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View Poll Results: Who will win the brownlow and can the winner still come from outside of these 4?

Voters
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  • Danger $4.00

    2 14.29%
  • Sloane $5.50

    0 0%
  • Martin $6.00

    5 35.71%
  • Bont $8.00

    0 0%
  • No, the winner will be one of these 4

    2 14.29%
  • Yes, the winner can still come from outside of these 4

    9 64.29%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #21
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    1 Not allowed!

    Danger/Neale $67
    Danger/Bonts $34
    Danger/Steven $67
    $10 on each for a bit of fun.
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  2. #22
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    I know SuperCoach isn't a true reflection of Brownlow results but going on SuperCoach points average, Dangerfield (134) and second is Pendles (119), excluding Jack Grimes one game of 121.

    Pendles has also played every game so far...Hmmmm
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  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Impromptu View Post
    I know SuperCoach isn't a true reflection of Brownlow results but going on SuperCoach points average, Dangerfield (134) and second is Pendles (119), excluding Jack Grimes one game of 121.

    Pendles has also played every game so far...Hmmmm
    Traditionally, Pendles has been disappointing in the Brownlow votes he has received.
    Of course, there's no Swan there this year, to turn some of Pendles 3's into 2's, which seemed to happen regularly a few years back.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Impromptu View Post
    I know SuperCoach isn't a true reflection of Brownlow results but going on SuperCoach points average, Dangerfield (134) and second is Pendles (119), excluding Jack Grimes one game of 121.

    Pendles has also played every game so far...Hmmmm
    If that was the case Pendles would be top 3 every single year, in saying that I'll still put money on Pendles I do every year the year I don't he will win
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  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Traditionally, Pendles has been disappointing in the Brownlow votes he has received.
    Of course, there's no Swan there this year, to turn some of Pendles 3's into 2's, which seemed to happen regularly a few years back.
    He has treloar to do that now though.
    Pendles I think will struggle to attract any more than 15 votes
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  6. #26
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    Here's BeforeYouBet's count that also has Sloane in front

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    http://www.beforeyoubet.com.au/2016-...ng-leaderboard
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  7. #27
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    How do you get that gig Zagbag?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zagbag View Post
    Sportsbet.

    For example - here's my preview of the British Open golf this week

    http://asapindex.com/formpredictor/golf/et2016.html
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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pearcey47 View Post
    How do you get that gig Zagbag?
    A happy combination of knowing the right people, and being arguably the finest sporting mind in the country...

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagbag View Post
    A happy combination of knowing the right people, and being arguably the finest sporting mind in the country...
    Lucky guy; I know a bit about sport too lol
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    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Here's BeforeYouBet's count that also has Sloane in front

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Views: 418
Size:  154.2 KB

    http://www.beforeyoubet.com.au/2016-...ng-leaderboard
    Pendles nowhere to be seen! As Row says, he's not a great poller historically - I wouldn't bet on that changing dramatically this year.

    Sloane has a number of attributes you'd look for - gun mid, winning team, little competition from teammates - but he doesn't kick many goals, and doesn't poll that well historically.

    Joel is probably the most consistent poller of those that could potentially challenge Danger. If he polled well in a couple of wins to come, and Danger didn't, he might be one of the better chances to pip the favourite.
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  11. #31
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    According to an article in the Herald it seems Sportsbet has paid out on Dangerfield winning the Brownlow
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  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoggyODFL View Post
    According to an article in the Herald it seems Sportsbet has paid out on Dangerfield winning the Brownlow
    I've always wondered why they do this. I'm assuming they don't want any more bets on Danger and they're trying to reduce the damage possibly. Not sure.
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  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    I've always wondered why they do this. I'm assuming they don't want any more bets on Danger and they're trying to reduce the damage possibly. Not sure.
    It's good publicity (gets more people betting), and in many cases people just use their winnings to bet some more (ie. money will eventually be lost and return back to the bookmaker).
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  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    I've always wondered why they do this. I'm assuming they don't want any more bets on Danger and they're trying to reduce the damage possibly. Not sure.
    Quote Originally Posted by meataxe View Post
    It's good publicity (gets more people betting), and in many cases people just use their winnings to bet some more (ie. money will eventually be lost and return back to the bookmaker).
    Definitely publicity, as Meataxe said.
    It's not to stop you betting, and "blind punters" are offered an opportunity in these situations.
    Last season Sportsbet paid on Haw to win the Premiership in Round 22 (from memory). I had $50 on the $4 due to a promo early in the season, and got the $200 paid out. At that time Haw were $1.95 to win the flag. I seriously thought about putting the $200 straight back on Haw at the $1.95. It would have left me with the same downside from the original bet, of losing $50, but increased my collect to $390, for a $340 profit.

    Dangerfield is currently $1.60 at Sportsbet. Nothing wrong with the faithful just plowing their early payout straight back on again. You could treat it like Sportsbet have said, "we know you backed him at $6, but we think you deserve to have $9.60!!!".
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  15. #35
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    I put $300 on Sloane 2 weeks ago with Crownbet to win the Brownlow. Luckily he played well today to get back in front of Danger in my count. It is a much tighter year than most people think. Danger and Selwood both can win. As can a lot of others. Hopefully this has worked below but this is my count up till the end of round 19 of players 10+ votes

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  16. #36
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    Awesome effort Aaron Kirk. I'm a fan of Callan Ward as he is the one the umpires will go for when giving out votes (Think Lenny Hayes about 5 years ago) - I think he will overpoll. By the same token I can't see Heath Shaw getting the votes that many people think he will - supercoach scores dont' count for much when it comes to the Brownlow. So my theory is, the votes have to go somewhere - likely to the midfielders - Ward is that type (and the captain - how did Boak outpoll Robbie Gray last year?). And with GWS winning as many games as they have then Ward is overs if you ask me. I appreciate that Coniglio has had a massive year too. Interested in what others think.

  17. #37
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    Nice Aaron Kirk, seeing your table makes me even happier with the $50/$300 bet I placed on Sloane at TAB at 15/4.50 (W/P) 4 weeks ago, it has since come in to 10/3.25 - at the time I felt like there was a good chance Sloane would finish Top 3, and perhaps was already at the time along with a handy draw to come home with.
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  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Dangerfield is currently $1.60 at Sportsbet. Nothing wrong with the faithful just plowing their early payout straight back on again. You could treat it like Sportsbet have said, "we know you backed him at $6, but we think you deserve to have $9.60!!!".
    Now into 1.53. Maybe those who did get paid out early did throw it all back on!
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  19. #39
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    Hope your right about Sloane. I got 81-1 about my $5 preseason
    Last edited by Epidemick; 15-08-2016 at 9:37pm. Reason: Mis reresented
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  20. #40
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    I like trying to find value with the team leader bets. A few cheeky multies have worked out well for me in the past
    Rocky & Zorko are value, I like Zorko at $2.75
    Cripps @ 2.35 over Gibbs looks ok
    Pendles over Treloar @ 1.65
    Merrett over Zaha @ 1.43
    Selwood over Danger is paying $10! Think Danger wins it though quite comfortably.
    Ward/Coniglio are 2.00/3.25
    Wells @ 3.00 looks alright after his awesome start
    And the Sydney mids would need some consideration, JPK @ 7.00 could be a steal if he turns it up in the last couple.


    Zorko/Pendles/Ward/Wells @ $27.225

    EDIT: Sportsbet odds and can't multi them!
    TAB:
    Zorko @ 3.25
    Pendles @ 1.55
    Ward @ 3.50!!
    Wells @ 3.50

    = $61.70!? Jesus...
    Last edited by MC's Mix; 16-08-2016 at 9:57am. Reason: New info
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