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View Poll Results: Which Premium Point of Difference Midfielder will you have?

Voters
68. REGISTER to Vote.
  • Ryan O'Keefe (1.0%)

    2 2.94%
  • Brent Stanton (1.1%)

    1 1.47%
  • Travis Boak (1.6%)

    4 5.88%
  • Nick Dal Santo (1.7%)

    7 10.29%
  • Matt Priddis (1.9%)

    6 8.82%
  • Scott Selwood (2.1%)

    9 13.24%
  • Kieran Jack (2.1%)

    18 26.47%
  • Luke Shuey (2.7%)

    8 11.76%
  • Matthew Boyd (2.8%)

    3 4.41%
  • David Mundy (3.1%)

    25 36.76%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
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    7 Not allowed!

    In order for you to win the entire SuperCoach competition, achieve a high SuperCoach ranking or win your SuperCoach league, you must have some form of 'Point of Difference' POD with others. The reason simple is if there was no POD, then everyone's SuperCoach team would be the same.

    The Point of Differences between your SuperCoach team and others could be due to differences in the:

    1. Selection of your initial SuperCoach teams
    2. Timing of trades
    3. Frequency of trades
    4. Players traded Out
    5. Players traded In

    When I use the term 'others', it could mean the other 300,000+ entries or the other 17 teams in your league. Either way, others refers to those you are competing against in SuperCoach.

    Now we are always looking for that 'Diamond in the Rough' or that 'Needle in the Hackstack' to get a Comparative Advantage over others. There are many reasons why you could be thinking of choosing a particular POD, which may include:

    1. Loyalty to your previous SuperCoach heroes (hello Goodes and Newman?)
    2. Receiving some good mail on a particular SuperCoach player
    3. Hearing rumours of positional or role changes
    4. Basing it on your gut feeling

    If you select a POD and if it turns out to be a great decision, it's actually a great feeling. You think to yourself, wow that extra research, that extra time watching the footy, the ongoing reading in cyberspace has finally paid off.

    Now it appears to be all roses from here, however...... Picking the right POD may not be as straight forward as that. However, remember PODs can double edged and can go both ways.

    I studied a bit of Games Theory at University and while I don't remember much about the class (as I was often at the Pub), I can say it was about a 2 player game and each player had decisions to make, which may conflict or co-operate with each other. While it's not exactly the same game, think of PODs as you and others playing the game, ie you are Player 1 and the others are Player 2.

    If you decide to select a POD and there is a favourable outcome, others can negate the benefit of that POD by trading in that player. Alternatively, others may simply just ignore the fact that your POD is doing really well and rely on the alternative to your POD, which means they consider the alternative is just as good. However, note that if the others trade in that POD very early then your advantage is less (except for having the benefit of an extra trade and some points), hence the benefit is negated.

    If, however you decide to select a POD and there is an unfavourable outcome, others will benefit on the fact that you POD gives them a comparative advantage. Now the question is are you willing to trade out your POD? The longer it takes for you to take to trade out the POD the more damage there is to your SuperCoach ranking. So what do you do? Do you hope your POD regroups, rebounds and performs at a level you expected when you chose your POD? It's a tough call.

    With human nature, sometimes the most obvious decision is the hardest, such as jumping off a POD if you make a mistake in pick that player.

    It's far easier (for others) to jump on a performing POD, however I can tell you it's very hard to jump off an underperforming POD. The rationale is that you have chosen that POD in your initial SuperCoach team as you (from a subjective view) strongly believed that SuperCoach player will do well. You have backed your own judgment against the majority in this decision to select the POD. You are the minority in this decision as if you weren't the minority in making this decision then the player would not be a POD.

    However, difference between a Premium POD and a Rookie/Mid-Priced POD is also important too.

    For me, it's easier to jump off a Rookie or Mid-Priced POD as you presumably intended to trade them out eventually, but much harder to trade out Premiums. Hence, Wingard and Hrovat (example only) would be easier to select as PODs and trade out (if they underperform).

    However, it's much harder to jump off a Premium PODs. For example, if Brent Stanton and/or Nick Dal Santo were the PODs. It's much harder to trade out the POD as you would hope these Premium PODs would recover. The other reason is why some people are reluctant to trade out Premium PODs is if you do decide to trade out Premium PODs during the 'Trading Period', you are actually 'side trading' and are not improving your team, whereas the others are improving their teams. Thus there is a tendency to trade out underforming Premium PODs as there is no improvement in your team.

    Now, I'm not advising you to not select PODS nor Premiums PODs, but rather just to give a reminder that if you are looking for a POD, make sure you are confident that it will be a positive POD.

    The main objective of finding a Point of Difference is to find a positive POD not a negative POD.

    I reiterate that if you choose a Premium POD, make sure you are willing to swallow your pride and in some cases (if appropriate) trade them out if they are not performing. Naturally, you need to decide earlier rather than around the Trading Period as you will be disadvantaged as while you side trade your premiums, others will improve their team by upgrading.

    Remember, how easy it was to jump on the aerobatic Stanton POD Express? Remember how hard it was to jump off the Stanton trainwreck?

    I know Rowsus is thinking of Scott Selwood as a potential Premium POD with my potential premium POD is Nick Dal Santo.
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  2. #2
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    1 Not allowed!

    I would so love it if Stanton was this year's POD/value pick of the year. Has the potential to go big, will get less attention with Goddard now and plays for a team on the improve (hopefully).

    From that list, Jack, Selwood and Shuey fit the mould but i like NDS..even now, still from day 1 lol
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  3. #3
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    0 Not allowed!

    Brilliant stuff!

    Mundy, Priddis and Boyd are very underrated and proven to be right up there with the best Premiums.
    Players such as Jack, Boak, Shuey and S. Selwood come into consideration after 1 or 2 more seasons of excellent out-put (so to say, when they become elite).

  4. #4
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    0 Not allowed!

    Loved game theory and even more fun after a few beers!

    Great article. I agree with you Jay. If you are going for a POD premium you are best to try get one with some real upside and be prepared to cut your losses early if it does not pan out. You should also not be too quick to jump on the "stanton" of the month during the season.

    Boak has underperformed the last couple of years and he has lots of upside. Still young, new captain, and a real talent who I feel can only get better. There were signs of his potential at the end of 2010 but he regressed a little. If I was going unique in the middle I would take him.

    I am surprised there is so little love for Scooter and Shuey etc. You would think those in WA would back them in. I brought in Priddis last year after his injury price drop he was very good value at that price but perhaps not so much this year.
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  5. #5
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    0 Not allowed!

    I don't have any but Priddis and Boyd are great very safe picks. Otherwise Shuey/Scooter and Jack should have stellar seasons
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  6. #6
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    2 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by 30BucketsofRo View Post
    Brilliant stuff!

    Mundy, Priddis and Boyd are very underrated and proven to be right up there with the best Premiums.
    Players such as Jack, Boak, Shuey and S. Selwood come into consideration after 1 or 2 more seasons of excellent out-put (so to say, when they become elite).
    Of course, if these, or any other players display one or two seasons of excellent output before you place them into consideration, they will no longer really be POD's.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  7. #7
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Of course, if these, or any other players display one or two seasons of excellent output before you place them into consideration, they will no longer really be POD's.
    Fair point.
    I'll add now that there are always going to be effective Premium POD's. You can't fit all of them into a team so one or two - such as Priddis and Boyd and maybe Selwood and Boak later on - always slip through the net.

  8. #8
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    0 Not allowed!

    I have a spot for 1 midfield midpricer and at the moment I have Fyfe, but I really want to pick Duncan as a POD. IMO he ticks a lot of boxes when it comes to a potential break-out season, but I feel like it might be a year too early.
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  9. #9
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    5 Not allowed!

    Great article again Jay.
    I like that you touched on peoples unwillingness to change their minds, or jump ship, from their original decision.
    It's a human nature thing that has been exploited by magicians, and games shows, for years.
    I read some psychological research on this about 10 years ago. It pretty much boiled down to most people would stay with their original choice in over 90% of cases, even if the logical thing to do to was change their mind. It seems there is greater disappointment attached to changing your mind, and later being proven your first pick was right, than in keeping your first pick and seeing it fail.
    Many many years ago, there was a game show that culminated with the nights winner being presented 3 curtains. Their prize for the night was hidden behind the curtain they chose. There was one great prize (car or holiday etc) and 2 pretty average prizes (cooking set or worse) hidden behind each curtain. After the winner chose their curtain, they were then shown one of the "bad" prizes behind one of the two curtains they didn't choose. After seeing that "bad" prize they were offered the opportunity to keep their original curtain, or swap to the other unopened curtain.
    History will show that nearly ever contestant kept their original curtain.
    Maths will show, if they swapped, they drastically improved their chances of winning the better prize.
    Why wouldn't they swap! Human nature is an amazing thing. Sometimes, even if you just have to force yourself to fight it, you are much much better off!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  10. #10
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    1 Not allowed!

    Lids is my huge POD. Is one of the best players in the game and with him losing his DEF link people are not going near him. His going to have a huge year and will be in the top 10 MIDS.
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  11. #11
    supergirl
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    5 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by johno686 View Post
    Lids is my huge POD. Is one of the best players in the game and with him losing his DEF link people are not going near him. His going to have a huge year and will be in the top 10 MIDS.
    Delids! I also have A.Swallow. I reckon he can go one step further this season, looks so fit and in form.

    *Edit PS. Great article once again Jay
    Last edited by supergirl; 14-03-2013 at 8:47am.
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  12. #12
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    2 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Many many years ago, there was a game show that culminated with the nights winner being presented 3 curtains. Their prize for the night was hidden behind the curtain they chose. There was one great prize (car or holiday etc) and 2 pretty average prizes (cooking set or worse) hidden behind each curtain. After the winner chose their curtain, they were then shown one of the "bad" prizes behind one of the two curtains they didn't choose. After seeing that "bad" prize they were offered the opportunity to keep their original curtain, or swap to the other unopened curtain.
    History will show that nearly ever contestant kept their original curtain.
    Maths will show, if they swapped, they drastically improved their chances of winning the better prize.
    Why wouldn't they swap! Human nature is an amazing thing. Sometimes, even if you just have to force yourself to fight it, you are much much better off!
    I may be missing something here but how would maths show that swapping cutains would improve their chances of winning the better prize?

    Wouldn't the chances of getting the better prize now be 50% for either sticking with the original curtain or 50% in swapping to the other curtain?
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  13. #13
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    0 Not allowed!

    Going Deledio over Cotchin as my POD and Duffield in the backs who doesn't seem particularly popular.
    Last edited by AngryAnt; 14-03-2013 at 10:01am.
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  14. #14
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Philzsay View Post
    I may be missing something here but how would maths show that swapping cutains would improve their chances of winning the better prize?

    Wouldn't the chances of getting the better prize now be 50% for either sticking with the original curtain or 50% in swapping to the other curtain?
    I would think revealing the first curtain of a bad prize changes nothing as it means there would always been then left just the good prize and one remaining bad prize. Simple 50-50 chance at that point and can't see any other way of reading into it. Something is missing here I suspect to what Rowsus meant. Will read later I find out
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  15. #15
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    2 Not allowed!

    Variable change.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rl_p3JlSd0

    When he chose Door 1 the probability was 33.33 but there was condition applied after he chose door 1.

    The probability of door 2 and door 3 together was 66.66 and the professor showed that door 3 did not have a car. This makes the entire 66.66 probability fall on door 2.

    So switching doors doubles his probability.
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  16. #16
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    1 Not allowed!

    I have O'Keefe and Lids at the moment, was wondering if Jack would be a better option, not sure how captaincy will impact him though. It would be good if the Swans took the NAB Cup Seriously.
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  17. #17
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Philzsay View Post
    I may be missing something here but how would maths show that swapping cutains would improve their chances of winning the better prize?

    Wouldn't the chances of getting the better prize now be 50% for either sticking with the original curtain or 50% in swapping to the other curtain?

    (1) You pick the holiday, host shows a cooking set, you switch to a cooking set and lose
    (2) You pick cooking set #1, host shows you cooking set #2, you switch to the holiday and win
    (3) You pick cooking set #2, host shows you cooking set #1, you switch to the holiday and win

    that means you have a 2/3 or 66.6666.. % chance of winning the Holiday...

    I'm doing a double major in financial management and accounting and we literally got asked this in our first lecture... haha

  18. #18
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Many many years ago, there was a game show that culminated with the nights winner being presented 3 curtains. Their prize for the night was hidden behind the curtain they chose. There was one great prize (car or holiday etc) and 2 pretty average prizes (cooking set or worse) hidden behind each curtain. After the winner chose their curtain, they were then shown one of the "bad" prizes behind one of the two curtains they didn't choose. After seeing that "bad" prize they were offered the opportunity to keep their original curtain, or swap to the other unopened curtain.
    History will show that nearly ever contestant kept their original curtain.
    Maths will show, if they swapped, they drastically improved their chances of winning the better prize.
    Why wouldn't they swap! Human nature is an amazing thing. Sometimes, even if you just have to force yourself to fight it, you are much much better off!
    Quote Originally Posted by Philzsay View Post
    I may be missing something here but how would maths show that swapping cutains would improve their chances of winning the better prize?

    Wouldn't the chances of getting the better prize now be 50% for either sticking with the original curtain or 50% in swapping to the other curtain?
    Quote Originally Posted by OzRulesFootball View Post
    I would think revealing the first curtain of a bad prize changes nothing as it means there would always been then left just the good prize and one remaining bad prize. Simple 50-50 chance at that point and can't see any other way of reading into it. Something is missing here I suspect to what Rowsus meant. Will read later I find out
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr_Arrogance View Post
    Variable change.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rl_p3JlSd0

    When he chose Door 1 the probability was 33.33 but there was condition applied after he chose door 1.

    The probability of door 2 and door 3 together was 66.66 and the professor showed that door 3 did not have a car. This makes the entire 66.66 probability fall on door 2.

    So switching doors doubles his probability.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brisbane Lions View Post
    (1) You pick the holiday, host shows a cooking set, you switch to a cooking set and lose
    (2) You pick cooking set #1, host shows you cooking set #2, you switch to the holiday and win
    (3) You pick cooking set #2, host shows you cooking set #1, you switch to the holiday and win

    that means you have a 2/3 or 66.6666.. % chance of winning the Holiday...

    I'm doing a double major in financial management and accounting and we literally got asked this in our first lecture... haha
    Collectively, this is Gold!

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  19. #19
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    0 Not allowed!

    Mid - Jack - has been in my team all year as POD to Murphy at similar price. Both new captains and Murphy more proven but Jack is a flat track bully so he is in from the start to hopefully take advantage of the early draw. Wish I had the guts to go ROK as I think he will kill it early.
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  20. #20
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    0 Not allowed!

    Wow, there is a massive wiki page explanation of the problem and it has been a raging debate amongst many mathematicians etc.....

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

    Essentially the odds only change from 50/50 due to the host's/producer's knowledge and always revealing one of the wrong doors on purpose.
    If the door the host revealed was random (so thus 33.3% of the time it revealed the car etc) then it would be different again, it is the deliberate revealing of a wrong door that underpins the maths and change in probablities.

    (PS sorry I have edited this post a couple of times!)
    Last edited by Philzsay; 14-03-2013 at 11:40am.
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