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View Poll Results: Who do you think will win and come 2nd for the major prize?

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  • Win - THCLT

    1 10.00%
  • Win - IDIG

    0 0%
  • Win - aps1

    5 50.00%
  • Win - Ben's Beasts

    2 20.00%
  • Win - jbar

    0 0%
  • Win - kakarot

    0 0%
  • Win - Mr Young

    0 0%
  • Win - doc ron

    1 10.00%
  • Win - Rowsus

    0 0%
  • Win - Maso

    1 10.00%
  • 2nd - THCLT

    1 10.00%
  • 2nd - IDIG

    2 20.00%
  • 2nd - aps1

    0 0%
  • 2nd - Bens Beasts

    3 30.00%
  • 2nd - jbar

    0 0%
  • 2nd - kakarot

    2 20.00%
  • 2nd - Mr Young

    0 0%
  • 2nd - doc ron

    1 10.00%
  • 2nd - Rowsus

    0 0%
  • 2nd - Maso

    1 10.00%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1001
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by aps1 View Post
    There are some differences in theory between cash games and tournaments, but the maths is the same for both.

    Looking at the maths, let's assume that a flush wins you the hand. You have 9 outs or approx a 20% chance of winning.

    On the turn you have to call 1720 to win a 3440 pot or 2 to 1 "expressed" pot odds. This means that you have to win more than 33% of the time to make this a profitable call over time. You are however only going to win 20% of the time, so if the action was capped, this would be a long term -ve EV spot.

    The implied pot odds are a bit tricky, as you have to guess what your opponent is going to be willing to call if you hit. A simple way to determine if the play is +ve EV is to calculate what they would have to call on future streets to make this a profitable long term play.

    For this hand, you needed 4 to 1 pot odds (20% chance) to break even, or in other words you need your opponent to call an additional 3440 chips on future streets.

    Your initial chip stack was 4235, and you had 1705 left after the turn, which means that this is a -ve EV play as your stack isn't deep enough to get the required implied odds. You can redo with 12 outs, but I think it comes out as roughly a break-even play.

    You also have to consider your stack size. After calling the turn, you have left yourself a 20bb stack, at a relatively early stage of the tournament. This severely limits your play. Shoving stacks won't yield much of a profit and playing normal poker means all the other player who have 50-60bb's can easily call your flop/turn shoves with decent draws or even middling hands,

    If it was a bit later in the tournament, there are some other factors in play, but then I also think you may have been shoving the flop/turn - which may have been a better play anyways. The 10-20% fold equity (or more - or less at this table!!) probably makes this a profitable EV play.
    Absolute legend mate. If i've calculated it right, had the turn come J or Q, giving me another 3 straight outs i'm about right to make the call for 1720 chips (if i'm counting the 3 Ace outs as well). That would be 15 outs of 44 cards or roughly 33%. Even then it doesn't look great haha

    It would have been interesting to see how the hand would have played out if we had say 20k chips rather than 5. I know Dan said that he's not checking the river (rightfully so) but if we were much deeper, he probably doesn't feel as committed to go all in, and i then get my implied odds assuming he's good for another 3440 chips. I guess we'll never know.

    So reading from your last comment, do you think coming back over the top on the flop is a better play long term? I'm not sure what the "The 10-20% fold equity (or more - or less at this table!!)" means tbh lol, but i think you're saying that me shoving would bring a fold 10-20% of the time so i'm not having to actually make my hand to gain some chips?? Because that's getting 2x, 6x, K bad kicker out of the hand?

    Quote Originally Posted by aps1 View Post
    Oh - and congrats on the win!

    even if you did play like a donkey :P
    And the funny thing is i never ever make these calls! (i make donkey plays, but not those calls) but i figured I've been on the wrong end of these too often of late that it was my time to hit on of these. Set up my night actually, my stack didn't really go backwards after that.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  2. #1002
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by kakarot View Post
    Flatting pre-flop masked my hand. By the time the turn came out I knew I had you crushed (either a worse king or pair, or flush draw). I decided to kill the hand to save being drawn out on by not giving you odds to call. Still made the call, still hit the card Poker. Even when the diamond comes I'm not checking it for the 1705 you had behind, because that's a weak ass move.

    Missing the game while in Japan hurts a bit, an extra 5 points (say) would be handy right now!
    You see mate, that would only work on someone who knows what they're doing

    Yeah you and BB missing those weeks may come back to haunt you. It's mighty close for the minor prizes so every chance to be decided by a pt or 2

    Looking at the ITM%, you end up on the podium with amazing regularity....more than 50% of the time which is amazing!

    Games Pts Ave pts Wins Win% ITM ITM%
    THCLT 10 70.5 7.05 2 20% 6 60%
    IDIG 10 62 6.20 2 20% 3 30%
    Rowsus 10 58.5 5.85 2 20% 5 50%
    aps1 10 57.5 5.75 2 20% 4 40%
    BB 9 55.5 6.17 1 11% 3 33%
    kakarot 9 55.5 6.17 1 11% 5 56%
    doc ron 10 31.5 3.15 0 0% 1 10%
    Mr Young 9 26.5 2.94 0 0% 1 11%
    jbar 7 25.5 3.64 0 0% 2 29%
    Last edited by IDIG; 03-10-2017 at 9:06am.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  3. #1003
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    So reading from your last comment, do you think coming back over the top on the flop is a better play long term? I'm not sure what the "The 10-20% fold equity (or more - or less at this table!!)" means tbh lol, but i think you're saying that me shoving would bring a fold 10-20% of the time so i'm not having to actually make my hand to gain some chips?? Because that's getting 2x, 6x, K bad kicker out of the hand?
    Fold equity - Just the level of expected folds you would get if you bet a hand. So if you have 10% fold equity and 20% expectation of winning, you have 30% equity in the hand. Helps with EV calculations.

    Betting is always the better play long term as you have 2 ways of winning - having the better hand or by making someone fold. It will increase your variance, but I'd rather win one large field MTT in a 100, then just min cash 50% of the time due to the payout structure.
    That being said, if no-one is folding then bluffing is useless and you are probably less likely to get folds in this spot (without putting someone all-in) as that's just the nature of home games - just depends on your opponent.
    SuperCoach:  1117 (2016)  540 (2015)  13 (2014)  4 (2013) 


  4. #1004
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by aps1 View Post
    Fold equity - Just the level of expected folds you would get if you bet a hand. So if you have 10% fold equity and 20% expectation of winning, you have 30% equity in the hand. Helps with EV calculations.

    Betting is always the better play long term as you have 2 ways of winning - having the better hand or by making someone fold. It will increase your variance, but I'd rather win one large field MTT in a 100, then just min cash 50% of the time due to the payout structure.
    That being said, if no-one is folding then bluffing is useless and you are probably less likely to get folds in this spot (without putting someone all-in) as that's just the nature of home games - just depends on your opponent.
    But how do you calculate fold equity if no one ever thinks i've got a hand (i'm looking straight at you with this comment lol)

    I do agree with your sentiment about winning one large field vs min cashing often. I reckon i got a little too points focused with this comp and have probably not shoved when i probably should have, and folded my hand instead to not risk my seat. That's caused me to play short stacked more often than not and rarely threatening for the cash or win. It's probably a gift that Thanh has and why he has done so well!

    Having joined a new home game i can attest that ppl will just call down so bluffing is near useless. I have got a bluffer's table image though so do plan to just play best hand poker for a while until i stop getting action. It's so boring though!
    Last edited by IDIG; 03-10-2017 at 6:23pm.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

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  5. #1005
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    But how do you calculate fold equity if no one ever thinks i've got a hand (i'm looking straight at you with this comment lol)

    I do agree with your sentiment about winning one large field vs min cashing often. I reckon i got a little too points focused with this comp and have probably not shoved when i probably should have, and folded my hand instead to not risk my seat. That's caused me to play short stacked more often than not and rarely threatening for the cash or win. It's probably a gift that Thanh has and why he has done so well!

    Having joined a new home game i can attest that ppl will just call down so bluffing is near useless. I have got a bluffer's table image though so do plan to just play best hand poker for a while until i stop getting action. It's so boring though!
    oh I sometimes think you have a hand, it’s just that I think i have a better hand (or at least I can make you believe that)

    i think ive also played too conservative, worried about points but also the table dynamics haven’t helped. Also found the less you play, the harder it is to pull the trigger.
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  6. #1006
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    Quote Originally Posted by aps1 View Post
    oh I sometimes think you have a hand, it’s just that I think i have a better hand (or at least I can make you believe that)

    i think ive also played too conservative, worried about points but also the table dynamics haven’t helped. Also found the less you play, the harder it is to pull the trigger.
    Haha I know exactly which hand you're talking about. That Q on the turn ruined my hand as I was setting you up for a check raise. Do you store your hand history? If so, can you post it as I'd like to see how it played out again.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 


  7. #1007
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Haha I know exactly which hand you're talking about. That Q on the turn ruined my hand as I was setting you up for a check raise. Do you store your hand history? If so, can you post it as I'd like to see how it played out again.
    Is this the hand?

    Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (50/100) - 2017/10/01 20:55:28 AEST [2017/10/01 5:55:28 ET]
    Table '2030186603 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
    Seat 2: bpr020285 (7743 in chips)
    Seat 3: LaPorky (7790 in chips)
    Seat 4: Antsey (3835 in chips)
    Seat 5: k@k@r0t (2182 in chips)
    Seat 6: Tex Mckenzie (3617 in chips)
    Seat 7: Suswor (5130 in chips)
    Seat 8: slobboy66 (5283 in chips)
    Seat 9: SCS THCLT (4420 in chips)

    bpr020285: posts the ante 10
    LaPorky: posts the ante 10
    Antsey: posts the ante 10
    k@k@r0t: posts the ante 10
    Tex Mckenzie: posts the ante 10
    Suswor: posts the ante 10
    slobboy66: posts the ante 10
    SCS THCLT: posts the ante 10
    SCS THCLT: posts small blind 50
    bpr020285: posts big blind 100

    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to slobboy66 [XX]
    LaPorky: raises 100 to 200
    Antsey: folds
    k@k@r0t: folds
    Tex Mckenzie: folds
    Suswor: folds
    slobboy66: calls 200
    SCS THCLT: folds
    bpr020285: calls 100

    *** FLOP *** [Qc 5c 6s]
    bpr020285: checks
    LaPorky: bets 365
    slobboy66: raises 535 to 900
    bpr020285: folds
    LaPorky: calls 535

    *** TURN *** [Qc 5c 6s] [Qd]
    LaPorky: checks
    slobboy66: bets 1200
    LaPorky: folds
    Uncalled bet (1200) returned to slobboy66
    slobboy66 collected 2530 from pot

    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 2530 | Rake 0
    Board [Qc 5c 6s Qd]
    Seat 2: bpr020285 (big blind) folded on the Flop
    Seat 3: LaPorky folded on the Turn
    Seat 4: Antsey folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 5: k@k@r0t folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: Tex Mckenzie folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 7: Suswor folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 8: slobboy66 (button) collected (2530)
    Seat 9: SCS THCLT (small blind) folded before Flop
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  8. #1008
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    Yep that's the one, thanks mate. I've just given it a quick edit to make it a little easier to read.

    I was actually holding AA that hand and looking back i reckon there's a bunch of hands that you could have had that had me beat. Flatting from the button suggests low-mid pp, broadway connectors, suited Ace so i reckon my fold might've been ok there. I know you were repping the Q but i'm not dismissing a flopped set with a non rainbow board, maybe 5-6 if you were being really tricky (but prob not)...or of course nothing. The Q on the turn either saved you a lot of chips or saved me alot of chips

    Not so random stat request, are you able to tell me how often you have raised my c-bet after round 1? I have a figure in my head, just wondering how accurate it is or if it's been polarised because i know you like to do it to annoy me...lol

    EDIT: Also, definitely not asking you to disclose your hand!
    Last edited by IDIG; 04-10-2017 at 10:16pm.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  9. #1009
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Yep that's the one, thanks mate. I've just given it a quick edit to make it a little easier to read.

    I was actually holding AA that hand and looking back i reckon there's a bunch of hands that you could have had that had me beat. Flatting from the button suggests low-mid pp, broadway connectors, suited Ace so i reckon my fold might've been ok there. I know you were repping the Q but i'm not dismissing a flopped set with a non rainbow board, maybe 5-6 if you were being really tricky (but prob not)...or of course nothing. The Q on the turn either saved you a lot of chips or saved me alot of chips

    Not so random stat request, are you able to tell me how often you have raised my c-bet after round 1? I have a figure in my head, just wondering how accurate it is or if it's been polarised because i know you like to do it to annoy me...lol

    EDIT: Also, definitely not asking you to disclose your hand!
    Interesting analysis. I won't disclose my hand in this instance, but you are correct in that the turn queen saved someone a lot of money.

    Not sure I can drill down to see how many times I have raised your flop c-bets, but will have a look. I will say, that apart from rds 2-3, I haven't gone out of my way to attack you, just tried to pick good spots. This is partly because it would have become easily exploitable and that you have also moved away from being a super LAGgy to more a TAG. I think that I may have put you slightly on tilt with regards to how you view hands that we are involved in (especially after showing you the semi-bluff raise).

    Also good to know that raising your flop c-bets annoys you..
    Last edited by aps1; 05-10-2017 at 9:04am.
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  10. #1010
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    Quote Originally Posted by aps1 View Post
    Interesting analysis. I won't disclose my hand in this instance, but you are correct in that the turn queen saved someone a lot of money.

    Not sure I can drill down to see how many times I have raised your flop c-bets, but will have a look. I will say, that apart from rds 2-3, I haven't gone out of my way to attack you, just tried to pick good spots. This is partly because it would have become easily exploitable and that you have also moved away from being a super LAGgy to more a TAG. I think that I may have put you slightly on tilt with regards to how you view hands that we are involved in (especially after showing you the semi-bluff raise).

    Also good to know that raising your flop c-bets annoys you..
    Giving me absolutely nothing! Haha...but i like it

    All good with the stat mate, it was a high % i'm pretty sure..something like 3 out of 4 times when it's just the both of us in the pot at a guess. It annoys me cos i know you're doing it with air half the time but i'm generally leading out with air so, i guess stale mate lol

    Going back to that hand, do you like repopping on the flop or call flop and c/r the turn? I was in 2 minds as to what would get me more chips. I would say that you are occasionally folding to my reraise on the flop and checking behind me on the turn maybe half the time. (not sure if i just answered my own question there)
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  11. #1011
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    All good with the stat mate, it was a high % i'm pretty sure..something like 3 out of 4 times when it's just the both of us in the pot at a guess. It annoys me cos i know you're doing it with air half the time but i'm generally leading out with air so, i guess stale mate lol
    Wow - 3/4 - that is high if that is correct. My overall flop 2B was around 11% for these games, so it may be a bit high. I guess the way to counteract this is to 3bet me, but I'm not sure the stacks are big enough - would make things interesting tho.

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Going back to that hand, do you like repopping on the flop or call flop and c/r the turn? I was in 2 minds as to what would get me more chips. I would say that you are occasionally folding to my reraise on the flop and checking behind me on the turn maybe half the time. (not sure if i just answered my own question there)
    It depends on a whole lot of factors, but I think in general I like to 3 bet the flop If I think I'm ahead. With a pocket pair, I am not likely to improve and my opponent may. It defines the opponent's range and if I get 4-bet (most likely all-in) I can (sometimes) get away from the hand. I like to try and implement pot control - at the end of the day I only have 1 pair, so I might miss out on some value but am less likely to bust, which would be more likely to happen if c/r the turn.

    In this instance, depending on the size of your 3-bet the outcomes would most like be

    set/2 pr - 4B allin 90-100% (10% if I was trying something random or to be balanced with bigger stacks)
    Qx - tough spot, AQ - maybe call 50% of the time (maybe more) and fold the rest. But then I probably raise AQ pf, so I fold most of this range.
    Draw - depends on the odds, but most likely fold
    Air - fold

    So in most cases I fold to your 3B, but when I don't I'm most likely good.
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  12. #1012
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    Quote Originally Posted by aps1 View Post
    Wow - 3/4 - that is high if that is correct. My overall flop 2B was around 11% for these games, so it may be a bit high. I guess the way to counteract this is to 3bet me, but I'm not sure the stacks are big enough - would make things interesting tho.
    Hah! Maybe it is high but feels about right...we rarely play pots together though tbh.

    Yeah the low stacks do make it difficult for any really strategic poker. We kinda have to wait until we're 3 or 4 handed to be able to make some moves and even then, with the blinds, it's still a little risky to bet with any real meaning just in case you get caught out. It's why i've always liked playing big field MTT's, because it's not especially difficult to navigate your way through half the field and have a deep enough stack to add some trickery to your gameplay. It's why i'm looking fwd to our deeper stacked December game so much, should be good!

    Quote Originally Posted by aps1 View Post
    It depends on a whole lot of factors, but I think in general I like to 3 bet the flop If I think I'm ahead. With a pocket pair, I am not likely to improve and my opponent may. It defines the opponent's range and if I get 4-bet (most likely all-in) I can (sometimes) get away from the hand. I like to try and implement pot control - at the end of the day I only have 1 pair, so I might miss out on some value but am less likely to bust, which would be more likely to happen if c/r the turn.

    In this instance, depending on the size of your 3-bet the outcomes would most like be

    set/2 pr - 4B allin 90-100% (10% if I was trying something random or to be balanced with bigger stacks)
    Qx - tough spot, AQ - maybe call 50% of the time (maybe more) and fold the rest. But then I probably raise AQ pf, so I fold most of this range.
    Draw - depends on the odds, but most likely fold
    Air - fold

    So in most cases I fold to your 3B, but when I don't I'm most likely good.
    Yeah that bolded part is a good point. I generally play overpairs the way i did that hand..trying to not give too much info on the flop to try and gain some chips later but i can see the way 3 betting there can potentially save me chips long term. It would be interesting to see over the years which would have worked out better. I know there are so many variables that the numbers probably won't mean too much but it would still be interesting to see.

    I did think AQ for a split second but i don't see you not raising pre-flop so then thought maybe KQ or QJ. I reckon in that scenario if you're holding AQ and facing a 3-bet, you're probably running into AQ a decent percentage of the time, as well as a KQs but the way the hand played out, i don't think it's a good spot to risk all your chips. Most players would ship without hesitation so maybe i'm being a bit nitty there ??
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

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  13. #1013
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    Here's an interesting post from 2+2. As it looks like my home games are heading down the cash game path, thought it would be worthwhile doing a bit of a refresher. This is more for deep stack play, unfortunately my games are closer to 50xBB or 100xBB...is there any benefit if I buy in $200 if everyone is sitting on $50? Lol.

    Thoughts on this guys post? This is for live play specifically.
    ---------------

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CowboyCold View Post
    First off, I don't post much here, so take this TL;DR post with a grain of salt. There are very few prolific posters on here that I tend to agree with. Avarita happens to be one of them for the most part. Not that the others aren't valid, just that they play a different game or in different games than me.

    I am a MAWG rec player. I don't rely on poker for income, but I play a lot. I have played in 9 different casinos and untold underground games this year. What I am advocating here just doesn't work well at 1/2 and 1/3. Not because of the number of BB's but because of the percentage of our stack we must commit relative to the average stack size at the table.

    For example: At 1/2 with 100 BB's - $200 effective stacks, if the standard open is ~$10-$12, we can't really have a wide opening range in EP because we have to commit too large of a percentage of our stack. Same thing at 1/3 when the standard open is ~$15=$18. If we try to 3X open from early position at a full ring table to $6 or $9 in these games, the relative bet size just isn't big enough to discourage a squeeze from later positions, and our stack depth is too shallow to make a call profitable.

    In these games, big card value goes way up, so you sit around waiting for them and then figure out how to get the most money in preflop and the rest in on the flop or turn. No real secret here I don't think. Me personally, I would rather heat up a sewing needle with a cigarette lighter and slowly jab it into my eye than play in these games.

    But when we move up to 2/5 with $500+ effective stacks, a 3X raise with our entire range pre-flop becomes much more enticing. This does 2 things.

    1) It allows us to play a very wide range of hands in EP. And by EP, I mean 1st into the pot. 22+, AXs wheels, A10s+, SCs and middle suited 1 gappers. Odd by some standards, I don't like A6s-A9s as they generally only play post-flop for their flush value and don't like A10-AQ off or any other non-suited broadways. We are trying to hit flops that have the potential to make the NUTZ, not hands that have top pair or two pair value.

    2) We expect and WANT these hands to go multi-way to the flop. One of my biggest peeves is 'raise big pre so you only get 1 or 2 callers.' Why? So you can get it HU and C-Bet the 70% of the time you miss the flop and get a fold and win a tiny pot? By that logic, when you flop big and value bet, they fold and you win a tiny pot as well. What do you do when you C-Bet air and get called? Is he floating? On a draw? Do we barrel turn? c/f? What if turn goes c/c? Do we barrel river? Beats the hell out of me, but all options seem bad, especially leveraging a good chunk of our stack against unknown fold equity.

    The 3X Raise: Ideally we want to get to the flop with an SPR of 10+. When we raise to $15 and get 4 callers, the pot on the flop is $75 and we need the short stacks to be at least $500 and hopefully most of the table is closer to $1000. Weak/Tight play anyone? When we whiff the flop, 'most' of the time we simply c/f. Somebody hit that flop, it wasn't us, and you have little to no fold equity against multiple opponents.

    If we are, and we should be, playing a max stack of $1000, we can do this 10 times in a row, committing a paltry 1.5% of our stack pre, and only dwindling our stack by 15%. This is obviously a generalization and rarely happens in game. I think a lot of people who simply fold these hands pre will be surprised at how often they connect with the flop and you can continue.

    What do we do when we connect with the flop. Well a lot depends on the players in the hand. (More on this later) Play accordingly. If they are mostly calling stations, bet for value when we have a made hand, and c/call when we have a drawing hand. Most of the hands we are going to play don't start to really shine until the turn or river. Remember, we don't really semi-bluff because we are up against multiple opponents and have little fold equity.

    And that is a good thing. By having little fold equity, when we get to later streets in the hand, a lot of opponents feel committed. YES! You can get paid when the front door flush comes in. YES! You can get paid when the obvious straight hits. Why? Because we raised pre from early position. Most players still are going to put you on big cards or LOL AK and are going to look you up.

    What happens when and if players begin to adjust and fold? Ahhhh... remember our Weak/Tight flop strategy? Shift gears and c/call favorable boards and bet them off of their hand on the turn or river. Again, this is player dependent. If we find that players are playing fit or fold against us, then it's bombs away. Remember, one of our biggest weapons is that we are deep stacked and we can put our opponents stack at risk at anytime. Even if it means over betting the current pot size. Relative bet size and 'oh crap how much of my stack am I going to lose if I make this call and I am wrong' are HUGE in our opponents mind.

    Our image is also very, very, very important. Typically since we are playing so many pots, our image is going to be bad lag, weak or just plain bad early on. But when big money starts going in on later streets and we show up with the winning hand over and over, and we now have a large stack, people start staying out of our way and we can open up our post-flop game.

    'That's all well and good you idiot, but what do we do with this range in late position?' That is one of the other side benefits of this strategy. A lot of times and I mean a lot, the table will adjust and start betting smaller pre, BUT only with hands they may have otherwise limped. They can't help themselves and still bet the top of their range with a more standard bet size. Do you realize how insanely easy this is to play against? 'Hey dude, thanks for telling me you have JJ+, AKs. Really appreciate it.' I fold.

    What about the times we 3X with our premiums in EP and have to c/f the flop? Aren't we giving up to much EV? Yes, we are is the simple answer. I have no hard numbers to back this up, but I think we more than make up for that when we get premiums in LP. When the table is 3X with multiple callers, when we get premiums we can 3bet larger. The original raiseer usually isn't good enough to fold because that is weak, and we get the pot HU or at most 3-way with a huge equity advantage. Even if one or both opponents fold on the flop, we still make more in dead money than we do when we raise big from EP.

    With the rest of our range, we simply call and play the pot in position. If we can play these hands well in EP, it should be a no-brainer how to play them in LP.

    Blind Play: Here is where I am still fiddling around about what to do. Right now I fold everything except premiums and raise that range. Occasionally I will call with AXs but don't feel like this is all that good. Raising and getting paid from EP and calling and trying to get paid out of the blinds are 2 very different things. The old 'big blind special huh?' comes into play too often. Doesn't really bother me to just fold most of my range and move on.

    Reads at the Table: Another one of my biggest peeves. When a thread starts with 'Just sat down, so no reads, how do I play XY hand?' I have no clue and I doubt anyone else does either. Even worse is 'Only been at the table for about an hour, so no real reads.' Put down your phone, turn off the i-pad and jerk the buds out of your ears and start paying attention!

    Luckily I play in a lot of games where I have history with most of the players. I know their game. They think they know mine. They play mostly the same game. I like to think I play a different game against them based on what my image at the time is. For the most part it's easy game.

    In an unknown game with a 200 BB buy in, I get $2000 at the cage. $300 green and the rest in black. When I sit down I put the greens and 2 blacks in play for a total of $500. I call this my test balloon. Don't really care if I lose it, but would obviously like to run it up. But my first half-hour to hour at the table is mostly spent FOLDING. Listen to the table talk, what is the average pre-flop sizing, how many callers, what range are they playing, how many pots are they playing, are they calling down light or playing fit or fold? etc..... Why in hell anyone would sit down and start playing 'their' game without knowing anything about the other players is beyond me.

    Once we get a feel for the table, we can begin to put our stack to work. See if our reads on the other players are correct. Put them to the test based on our reads. And most importantly we can see how the table is going to react to our $15 raises. Hopefully they go multi-way and the only time they get 3-bet is when they have premiums and we can exploitively fold. Once we feel comfortable, we can top up to the max at the table and have some fun.

    I'm sure that I here, 'Hey, come try that BS at my table and I'll 3-Bet you with impunity.' Well good for you, but in my experience it just doesn't happen that often. And when it does, I'll start 4-Betting you with impunity.

    And no, we aren't playing bingo in a bloated pot. There are tons of hands we are still folding. Early on, maybe, but once the game progresses we can make more imaginative plays. We are generally raising pre-flop and still have initiative in the hand, especially when we start draining our opponents stacks our fold equity grows accordingly.

    Just my two cents and hopefully someone else might get something out of this style of play. It won't work short stacked or short handed or in most 1/2 or 1/3 games. But, I have had great results with it at 2/5 deep stacked games. YMMV
    Last edited by IDIG; 07-10-2017 at 8:02am.
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  14. #1014
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    Some of you might recall this hand from last night..i'm sure Dan will lol

    Below was the hand and the odds as the hand progressed. I actually thought i was a slightly higher percentage so pretty tough one for Dan it looks like. As i replay the hand in my head, i was pretty close to shoving to his flop raise but decided to call and see the turn hoping i'd maybe pick up a straight draw (if i didn't make my flush). In hindsight, my turn call doesn't look great haha.

    Amit or Row or anyone else who knows this stuff, what's the right price to call here? I've got 9 outs, 44 cards so roughly 1 in 5 so, if the pot is 1720, i've got odds to call 344 (1720/5) and should be folding to anything more?

    To be honest, i didn't put Dan on AK, so i probably would've thought a river A would've won me the hand giving me another 3 outs so that's 12/44 or $477 call.

    I think that's pot odds but in this scenario do our stacks come into consideration and some implied odds? I'm not that familiar with using implied odds but believe i should be taking what i stand to win if i make my flush into my calculations. If that's the case, how do i actually do that?

    Trying not to be too results orientated here, etc and interested to see what the numbers suggest in this type of drawing situation.

    - IDIG AdTd, kakarot AsKh
    - Preflop: IDIG 29%, kakarot 67%, tie 4%
    - Flop: IDIG 37%, kakarot 63%
    - Turn: IDIG 20%, kakarot 80%

    Hold'em No Limit - Level V (40/80) - 2017/10/01
    Table '2030186603 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
    Seat 2: bpr020285 (5588 in chips)
    Seat 3: LaPorky (4235 in chips)
    Seat 4: Antsey (4405 in chips)
    Seat 5: k@k@r0t (6612 in chips)
    Seat 6: Tex Mckenzie (4145 in chips)
    Seat 7: Suswor (4450 in chips)
    Seat 8: slobboy66 (5795 in chips)
    Seat 9: SCS THCLT (4770 in chips)

    bpr020285: posts the ante 10
    LaPorky: posts the ante 10
    Antsey: posts the ante 10
    k@k@r0t: posts the ante 10
    Tex Mckenzie: posts the ante 10
    Suswor: posts the ante 10
    slobboy66: posts the ante 10
    SCS THCLT: posts the ante 10
    Antsey: posts small blind 40
    k@k@r0t: posts big blind 80

    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to LaPorky [Td Ad]
    Tex Mckenzie: folds
    Suswor: folds
    slobboy66: folds
    SCS THCLT: folds
    bpr020285: folds
    LaPorky: raises 80 to 160
    Antsey: folds
    k@k@r0t: calls 80

    *** FLOP *** [2d Kd 6s]
    k@k@r0t: checks
    LaPorky: bets 250
    k@k@r0t: raises 390 to 640
    LaPorky: calls 390

    *** TURN *** [2d Kd 6s] [5h]
    k@k@r0t: bets 1720
    LaPorky: calls 1720

    *** RIVER *** [2d Kd 6s 5h] [Qd]
    k@k@r0t: bets 1705
    LaPorky: calls 1705 and is all-in

    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    k@k@r0t: shows [Kh As] (a pair of Kings)
    LaPorky: shows [Td Ad] (a flush, Ace high)
    LaPorky collected 8570 from pot

    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 8570 | Rake 0
    Board [2d Kd 6s 5h Qd]
    Seat 2: bpr020285 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 3: LaPorky (button) showed [Td Ad] and won (8570) with a flush, Ace high
    Seat 4: Antsey (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 5: k@k@r0t (big blind) showed [Kh As] and lost with a pair of Kings
    Seat 6: Tex Mckenzie folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 7: Suswor folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 8: slobboy66 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 9: SCS THCLT folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    "Price To Call" is great, and definitely should be used in some situations, but should be put aside in others. The more BB's you have in your stack, the more you can sort of rely on it, but even then, sometimes you've just got to work your way around using them blindly.
    Straight draws and Flush draws are really complicated to play properly, and you can nearly drive yourself mental if you use PTC's as your only or main determining factor. I am sure books have written just about only talking about those 2 situations, as you can't really always narrow it down to a simple flow chart type situation where you follow a rule if "A" happens I'll do this, or if "B" happens I'll do this.
    The main problem I have with using PTC's in a Flush draw, or Straight draw after the flop is you still have 2 cards to come, and sometimes you just have to commit. Sometimes.
    Let me explain.
    In a Flush draw you have 9 out of 47 cards left that will fill your Flush. The odds of you filling you Flush are 378/1081 or 35%.
    The chances of you filling it on the turn are 9/47 or 19.1%, and 9/46 or 19.6%.
    In most Flush draws you are hoping for a few other outs, like a backdoor straight, or two pair to give you that (un)expected win, but in general, your main hopes when you are betting are the Flush odds.
    Now, when the flop hits, you are a 35% chance of getting what you hope for, but that only applies if you commit to it! If you are looking at the flop (in general, not your specific hand above), and you are getting cold feet, or nervous, then the 35% is nearly meaningless, as there is every chance you'll bail out if you don't hit your card on the turn. Why use the PTC, if you know your likely to bail out after the turn card? Your PTC (outside of backdoor straights, 2 pairs etc) isn't 35% at all, but 19%!
    Now on your specific hand. As your most recent post expresses really well, games with low stacks compared to BB's are very problematical play, and the biggest problem is usually Flush and Straight draws. At that stage of the game, we had an average of 63 BB's each. Not a lot as pointed above, and very easy to get pot committed. If the flop had a pair in it, or 2 Broadway cards, I would play it differently to this flop, with 2 rags and a K. Sometimes you have to play by gut, or feel for the game, and your opponents, so it's hard to say "in this situation. I'd have done this", but trying to put myself in your shoes, this is how I see the hand.
    Pre-flop - you raised the betting to 2 BB's, and I don't think this was enough. I think you needed to test the waters a bit more, and make it 3 or 4 BB's. While your hand is strong, you want to see what is out there. Yes, you might just get folded the pot, but, your hand isn't strong enough to play confidently without a bit more info, and betting bigger might buy you that info. Certainly Dan would have called, and maybe even raised. either one makes you more aware of what you might be facing. You probably really narrow his possible range to PP's or A 10+, he might play a highish SC, just to see the flop, but it's more likely one of the others.
    Flop - Dan checks, you bet just over 60% of the pot, and he raises it up by another 60%. Immediately, you put him on KX, or less likely a little set, and you are left with 3 choices. Call and see what happens, Call and mentally commit, or re-raise. That 2nd one is the hardest to do, because if you don't hit the turn, you just want to get away from the hand, especially if the villain bets big. I'd usually do the first one, but if it was later in the game, or the stacks were smaller, I'd probably do the 2nd one, and hope I wasn't put all in, if the turn didn't hit. You played it like you were committing, even though mentally you may not have been there, but obviously subconsciously, or baby/family duties put you there. So I agree with your call play here.
    Turn - Dan hits you with a big bet, which was your worst case scenario. I play more of a "feel" for the numbers, than actually crunching them, but when Dan put you in that corner, I would have folded, as I played the flop as Call and see what happened. Those mentally committed shouldn't even think about it, they should just call. My "mental feel" for the numbers would have been saying something like "9 Diamonds, 3 Aces, but not all give me a sure win. He could be AK, he could hit a boat and sink my flush. An Ace might win it for me 40-50% of the time, and the flush 80-90% of the time. I'm not 12 in 46, I'm more 9 or 10 in 46. I'm out of here".

    History says the mental commitment was the right move in this case, but 80% of the time it probably ends your night. I would have folded, and try to drag my 40 BB's I had left into a top 3 finish, if I could have a bit of luck. Sometimes the mental commitment comes out of necessity "Oh hell, the baby's crying, the wife's yelling, I'm just going to run with it". Sometimes the BB's you have left just make it a "what the heck", and sometimes you just have a gut feel for it, or just want to gamble.

    Even using PTC once Dan check raised you on the flop, you call. Calling 390 into a 1330 pot gives you odds of 3.41/1 or 22.7%, which at that stage you were thinking "a flush or a A wins it, I'm a 45% chance to win it".
    Dan bets 1720 on the turn card, raising the pot to 3440. Using PTC you are getting 2/1, but are nowhere near those odds of success, you could never call Dans turn bet. You only call that if you had mentally committed to the 35% (or 45%), and I say there is nothing wrong with mentally committing sometimes. Especially when stacks are getting down.

    When the stacks are down, sometimes you just have to choose your point where you'll gamble. Some will say you should never "mentally commit" in that situation. You still have 40 BB's left, cut your losses and run. What they're not factoring in, is what the winning of that pot does. It puts you in a dominant position as chip leader. You played your role as chip leader very well, too. While after the turn you were an 80% chance to have your night ended, after the flop, with a mental commitment, you were a 45% chance (in your thinking) to take a dominant position. That 45% only plays out if you commit. If you Nancy and tip-toe in with call and probably fold to most decent bets, it's a 20% chance, and you probably aren't getting your reward, for your odds of hitting.

    I'm sure many of you will say I'm wrong, and each card turned changes the game, and you should bet accordingly. I say sometimes you just have to commit. You'd never do it if we were sitting there with 200 BB's, and someone puts your stack at risk, but in a 60 BB game, where you can quickly become pot committed, you definitely can play it that way. I don't look at it like Mike was playing the 20% odds after the turn, I look at it like he was playing out the 45% (but in reality it was only 37%) he elected to commit to at the flop. Even if it was sub-conscious, or circumstances, or whatever.

    With the benefit of hindsight the odds were:
    Pre-flop: Mike 28.5%, Dan 67%, Tie 4.5%
    Flop: Mike 37%, Dan 63%
    Turn: Mike 20%, Dan 80%
    Last edited by Rowsus; 08-10-2017 at 1:47am.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  15. #1015
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    1 Not allowed!

    Really interesting take on it Row! I'm not sure if I was committed after the flop tbh but following your analysis if I was, it was effectively the same as me shoving the flop (but not) as I'm mentally playing with my post flop odds in mind.

    Mason carrying on in the background and my wife huffing and puffing cos she has to come up from downstairs when I'm right outdoor Mason's room doesn't effect me too much but probably does distract me from giving the game my full attention. It would be a dream come true playing hours and hours of poker undistracted but alas, it's not the case it probably is why I'm more likely to go gamble mode sometimes..I know mikey a couple of times has gambled cos he wanted/needed to get off the comp.

    Funnily enough, I made a conscious decision after the last round that I'd stop playing for points and push when the opportunity presented itself. My position in the comp was just worsening week after week playing safe and the irony of it is that when I did finally decide to push, I was well behind not ahead like a few of the other times i decided to fold to avoid elimination. That's poker I guess
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  16. #1016
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    0 Not allowed!

    I agree that you need to take into consideration more that odds when playing draws, but no matter how it is presented, to mentally commit to a hand with chips behind and not take into consideration the action on the next street is just a poor play.

    What happens if the board repeats on the turn or if villain goes all-in on the turn instead of a pot size bet? Are you still committed? I understand that people may want to gamble (or have time constraints), but if you are going to mentally commit to a hand, then why not go all-in? You add fold equity to any actually equity you have. People may say that you can't shove a 40BB stack (and I tend to agree but can see merit in it in certain situations), but if you have already committed to calling off then it doesn't matter if you go all-in. I also think that a 40BB stack is very playable with plenty of options on each street and still a fair way off from the point where you need to recklessly gamble.

    You are incorrect that people do not factor in the impact to stack sizes - this should be a consideration for every action you take! I'm also not sure that in this particular situation that it put Mike in a dominant chip position (Thahn had a similar sized stack shortly after if I remember correctly ), but that is neither here or there, at the end of the day those chips were put to good use.
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  17. #1017
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    0 Not allowed!

    That's exactly why move after the flop would have been to "call and see what happens".
    The reason you don't go all in, even if you are mentally committing, is you are hoping to get away with a cheap look at the turn and the river. I guess it comes down to increased fold equity versus possible chip conservation.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  18. #1018
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    1 Not allowed!

    Only days until the penultimate tournament!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  19. #1019
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    1 Not allowed!

    If you haven't logged in for a while, there's an update!
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  20. #1020
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by IDIG View Post
    If you haven't logged in for a while, there's an update!
    There's always an update!
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