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View Poll Results: Which Premium Point of Difference Midfielder will you have?

Voters
68. REGISTER to Vote.
  • Ryan O'Keefe (1.0%)

    2 2.94%
  • Brent Stanton (1.1%)

    1 1.47%
  • Travis Boak (1.6%)

    4 5.88%
  • Nick Dal Santo (1.7%)

    7 10.29%
  • Matt Priddis (1.9%)

    6 8.82%
  • Scott Selwood (2.1%)

    9 13.24%
  • Kieran Jack (2.1%)

    18 26.47%
  • Luke Shuey (2.7%)

    8 11.76%
  • Matthew Boyd (2.8%)

    3 4.41%
  • David Mundy (3.1%)

    25 36.76%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 81 to 91 of 91
  1. #81
    Draftee
    Join Date: 16-03-2013
    AFL Club: Geelong
    Posts: 4
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    0 Not allowed!

    Shane Tuck is my premium POD this year. Scored 130+ on ten occasions last year. I think with Cotchin copping a tag most weeks, and with Deledio basically a perma mid Tuck will have more of a free reign to pluck marks and gather possys at will (like the 11 marks he reeled in against Essendon round 22).

    He's comin up 32 this year, but really, does age apply to a Tuck? haha
    The cream rises- 2007 2009 2011
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  2. #82
    Deputy Vice Captain
    Join Date: 09-03-2012
    AFL Club: Adelaide
    Posts: 3,553
    Likes: 1,213
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    0 Not allowed!

    Brad Ebert for me. Port's highest averaged player last year at only 100 so he's a cheap mid premium and i have a gut feeling Port will show a bit of improvement this year under Hinkley and priced at an average of 100 he's got plenty of upside (hopefully!).
    Go Crows!

  3. #83
    150 Games Club
    Join Date: 06-03-2013
    AFL Club: Carlton
    Posts: 970
    Likes: 310
    Rep Power: 1073


    0 Not allowed!

    Hasn't Mundy just reinjured his ankle?
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  4. #84
    Rising Star Nominee
    Join Date: 18-03-2013
    Posts: 107
    Likes: 37
    Rep Power: 391


    0 Not allowed!

    I've gone Jack and Dal Santo. Thinking of downgrading Swan to S Selwood and keeping cash.
    SuperCoach:  74898 (2013)  748 (2012) 

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  5. #85
    Dual Best & Fairest
    Join Date: 16-03-2012
    AFL Club: Carlton
    Posts: 3,174
    Likes: 2,385
    Rep Power: 4441


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by AngryAnt View Post
    Hasn't Mundy just reinjured his ankle?
    You talking about today? I could only find a january 30 story. Played a few games since then.

  6. #86
    Draftee
    Join Date: 15-02-2013
    AFL Club: Carlton
    Posts: 3
    Likes: 0
    Rep Power: 115


    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Great article again Jay.
    I like that you touched on peoples unwillingness to change their minds, or jump ship, from their original decision.
    It's a human nature thing that has been exploited by magicians, and games shows, for years.
    I read some psychological research on this about 10 years ago. It pretty much boiled down to most people would stay with their original choice in over 90% of cases, even if the logical thing to do to was change their mind. It seems there is greater disappointment attached to changing your mind, and later being proven your first pick was right, than in keeping your first pick and seeing it fail.
    Many many years ago, there was a game show that culminated with the nights winner being presented 3 curtains. Their prize for the night was hidden behind the curtain they chose. There was one great prize (car or holiday etc) and 2 pretty average prizes (cooking set or worse) hidden behind each curtain. After the winner chose their curtain, they were then shown one of the "bad" prizes behind one of the two curtains they didn't choose. After seeing that "bad" prize they were offered the opportunity to keep their original curtain, or swap to the other unopened curtain.
    History will show that nearly ever contestant kept their original curtain.
    Maths will show, if they swapped, they drastically improved their chances of winning the better prize.
    Why wouldn't they swap! Human nature is an amazing thing. Sometimes, even if you just have to force yourself to fight it, you are much much better off!

    Watch the movie 21 if you don't understand this. This exact theory is fully explained, plus it's a good movie

  7. #87
    300 Games Club
    Join Date: 06-07-2012
    AFL Club: West Coast
    Posts: 1,596
    Likes: 988
    Rep Power: 4054


    1 Not allowed!

    I have seen this explained elsewhere, but looks to be an illusion to me.

    here's my logic. 2 rooms next to each other (cannot see each other), each with three doors. Contestant A selects Door A. Contestant B selects Door B. Door C is opened for both players (bobby prie 1). Which one has the prize? 50/50 chance. nothing else. There is a saying, you shouldn't believe everything you hear/see in a movie or read in the papers.
    SuperCoach:  2278 (2017)  3226 (2016)  5131 (2015)  4659 (2014)  2239 (2013)  7500 (2012) 


  8. #88
    Statistician
    Join Date: 19-03-2012
    AFL Club: Melbourne
    Posts: 14,244
    Likes: 12,154
    Rep Power: 22457
    Moderator


    3 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by GrainFedBeef View Post
    I have seen this explained elsewhere, but looks to be an illusion to me.

    here's my logic. 2 rooms next to each other (cannot see each other), each with three doors. Contestant A selects Door A. Contestant B selects Door B. Door C is opened for both players (bobby prie 1). Which one has the prize? 50/50 chance. nothing else. There is a saying, you shouldn't believe everything you hear/see in a movie or read in the papers.
    There may be only one possible way to convince the doubters, and that's to long hand every possiblity!

    Mr Stickfast plays the game, and never, ever swaps! Here is every single possible combination of events for him:
    prize behind he chooses they reveal percentage result
    door 1 door 1 door 2 or 3 11.11% win
    door 1 door 2 door 3 11.11% lose
    door 1 door 3 door 2 11.11% lose
    door 2 door 1 door 3 11.11% lose
    door 2 door 2 door 1 or 3 11.11% win
    door 2 door 3 door 1 11.11% lose
    door 3 door 1 door 2 11.11% lose
    door 3 door 2 door 1 11.11% lose
    door 3 door 3 door 1 or 2 11.11% win
    wins 33.33%
    loses 66.66%

    Mr Smartplayer switches every single time. Here is every possible combination of events for him:

    prize behind he chooses they reveal percentage result
    door 1 door 1 door 2 or 3 11.11% loses
    door 1 door 2 door 3 11.11% win
    door 1 door 3 door 2 11.11% win
    door 2 door 1 door 3 11.11% win
    door 2 door 2 door 1 or 3 11.11% loses
    door 2 door 3 door 1 11.11% win
    door 3 door 1 door 2 11.11% win
    door 3 door 2 door 1 11.11% win
    door 3 door 3 door 1 or 2 11.11% loses
    wins 66.66%
    loses 33.33%

    Basically, everytime he switches, he reverses his original result. As his orignal result was 33.3% win/66.7% loss, he has reversed that to 66.7% win/33.3% loss.
    Try a practical experiment. Get your brother, mate or anyone that likes a little punt, that doesn't believe the figures above. Get 3 matchboxes, or coffee cups, or what ever can hide some coins. Let him hide $0.30 under one of the three without you seeing which one. You will pick one without ever touching the matchboxes/coffeecups. You pay him $0.10 and get to keep what you pick. He follows the rules, and reveals one of the empty matchboxes/coffee cups after you pick, and allows you to swap if you want. For goodness sakes, swap! Trust me, you'll win 2 out of 3 times. For every 3 times you do this, on average, you'll pay $0.30, and get $0.60 back. If he doesn't believe the figures, he'll think you'll win one in 3, so he thinks you'll pay $0.10 x 3 =$0.30 and get back $0.30.
    If you want to sweeten the deal, and give him an "edge", tell him to put $0.25 under the cup. "Surely you must win! I'm a 1 in 3 chance of getting $0.25, so after 3 turns, on average, you'll get $0.30, and I'll only get $0.25 back!" - Pure rubbish, on average you'll get $0.50 back for $0.30 outlay. Try it just for fun with someone, and see if it doesn't work!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  9. #89
    Director of Coaching
    Join Date: 23-03-2012
    AFL Club: Carlton
    Posts: 19,098
    Likes: 4,091
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    0 Not allowed!

    Well explained with the tables Rowus. This makes it clear
    Play as Yarrawonga Wizards Fantasy Football Club in a salary cap keeper league and coming off our 2nd premiership as Pirates in FDL

    In Supercoach in 2015 ended about 15K in rankings from memory.

  10. #90
    Rising Star Nominee
    Join Date: 10-03-2013
    Posts: 113
    Likes: 24
    Rep Power: 717


    0 Not allowed!

    Mundy.
    Cracking end to last year, brilliant pre season (his scores have been great), fit and firing and is at least 120k underpriced.
    Do I want Lance Franklin? Yeah... But Na... But Yeah But Na.
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  11. #91
    300 Games Club
    Join Date: 06-07-2012
    AFL Club: West Coast
    Posts: 1,596
    Likes: 988
    Rep Power: 4054


    1 Not allowed!

    I stand corrected Rowus - I bow down in your awesomeness. Well done once again.

    Now, if only you can help me with the following probabilities that are giving me headaches.

    probability of:

    Ablett's returns falling away as playing more in the fwd line (finishing off as McKenna said) and plenty of easy games early where he traditionally underperforms

    Franklins returns falling away in initial games due to hard start to year

    Pavlich returns falling away due to Judd syndrome (borth of baby causing lack of sleep)

    Leuy plays round 1 AND can overcome lack of preseason training

    Dangermouse is tagged more and can overcome it (unlike finals)

    Murphy is tagged an can over come it (NAB cup)

    Bartel can overcome his decline returns

    Zorko can play all year like the NAB GF, unlike NAB cup preseason where he was a little more patchy on returns

    Cotchin can overcome the tag - unlike reports over the weekend
    SuperCoach:  2278 (2017)  3226 (2016)  5131 (2015)  4659 (2014)  2239 (2013)  7500 (2012) 


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