your captain, vice captain and floating donut(s) play in ... this may or may not work out on those rounds
    - Do you have Swan and Pendles who play for the same club? Does this have an impact?

    - How often will i get my emergency wrong ... perhaps a bit but this will get less as the season goes on

    - How many times will i have a floating donut anyway ... i would suggest most rounds ...

    - How much will i make of my extra two rookies ...

    - Will i get a donut or have to trade because i have a few injuries or rookies not picked ... as well as two floating donuts
    - How will this offset the extra points i would make from not having two floating donuts
    - How much are the trades worth if you wanted to avoid a zero

    - How good are this years rookies ... obviously the NAB is a good indicator here but remember GWS and GC will still play lots of good rookies
    - We also have some very week teams like Port, W.Bulldogs, Melboure (all debatable of course) who will play some good rookies

    - How does the influx of ready made mature age rookies impact our potential output from our extra two rookies as opposed to our floating donut gain


    As an outside factor ...

    - Life style question - to maintain a life / sc balance will i be able to be stuck to my computer 24 / 7 to ensure i capitalize on the loop holes ... i know for many hard core coaches the answer is probably yes, but if you have x number of kids, a wife, busy job etc it is not always easy to ensure you take advantage of those opportunities when they do present themselves
    It doesnt take much for the captain loophole. You dont have to prepare for every game. Just the games of the players involved in the loop hole.
    SuperCoach:  1692 (2016)  8562 (2015)  6434 (2014)  676 (2013)  5146 (2012)  3598 (2011)  8407 (2010)  AFL Dream Team:  94 (2016)  343 (2015)  390 (2014)  1406 (2011) 

    SC Overall league winners 2014: SC Elite Div 2, 1 of 25,862

  16. #16
    Rookie
    Join Date: 01-12-2012
    Posts: 35
    Likes: 10
    Rep Power: 121


    0 Not allowed!

    Rowsus - you were right. I tried modeling it with random numbers drawn from a normal distribution (fwiw I used www.random.org/gaussian-distributions as the source this time) and the benefit appears to increase, not decrease. With two players averaging 70 with standard deviations of 20 and being able to use the floating donut to choose whether or not to use the first player's score (with a decision point of 70) in 10 rounds, 16 sets of modeling give the following floating donut increases (no decreases this time) in point scores:
    152
    47
    111
    12
    95
    86
    95
    52
    72
    77
    130
    123
    143
    25
    86
    32

    Average increase 83 points. So there is an advantage but it's not startlingly high. Of course, this doesn't yet take into account the fact that the rookies may well be gone half way through the season and replaced with higher scoring players.
    Last edited by sc2013; 29-01-2013 at 11:13am.
      Quote Quote

  17. #17
    200 Games Club
    Join Date: 13-03-2012
    AFL Club: Adelaide
    Posts: 1,191
    Likes: 782
    Rep Power: 1859


    0 Not allowed!

    That statistical analysis fits with my instinct that says playing the rookie scores loophole would give a lower or maybe even marginal benefit (relative to the time and effort involved) for several reasons:

    - depending on timings of games we can sub out some of our vest impacted rookie scores with the prior warning (this will mitigate the really bad rookie scores)
    - rookie scores are lower to begin with so you could easily take a 70 but lose an 80 or vice versa
    - as the season gets deeper we (1) have a better guide as to which of our rookies to start and (2) we are clearing our rookies out as we upgrade
    SuperCoach:  1238 (2016)  3623 (2015)  737 (2014)  2166 (2013)  15055 (2012)  3207 (2011)  3009 (2010)  356 (2009) 

      Quote Quote

  18. #18
    Moderator
    Join Date: 08-03-2012
    AFL Club: Essendon
    Posts: 23,602
    Likes: 11,726
    Rep Power: 9227
    Moderator


    0 Not allowed!

    Great article and as i said in the other thread, i'll be 100% running with a floating donut after seeing its benefits in the BBL. Colquhuon as Goodie's mentioned is a chance to get games so in a strategy that is meant to eliminate risks adding an element of risk is probably not in team floating donut's best interest.

    How much we'll actually gain is anyone's guess but in a game that's generally decided by 100 points or so i'll take every advantage i can take. It's not to say that teams that perma capt Gaz and make solid starting rookie selections can't win the overall, it's just that those that have two bites at the cherry have a distinct advantage week in, week out. It may only gain you 10 pts some weeks (or none at all) but it's the weeks that it gains you 100 which will happen once or twice (imo) where the true benefit will be seen.

    With the sc app, team sheets, subs, etc so easily available as well as word of mouth, live telecasts i can't see why you wouldn't consider it. It's just too easy these days to gain this advantage.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  19. #19
    Moderator
    Join Date: 21-05-2012
    AFL Club: Hawthorn
    Posts: 14,629
    Likes: 4,560
    Rep Power: 4656
    Moderator


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Great article and as i said in the other thread, i'll be 100% running with a floating donut after seeing its benefits in the BBL. Colquhuon as Goodie's mentioned is a chance to get games so in a strategy that is meant to eliminate risks adding an element of risk is probably not in team floating donut's best interest.

    How much we'll actually gain is anyone's guess but in a game that's generally decided by 100 points or so i'll take every advantage i can take. It's not to say that teams that perma capt Gaz and make solid starting rookie selections can't win the overall, it's just that those that have two bites at the cherry have a distinct advantage week in, week out. It may only gain you 10 pts some weeks (or none at all) but it's the weeks that it gains you 100 which will happen once or twice (imo) where the true benefit will be seen.

    With the sc app, team sheets, subs, etc so easily available as well as word of mouth, live telecasts i can't see why you wouldn't consider it. It's just too easy these days to gain this advantage.
    Like it mate.
    I have not entirely decided on my strategy of a floating donut or not but like you I believe any advantage you can get over another coach for the overall is a must to take up. The chance to plan to some extent around the fixture and have a couple of cracks at captain and rookies each week is very valuable and is what I am weighting up at the moment in my thinking.
    SuperCoach:  7,008 (2017)  1,940 (2016)  2,715 (2015)  3,063 (2014)  8,473 (2013)  282 (2012) 

    That's What I'm Talkin' About

  20. #20
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
    AFL Club: Melbourne
    Posts: 14,240
    Likes: 12,153
    Rep Power: 22456
    Moderator


    1 Not allowed!

    As my team changes, so do my plans. I've come up with radical plan number 3 for 2013 already, and it is nearly the antithesis of my first plan.
    What it means at the moment is, I will be playing 1 fixed donut in the first 2 rounds. This will probably alter at round 3, but may not. This fixed donut will be used as an either/or, for both of emergency and Captain loopholes. It will sit in my Def, and be used primarily as a Captains loophole tool. If it is not required to be used for that, I will then investigate if it is possible to bring it into play as an emergency loophole.
    If my team remains largely as it is now, which is laughably improbable, my intentions look like this:
    Rnd 1: K Jack - VC, B Richmond (loopman) on ground at D6 - Capt, Van Unen D7 Def emerg.
    Scenario 1 - Jack scores 130+, B Rich stays on ground as Capt, Van Unens score becomes D6 - loopman used to secure Capt loophole.
    Scenario 2 - Jack scores under 120, Captaincy shifts to Pendlebury, I then look at Van Unens score, and decide if I want that and leave B Rich on the ground, or I don't want Van Unens score and can swap B Rich with D8. Loopman used to secure a choice between D7's score, or rolling the dice on D8.
    Scenario 3 - Jack scores between 120 and 130, go into meltdown on Capt decision.
    Loopman will provide a roll of the dice, or a 2nd opportunity on either Captain or D6, every week. Where it is a bit ironic, is obviously your Captain is your (hopefully) highest scoring player, and D6 is probably your lowest scoring player.
    This near exact situation will play out again in round 2, with the teams involved for me playing in nearly the same order.
    It will alter a bit coming into round 3, possibly, but not because of any vagaries in the team playing order, but because of plans I have for trading in round 3. (which I can't reveal as yet )

    The team I have picked right now needed just $100 more to get my preferred M10 Rookie, but I just can't find the $100 anywhere without sacrificing other areas. I will just have to cross my fingers a worthwhile bottom priced Rookie pops up pre-season, like Magner did last year.
    $100 Lousy !!!!! AAARRRGGGHHHH
    Last edited by Rowsus; 30-01-2013 at 2:38am.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •