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View Poll Results: Which Premium Point of Difference Midfielder will you have?

Voters
68. REGISTER to Vote.
  • Ryan O'Keefe (1.0%)

    2 2.94%
  • Brent Stanton (1.1%)

    1 1.47%
  • Travis Boak (1.6%)

    4 5.88%
  • Nick Dal Santo (1.7%)

    7 10.29%
  • Matt Priddis (1.9%)

    6 8.82%
  • Scott Selwood (2.1%)

    9 13.24%
  • Kieran Jack (2.1%)

    18 26.47%
  • Luke Shuey (2.7%)

    8 11.76%
  • Matthew Boyd (2.8%)

    3 4.41%
  • David Mundy (3.1%)

    25 36.76%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 41 to 60 of 91
  1. #41
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    What's this hijacking of this section?

    Just joking fellas, quite a good discussion.

    I am still thinking about the answer to the theory.
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  2. #42
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    Mundy and Jack look a good combo...
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  3. #43
    Statistician
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    Quote Originally Posted by Impromptu View Post
    What's this hijacking of this section?

    Just joking fellas, quite a good discussion.

    I am still thinking about the answer to the theory.
    Great discussion. It's called Conditional Change for a good reason. Nothing has changed in regard to the condition of your first pick. You have basically split the items into 2 groups. Your pick with 33.3% chance of success, and the all the "rest" you didn't pick with 66.7% of success. Nothing has changed the condition of your pick by revealing something about the "rest". The condition of the "rest" has however changed. It still contains a 66.7% chance of being right, but we have removed one of the items from the group. It leaves all the items in the "rest" still holding a 66.7% chance. As there is only one item in the rest now, it holds the entire 66.7%.
    It works on a similar basis with 4 curtains. You choose one, 25% chance of success. The "rest" has a 75% chance of success. The host shows you one of the curtains from the rest, now leaving 2 items in that group, that still hold the entire 75% chance. If you choose between those items you increase your chance of winning to 37.5%, as opposed to holding your original choice, and it's attached 25% chance.
    Remember, you change nothing about the "condition" of your original pick, by changing the "condition" of the "rest" group by removing a known fail.
    Last edited by Rowsus; 14-03-2013 at 10:50pm.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  4. #44
    supergirl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Great discussion. It's called Conditional Change for a good reason. Nothing has changed in regard to the condition of your first pick. You have basically split the items into 2 groups. Your pick with 33.3% chance of success, and the all the "rest" you didn't pick with 66.7% of success. Nothing has changed the condition of your pick by revealing something about the "rest". The condition of the "rest" has however changed. It still contains a 66.7% chance of being right, but we have removed one of the items from the group. It leaves all the items in the "rest" still holding a 66.7% chance. As there is only one item in the rest now, it holds the entire 66.7%.
    It works on a similar basis with 4 curtains. You choose one, 25% chance of success. The "rest" has a 75% chance of success. The host shows you one of the curtains from the rest, now leaving 2 items in that group, that still hold the entire 75% chance. If you choose between those items you increase your chance of winning to 37.5%, as opposed to holding your original choice, and it's attached 25% chance.
    Remember, you change nothing about the "condition" of your original pick, by changing the "condition" of the other group by removing a known fail.
    75% chance, 66% chance 33% chance, forget door number 1, 2 and 3 no one knows what's behind door number 4! And there lies within the ultimate choice
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  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Totally agree on the first point Mr A. The WC Mids are a gold mine waiting to be tapped. Your point about "do we dig here, or do we dig there?" is also spot on, but I can't help myself. Someone pass me my shovel, I'm going to see if I can find that hidden nugget!
    With no Daniel Kerr (knee), Sharrod Wellingham (ankle) and Matt Rosa to steal points... gives me EVEN more confidence to have a white, gold and blue jersey line up in the all important engine room.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brisbane Lions View Post
    K, Jack to pinch hit for me... I can see L, Shuey or S, Selwood or SOMEONE from WCE going BANG!
    Kieran Jack appears to be a good POD as new captain and easy soft early draw for the Swans.

    I'm have a theory of this Monty Hall, Conditional Change etc but I might stay out otherwise, I'll be here until game one..LOL
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    You guys have no idea what a wonderful surprise it is to wake up in the morning and see that discussion.
    I had no idea I'd generate such a response.
    Quote Originally Posted by OzRulesFootball View Post
    lol i knew you'd be in for a shock when you woke up and read all this
    Quote Originally Posted by Philzsay View Post
    No worries mate! I was thinking that you would wake up and think 'What on Earth has my triggered off here!'
    The RowsusFly Effect (aka butterfly effect) is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, where:


    • a small change at one place in a deterministic nonlinear system (such as a Rowsus question from Denmark)
    • can result in large differences to a later state (such as everyone's comments in Australia)
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  8. #48
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    2 Not allowed!

    If I pick a premium POD in a forest, and no-one knows who it is, does that make me wrong?
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  9. #49
    supergirl
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    Quote Originally Posted by hammo42 View Post
    If I pick a premium POD in a forest, and no-one knows who it is, does that make me wrong?
    Hahaha good question rofl!
      Quote Quote

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by supergirl View Post
    Please make it stop. there is ringing in my ears!

    Has it stopped ? :-)
    Play as Yarrawonga Wizards Fantasy Football Club in a salary cap keeper league and coming off our 2nd premiership as Pirates in FDL

    In Supercoach in 2015 ended about 15K in rankings from memory.

  11. #51
    supergirl
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    Quote Originally Posted by OzRulesFootball View Post
    Has it stopped ? :-)
    Hahaha ORF, yes for now lol
      Quote Quote

  12. #52
    supergirl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Impromptu View Post
    Kieran Jack appears to be a good POD as new captain and easy soft early draw for the Swans.

    I'm have a theory of this Monty Hall, Conditional Change etc but I might stay out otherwise, I'll be here until game one..LOL
    I really do not like this talk of soft draws. A kick arse player will score big no matter what team he is against, 98% of the time. If he is about to break out there will be noted consecutive games of consistency under his belt.
      Quote Quote

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by hammo42 View Post
    If I pick a premium POD in a forest, and no-one knows who it is, does that make me wrong?
    ..and if I pick that premium in the forest, will his ability cause the other premiums to fall sending shockwaves through the SC community. The butterfly in the forest...
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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by supergirl View Post
    I really do not like this talk of soft draws. A kick arse player will score big no matter what team he is against, 98% of the time. If he is about to break out there will be noted consecutive games of consistency under his belt.
    I agree, though I think Jay in this context was talking of Jack in terms of a pinch-hitting role, where Rowsus' analysis has shown that he performs much higher than average (26.5% higher) against the bottom 7 clubs, 3 of which appear in the Swans' first 3 rounds. Jack may evolve into one of those consistent kick arse players where he scores well against all teams, but he's not there yet, as he hasn't shown the noted consecutive games of consistency - Rowsus' analysis shows him as a flat track bully'.

    It will be interesting. Jack is in my team for that very reason. I'm hoping he will increase in price as GAJ drops in price, then upgrade Jack to GAJ at round 5 or so.

    But what if he has a 'quiet' week against Geelong in R4? Does that prove Rowsus' flat-track bully theory? Is that the time I should trade him as per my original plan? Or do I hold on until Brisbane in R6? Two 'quiet' scores in a row will undo any gain from the first 3 rounds.

    On the other hand, it will be so tempting to keep Jack if he performs well. If Jack comes out against Geelong and blasts out a top score, it might just mean he has become a kick arse consistent player, disproving the flat-track bully theory and turning Jack into a keeper instead of a pinch-hitter.

    I don't know if this 'Conditional Change' theory means I have a 66% chance of doing better if I swap to GAJ rather than keeping Jack, but it highlights the natural tendency to stick with your original choice rather than make a change. It will require discipline to stick to the original strategy, that's for sure!
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  15. #55
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    Was thinking about Kieran Jack and David Mundy as PODs before seeing the poll results.
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      Quote Quote

  16. #56
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    No love for Stanton at the moment. Not even as a Pinch Hitter. LOL
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    That's What I'm Talkin' About

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prochard View Post
    Was thinking about Kieran Jack and David Mundy as PODs before seeing the poll results.
    In similiar boat, there are a number of combinations of two mid field players that cost around 1.1 mil. together vying for position 4/5 in my side..
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  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by hammo42 View Post
    I agree, though I think Jay in this context was talking of Jack in terms of a pinch-hitting role, where Rowsus' analysis has shown that he performs much higher than average (26.5% higher) against the bottom 7 clubs, 3 of which appear in the Swans' first 3 rounds. Jack may evolve into one of those consistent kick arse players where he scores well against all teams, but he's not there yet, as he hasn't shown the noted consecutive games of consistency - Rowsus' analysis shows him as a flat track bully'.

    It will be interesting. Jack is in my team for that very reason. I'm hoping he will increase in price as GAJ drops in price, then upgrade Jack to GAJ at round 5 or so.

    But what if he has a 'quiet' week against Geelong in R4? Does that prove Rowsus' flat-track bully theory? Is that the time I should trade him as per my original plan? Or do I hold on until Brisbane in R6? Two 'quiet' scores in a row will undo any gain from the first 3 rounds.

    On the other hand, it will be so tempting to keep Jack if he performs well. If Jack comes out against Geelong and blasts out a top score, it might just mean he has become a kick arse consistent player, disproving the flat-track bully theory and turning Jack into a keeper instead of a pinch-hitter.

    I don't know if this 'Conditional Change' theory means I have a 66% chance of doing better if I swap to GAJ rather than keeping Jack, but it highlights the natural tendency to stick with your original choice rather than make a change. It will require discipline to stick to the original strategy, that's for sure!
    But remember you are paying 600k for him so he is a deserved premium and should really be kept all year.
    Yes he is a flat track bully but he is top 15 midfielder and is now a captain.
    So I'm sure your 30 trades could be better spent elsewhere
    Do I want Lance Franklin? Yeah... But Na... But Yeah But Na.
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  19. #59
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    If a player like mundy and Jack are this popular, they're technically not "PODs" anymore, as they will be in a large porportion of teams. Would rather look at players like shuey(To a lesser extent), bernell, wingard, Thomas, greene etc.
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      Quote Quote

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prochard View Post
    If a player like mundy and Jack are this popular, they're technically not "PODs" anymore, as they will be in a large porportion of teams. Would rather look at players like shuey(To a lesser extent), bernell, wingard, Thomas, greene etc.
    LOL Yes, but No.

    Don't forget Mundy and Jack are popular for this site, ie a small sample size. The actual Herald Sun stats at the time of the poll was 3.1% (Mundy) and 2.1% (Jack). Don't forget a high percentage of the entries play for fun unlike us who live, sleep and breathe SuperCoach
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

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