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  1. #21
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    Thanks to the HS guys for creating this. If anyone has time to hop on twitter maybe ask for them to follow up with another challenge, the CHEAPEST starting team that could have taken out the $50k in 2017.

    When this exercise was done on another site a few years ago the solution was found to be around $6 million however the trading strategy ends up being a lot more Guns and Rookies like, and the "cheap" team also stormed home strong from memory around 1000 points off the lead early days as they lose points but build $$$.
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  2. #22
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    That team had a few rucks rotating through: McEvoy, Kruezer, Witts, Nankervis, Ryder, Smith. At least one of these was on the bench every week!
    SuperCoach:  14270 (2017)  8377 (2016)  163 (2015)  AFL Dream Team:  4854 (2017)  6693 (2016)  5 (2015) 


  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaca View Post
    One thing is interesting is the "starting rookie players that will eventually come into the side". Will give it some thought for my future donuts.
    Still remember starting Tom Couch who took forever to get a game, and in another season, I think, starting of all people Sam Docherty for Brisbane and the best he could manage all season was emergency. Ironic given Docherty is now virtually everyone's first pick for Supercoach. Picked the right rookie but in the wrong season. Like to have the squad of 30 all playing first game if possible.
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  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    My current premiums are largely fallen, including Gawn and NicNat (almost everyone seems on board with this) plus Fyfe, Pendles, Selwood, Rocky, Hanners, Gray and Dahl (less popular, except maybe Fyfe, for understandable reasons). I'm picking the latter group not so much because I see them as safe but because I see them as having an attractive expected return (they are discounted, and I am confident they will outscore their price, especially in aggregate, with a strong chance of most of them being good keepers). Personally I would see picking players like Laird and Heeney (for 2018, and ignoring any issues regarding his knee) as being low risk and low expected return. They're a good chance to be premium keepers, with low likelihood of being disasters, but they definitely will not be what the ultimate winner points to as determining his/her success! I currently have both, largely because I think they have a role to play in an SC side (a portfolio?) and because I can't find superior options.
    I’ve posted here because I don’t want to derail the midfield thread.

    I always enjoy reading your posts Darkie but I think we’re on different pages with this one.

    I still can’t see how the names you’ve mentioned and your basic principle of picking reliable investments is going to win you the $50k. I’m specifically talking about the $50k and even though it’s very unlikely I will ever win it that’s my dream each year when I put all my disappointments behind me and hop into the freowho coaches box again.
    If the aim is to win some cash off mates or have a consistently high rank then your principles are very good. But if the aim is for No.1 then you need to find a way to separate yourself from the other 200,000 coaches. The scary part of this separation is that you can also go back through the crowd pretty quickly.
    If we look at this year the players that separated themselves from the pack on their line were Docherty, Dangerfield and Kreuzer. Other players that would have been hard to cover are Adams, Dusty, Titchell and MaCrae. The winner had all of them but the player that really allowed some in the top 10 to separate themselves from the masses was Kreuzer because he was the most unkown quantity.
    When I think of players that have created the most separation amongst the thousands of coaches playing each year they are break out or unexpected players like Robbie Gray, Luke Parker, Sam Jacobs, Travis Cloke, Clayton Oliver, Sam Docherty, Max Gawn, Matthew Kreuzer and Heath Shaw who was a notorious 29 year old burn man that couldn’t play a full year!
    Your expected return and confidence is gained by picking known quantities which means that thousands of others will also share your expected return and confidence. This is not allowing you to separate yourself from the masses.
    The flipside is that a player could go out of their way to be the safest supercoach player in the competition and hope the other 200,000 have taken some unknown quantities and had no luck. Then they win the $50k! It would appear to be easier to find a couple of hidden gems rather than hoping none of the other 200,000 find any.
    SuperCoach:  8293 (2017)  10922 (2016)  9214 (2015)  653 (2014) 

    I miss the old colours.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    I’ve posted here because I don’t want to derail the midfield thread.

    I always enjoy reading your posts Darkie but I think we’re on different pages with this one.

    I still can’t see how the names you’ve mentioned and your basic principle of picking reliable investments is going to win you the $50k. I’m specifically talking about the $50k and even though it’s very unlikely I will ever win it that’s my dream each year when I put all my disappointments behind me and hop into the freowho coaches box again.
    If the aim is to win some cash off mates or have a consistently high rank then your principles are very good. But if the aim is for No.1 then you need to find a way to separate yourself from the other 200,000 coaches. The scary part of this separation is that you can also go back through the crowd pretty quickly.
    If we look at this year the players that separated themselves from the pack on their line were Docherty, Dangerfield and Kreuzer. Other players that would have been hard to cover are Adams, Dusty, Titchell and MaCrae. The winner had all of them but the player that really allowed some in the top 10 to separate themselves from the masses was Kreuzer because he was the most unkown quantity.
    When I think of players that have created the most separation amongst the thousands of coaches playing each year they are break out or unexpected players like Robbie Gray, Luke Parker, Sam Jacobs, Travis Cloke, Clayton Oliver, Sam Docherty, Max Gawn, Matthew Kreuzer and Heath Shaw who was a notorious 29 year old burn man that couldn’t play a full year!
    Your expected return and confidence is gained by picking known quantities which means that thousands of others will also share your expected return and confidence. This is not allowing you to separate yourself from the masses.
    The flipside is that a player could go out of their way to be the safest supercoach player in the competition and hope the other 200,000 have taken some unknown quantities and had no luck. Then they win the $50k! It would appear to be easier to find a couple of hidden gems rather than hoping none of the other 200,000 find any.
    Happy New Year freo - I have largely been offline in recent weeks, so I'm just coming to this.

    I think in general I agree with a lot of what you have written above, although where I think we differ is that (from my perspective) you seem to be drawing a strong link between my expected return and confidence and a player's popularity. I expect that some of the players I select will be popular, but that others will not be - some people will disagree with my assessment, and others will simply see more appeal elsewhere.

    There are always names that I consider to be no brainers that the majority still don't pick (Pendles would have been in this position more than once). I'm also quite open to picking a proven player as a POD over someone who I consider to be a risky popular selection.

    A good example from last year would be Ryder vs Nank. I just couldn't get my head around why Nank was so popular, and I thought that most people were significantly underestimating the risk that he would be a poor pick. For me Ryder was a choice that was much more appealing, in part because he was much more proven ... but Nank was much more popular nonetheless. Over the early part of the season this looked like a very costly call, with the majority winning out. Through good luck or good decision making, Ryder ended up being the superior choice by a decent margin if you kept them both (trading Nank out, or maybe starting them both, potentially being viable options), albeit that both were probably good picks in absolute terms. The key point for me is that Ryder was much more my style, and clearly more proven, but he wasn't more popular as a result. That's the best example I can think of from last year - not all will work out, obviously, but I am constantly surprised at how unpopular some of my picks are. I remember starting Boomer a couple of years ago and he too came good late, but was a massive POD (just not a particularly positive or negative one!).

    In terms of whether I count myself out of the $50,000 - I would like to think not, especially as I barely look at league results early on, and largely just try to maximise my SC points early in the season, thinking about PODs and the like if I find myself right at the pointy end later in the year (which has only happened once, in DT last year - although this will be inherently rare except for a genuine standout coach). In reality I think I will probably never get close enough for us to know definitively, simply because of how many teams and good coaches there are, although I hope I am proven wrong on that

    Out of interest, who are the players that you would be looking at to separate yourself from the masses at this stage?
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  6. #26
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    Hi Darkie

    At the moment on my shortlist is Hogan, Curnow, Mathieson, Hopper and someone else I can't quite remember at the moment.
    Last edited by freowho; 17-01-2018 at 3:36pm. Reason: Had a delayed memory lapse.
    SuperCoach:  8293 (2017)  10922 (2016)  9214 (2015)  653 (2014) 

    I miss the old colours.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    Hi Darkie

    At the moment on my shortlist is Hogan, Curnow, Mathieson, Hopper and I'm surprised Christensen isn't in more teams at his price.
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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    Hi Darkie

    At the moment on my shortlist is Hogan, Curnow, Mathieson, Hopper and someone else I can't quite remember at the moment.
    Thanks freo, that's an interesting list. I'll keep an eye on each of them, with Curnow and your mystery man looking most appealing on my review just now. I'd be more confident picking Curnow if I knew what happened from round 14 last year (?!) and the mystery man looks better with some injury scores taken out in 2016 and knowing that he's in the leadership group. I had thought he was a bit flaky, but that may be unfair.
    SuperCoach:  20937 (2017)  589 (2016)  3225 (2015)  8243 (2014)  AFL Dream Team:  226 (2017)  397 (2016) 


  9. #29
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    From the boffin who worked out the optimal team, thanks for the interest :-). Only just came across this thread.

    I think there is something extremely satisfying about seeing "the answers" at the end of the season, even if the answers are truly ridiculous. Will probably do it again at the end of the season if there's any interest so let me know if there is anything you would like me to add.

    Cheers,
    Steven Edwards
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  10. #30
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    Thanks to the HS guys for creating this. If anyone has time to hop on twitter maybe ask for them to follow up with another challenge, the CHEAPEST starting team that could have taken out the $50k in 2017.
    :-) I really like that idea!!! This is totally something that could be done. The other thing I want to try and is to determine the best "ghost team", i.e. a starting team that you set up and then leave for the entire season. Get's a little tricky with the subs but think it'll solve. If the HS knows there is enough interest for this stuff, I think they'd be keen to print it so please tweet asking for it.

    Cheers,
    Steven
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  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevedwards View Post
    From the boffin who worked out the optimal team, thanks for the interest :-). Only just came across this thread.

    I think there is something extremely satisfying about seeing "the answers" at the end of the season, even if the answers are truly ridiculous. Will probably do it again at the end of the season if there's any interest so let me know if there is anything you would like me to add.

    Cheers,
    Steven Edwards
    Thanks for the work Steve, I really enjoyed it. Was there anything in particular that surprised you?
    I could never have guessed the value of using a trade on one high captain's score and the fact that Rory Laird was never required.
    Cheers
    SuperCoach:  8293 (2017)  10922 (2016)  9214 (2015)  653 (2014) 


  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    Thanks for the work Steve, I really enjoyed it. Was there anything in particular that surprised you?
    I could never have guessed the value of using a trade on one high captain's score and the fact that Rory Laird was never required.
    Cheers
    A lot of things surprised me at first glance but then made sense when I thought about it a bit. The optimal team seemed to increase it's budget purely as a coincidence of all 30 players performing really well every week (oh what a dream that'd be) as opposed to explicitly trying to mature cash cows. This seemed to allow it to "waste" a stack of trades on ridiculous things that I discussed in the article and that people have mentioned in this thread, e.g. bringing players in for a round as captain and then trading them immediately back off (Ablett and JJK). This is also highlighted by the ~$700,000 that is unused in the budget at the end of the season. I didn't expect this because half the fun in SC for me is getting $$$ so you can bring in the best players but I guess when everyone in the team is playing well you'll inevitably make bank. I think couchPOTATO's idea of finding the cheapest starting team that would still obtain a better score than mere mortals would rectify this as it would force a better balance between obtaining high scores while also trying to increase budget. So we might see some much more realistic trading there.

    The main thing the approach validated for me was the idea of trading hard early in the season and then crossing your fingers and coasting for the last 5-6 rounds with only a trade or two up the sleeve. I saw a number of the previous winner's use this tactic so was interested if the optimal team would do the same, which it did. It's not particularly fair though because the optimal team's final 30 was absolutely ridiculously good so it could just pick the best 22 out them for the remaining weeks and easily had enough depth to absorb any injuries (if there were any, can't remember).

    I'd be keen to do a few different articles at the end of this season so if people are interested (please) let Al Paton know on twitter, he makes the call on these things. I don't work for the HS just a mere maths PhD student trying to use my skills for the most important things ;-).
    Last edited by stevedwards; 22-04-2018 at 9:00am.
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  13. #33
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    Welcome Steve! Great to have you hear to share your insights.

    Now, I must ask, do you play SC and how is your team going, and more importantly did you incorporate any of the optimal team methodology into it?
    SuperCoach:  43,027 (2018)  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

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  14. #34
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    Hi IDIG,

    Thanks for the welcome. I played SC religiously back in around 2013/14 winning leagues with friends but don't think finishing anywhere super high, maybe top 5-10 thousand. Then took a few years off and made a horrifically bad return last year, so bad that half way through the season I started wondering if it was even theoretically possible for me to win from that position, which lead to the whole optimal team thing haha. I actually took this season off so I can concentrate on finishing my PhD (but still somehow find myself on these forums).

    In saying that though my brothers team was coming 227th after round 3 and so we are looking at elaborate ways to get him over the line :-).
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