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View Poll Results: Who will be your starting rucks?

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  • Gawn $504k

    84 94.38%
  • Lycett $277k

    13 14.61%
  • Goldstein $521k

    16 17.98%
  • Ryder $567k

    12 13.48%
  • Jacobs $523k

    10 11.24%
  • Kreuzer $604k

    6 6.74%
  • SMartin $540k

    10 11.24%
  • Grundy $535k

    8 8.99%
  • Witts $518k

    1 1.12%
  • TBC $505k

    0 0%
  • Smith $502k

    0 0%
  • Nankervis $488k

    6 6.74%
  • Sandi $480k

    0 0%
  • NicNat $466k

    6 6.74%
  • Simpson $290k

    4 4.49%
  • Other

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
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    4 Not allowed!

    This might be a bit of a boring thread lol

    Cheers to Erich for the price estimates, etc!

    Player Team Bye 2017 Games 2017 Ave Price
    M. Kreuzer CAR 12 21 109.8 $597,400
    P. Ryder PTA 10 21 103.1 $560,600
    S. Martin BRL 13 22 98.2 $534,400
    B. Grundy COL 13 20 97.3 $529,000
    S. Jacobs ADE 14 22 95.7 $520,800
    B. McEvoy HAW 12 22 95.2 $517,800
    T. Goldstein NTH 13 19 94.8 $515,900
    J. Witts GCS 10 18 94.3 $512,900
    T. Bellchambers ESS 13 13 91.8 $499,200
    M. Gawn MEL 13 13 91.6 $498,400
    Z. Smith GEE 14 18 91.3 $496,600
    T. Nankervis RIC 14 21 88.8 $483,100
    A. Sandilands FRE 14 10 87.3 $474,900
    C. Pedersen [FWD] MEL 13 15 85.8 $466,800
    C. Sinclair [FWD] SYD 14 17 79.5 $432,300
    S. Darcy FRE 14 8 78.8 $428,400
    B. Longer STK 14 17 78.1 $425,000
    R. Stanley [FWD] GEE 14 11 75.1 $408,500
    N. Naitanui WCE 12 0 0 $403,500
    J. Roughead WBD 12 13 71.5 $388,800
    M. Leuenberger ESS 13 7 76.1 $372,800
    N. Vardy WCE 12 20 67.9 $369,400
    S. Naismith SYD 14 13 66.2 $359,900
    B. Preuss [FWD] NTH 13 8 63.1 $343,400
    T. Campbell WBD 12 7 69.6 $340,600
    T. Boyd [FWD] WBD 12 11 61.7 $335,800
    D. Simpson GWS 13 2 88 $335,100
    T. Hickey STK 14 5 74.4 $323,800
    T. Nicholls GCS 10 0 0 $314,300
    S. McKernan [FWD] ESS 13 3 79.3 $302,100
    M. Cox [FWD] COL 13 9 55.4 $301,600
    S. Hampson RIC 14 0 0 $273,100
    J. Ceglar HAW 12 0 0 $263,800
    I. Soldo RIC 14 7 46.1 $251,000
    M. Lobbe CAR 12 0 0 $250,400
    R. Marshall [FWD] STK 14 1 57 $248,100
    S. Lycett [FWD] WCE 12 1 63 $239,900
    A. Phillips CAR 12 1 51 $222,000
    SuperCoach:  43,027 (2018)  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

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  2. #2
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    3 Not allowed!

    If Gawn and NN are both fit in round one and play 2 JLT games, couldn't honestly have a more no brainer decision in the rucks. It's never that easy though so they'll probably have hammy niggles or whatnot all through the JLT to get us all nervous.
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  3. #3
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    3 Not allowed!

    They will be there all pre season until a later pre season niggle causes us all to panic and entirely restructure our well reasearched sides!

    #youknowitwillhappen
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  4. #4
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    1 Not allowed!

    The number 1 and number 3 ruckmen from 2016 for 900k, yes please

    No chance of injuries either

  5. #5
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    0 Not allowed!

    Possibly goldy, but I think the obvious choice is as stated.
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  6. #6
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    1 Not allowed!

    I would put the opposite view to the obvious. Nit Nac has not played for 18 months. That is a long time out of the game. He has had a clean up of the knee in the past few months according to some in the press. He could smash it when he comes back or he could do a Fyfe a la 2017 and be up and down for a season. He has only ave better than 105 once in 8 seasons. So what are people expecting him to ave in 2018? And as a west coast supporter I would love him to have a ball tearer but mmmm.....
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  7. #7
    GoGeta
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Manikato1 View Post
    I would put the opposite view to the obvious. Nit Nac has not played for 18 months. That is a long time out of the game. He has had a clean up of the knee in the past few months according to some in the press. He could smash it when he comes back or he could do a Fyfe a la 2017 and be up and down for a season. He has only ave better than 105 once in 8 seasons. So what are people expecting him to ave in 2018? And as a west coast supporter I would love him to have a ball tearer but mmmm.....
    All valid points.

    But considering price to point ratio, would a Gawn/Grundy combo deliver over a slow starting NicNat/Gawn combo do you think?
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  8. #8
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing_Sting View Post
    Possibly goldy, but I think the obvious choice is as stated.
    Preuss complicates the Goldy pick.
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  9. #9
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Manikato1 View Post
    I would put the opposite view to the obvious. Nit Nac has not played for 18 months. That is a long time out of the game. He has had a clean up of the knee in the past few months according to some in the press. He could smash it when he comes back or he could do a Fyfe a la 2017 and be up and down for a season. He has only ave better than 105 once in 8 seasons. So what are people expecting him to ave in 2018? And as a west coast supporter I would love him to have a ball tearer but mmmm.....
    It's a bit misleading to say he only averaged better than 105 once:

    - In 2015, he averaged 104 (close enough), but was greatly improving as the season progressed:
    - Avg 84 in 1st 7 games
    - Avg 114 from R8 onward

    - In 2016, he averaged 106:
    - Avg 114 in 1st 10 games
    - A couple of down games in R11 & R12, but still averaging 109 up until this point
    - Came back from long injury for last few rounds which brought total down to 106

    That's a good string of effectively 12 months worth of 110-115 scoring (mid 2015 to mid 2016).

    I agree that I don't think anyone should be going into 2018 thinking he will score like this, but I definitely don't think it's a long shot to suggest a 105 average is possible (or even likely). And to be honest, even if he averages only 100, for the price he's likely to be at, you'd have to go for it.

    Plus, every man and his dog will be picking him as well, so if you don't pick him, and he goes BANG, then you're stuffed. And also, since everyone will be picking him, if he goes down with injury, everyone will be in the same boat anyway.
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  10. #10
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    0 Not allowed!

    Grundy has never ave 100 but no doubt will go big soon. The problem is the more I look at it the harder it is to compare ruck scores of the past. In the past 2 seasons only 2 rucks got over 100 in 2017 and 3 in 2016. Yet the two seasons before that 8 and 7 rucks achieved it. I think Grundy not getting the 100 yet may be a result of whatever change has occurred in ruck scoring recently. Anyway ATM I think Grundy costs too much. Gawn is number one but the second spot is still up for grabs for me. If you used the $$ difference between Grundy and NicNat wisely and it was generating good points then I suppose the Gawn/Nicnat combo works in the overall scheme of things. But I suspect people could have expectations of NicNat that he cannot deliver on. If Sandi was to get injured I would be seriously looking at Darcy.

    Edit:

    Plus, every man and his dog will be picking him as well, so if you don't pick him, and he goes BANG, then you're stuffed. And also, since everyone will be picking him, if he goes down with injury, everyone will be in the same boat anyway.
    That is a fair assessment.
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  11. #11
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    3 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by TeeButOne View Post
    It's a bit misleading to say he only averaged better than 105 once:

    - In 2015, he averaged 104 (close enough), but was greatly improving as the season progressed:
    - Avg 84 in 1st 7 games
    - Avg 114 from R8 onward

    - In 2016, he averaged 106:
    - Avg 114 in 1st 10 games
    - A couple of down games in R11 & R12, but still averaging 109 up until this point
    - Came back from long injury for last few rounds which brought total down to 106

    That's a good string of effectively 12 months worth of 110-115 scoring (mid 2015 to mid 2016).

    I agree that I don't think anyone should be going into 2018 thinking he will score like this, but I definitely don't think it's a long shot to suggest a 105 average is possible (or even likely). And to be honest, even if he averages only 100, for the price he's likely to be at, you'd have to go for it.

    Plus, every man and his dog will be picking him as well, so if you don't pick him, and he goes BANG, then you're stuffed. And also, since everyone will be picking him, if he goes down with injury, everyone will be in the same boat anyway.
    I've always thought "we're all in the same boat anyway" is very specious thinking.
    For a start, I'd be amazed if his ownership went higher than 60%, if it even went that high.
    So it's never a case of everybody being in the same boat.
    Secondly, that's really high on the herd or pack thinking scale. I use a simple comparison when looking at popular players. Is their probability of success higher than their ownership percentage?
    Dangerfield will likely be in 50-60% of teams, and I would consider him a 80-85% chance of being a good, successful pick = near lock.
    NicNat will likely be in 50(+)% of teams, but depending on how he looks in the pre-season, I'd only rate him a 40% chance of being a good successful pick.
    That = a ? to me!
    Last edited by Rowsus; 26-11-2017 at 6:53pm.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  12. #12
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    I've always thought "we're all in the same boat anyway" is very specious thinking.
    For a start, I'd be amazed if his ownership went higher than 60%, if it even went that high.
    So it's never a case of everybody being in the same boat.
    Secondly, that's really high on the herd or pack thinking scale. I use a simple comparison when looking at popular players. Is their probability of success higher than their ownership percentage?
    Dangerfield will likely be in 50-60% of teams, and I would consider him a 80-85% chance of being a good, successful pick = near lock.
    NicNat will likely be in 50(+)% of teams, but depending on how he looks in the pre-season, I'd only rate him a 40% chance of being a good successful pick.
    That = a ? to me!
    I guess it depends what people classify as a "good successful pick"? Everyone has there own subjective views of what a good, successful pick is. For example, most Rockliff owners from 2017 would have classified him as a terrible pick, but if you managed to jump off him as soon as he got injured, you got 2 months of scores from the best player in the supercoach competition and he would have been a very successful initial pick. My views on Naitanui is that he is a SuperCoach specialist, who at his very best, rivals the best ruckmen in the competition for scoring. We have to assume that coming back from injury, there will likely be a slight decrease on his maximum potential output (which to date is around ~115 ppg), having said this, I still would have thought anything over 100+ would be classified as a success. A lot of water to go under the bridge between now and round 1 though!
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  13. #13
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    0 Not allowed!

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  14. #14
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by NakinakiFC View Post
    I guess it depends what people classify as a "good successful pick"? Everyone has there own subjective views of what a good, successful pick is. For example, most Rockliff owners from 2017 would have classified him as a terrible pick, but if you managed to jump off him as soon as he got injured, you got 2 months of scores from the best player in the supercoach competition and he would have been a very successful initial pick. My views on Naitanui is that he is a SuperCoach specialist, who at his very best, rivals the best ruckmen in the competition for scoring. We have to assume that coming back from injury, there will likely be a slight decrease on his maximum potential output (which to date is around ~115 ppg), having said this, I still would have thought anything over 100+ would be classified as a success. A lot of water to go under the bridge between now and round 1 though!
    I'd think just about any Ruck that scores @ 100+ would be considered a successful pick, given the most recent season, especially one that will be priced in NicNat's expected price range.
    The only rider I would put on it is, he might still be shakey, if for example, he plays 7, misses 1, plays 2, misses 1, plays 1, misses 1 etc, and only ends up with 14 or 16 games. It's all well and good to say start him, and trade him at the first sign of trouble, but if he is only expected to miss one game, most will hold him!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  15. #15
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    Preuss complicates the Goldy pick.
    That's why I said 'possibly'

    We all know both Nank and the Beard will be injured in the JTL cup anywayz, right?
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  16. #16
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by TeeButOne View Post
    It's a bit misleading to say he only averaged better than 105 once:

    - In 2015, he averaged 104 (close enough), but was greatly improving as the season progressed:
    - Avg 84 in 1st 7 games
    - Avg 114 from R8 onward

    - In 2016, he averaged 106:
    - Avg 114 in 1st 10 games
    - A couple of down games in R11 & R12, but still averaging 109 up until this point
    - Came back from long injury for last few rounds which brought total down to 106

    That's a good string of effectively 12 months worth of 110-115 scoring (mid 2015 to mid 2016).

    I agree that I don't think anyone should be going into 2018 thinking he will score like this, but I definitely don't think it's a long shot to suggest a 105 average is possible (or even likely). And to be honest, even if he averages only 100, for the price he's likely to be at, you'd have to go for it.

    Plus, every man and his dog will be picking him as well, so if you don't pick him, and he goes BANG, then you're stuffed. And also, since everyone will be picking him, if he goes down with injury, everyone will be in the same boat anyway.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    I've always thought "we're all in the same boat anyway" is very specious thinking.
    For a start, I'd be amazed if his ownership went higher than 60%, if it even went that high.
    So it's never a case of everybody being in the same boat.
    Secondly, that's really high on the herd or pack thinking scale. I use a simple comparison when looking at popular players. Is their probability of success higher than their ownership percentage?
    Dangerfield will likely be in 50-60% of teams, and I would consider him a 80-85% chance of being a good, successful pick = near lock.
    NicNat will likely be in 50(+)% of teams, but depending on how he looks in the pre-season, I'd only rate him a 40% chance of being a good successful pick.
    That = a ? to me!
    Quote Originally Posted by NakinakiFC View Post
    I guess it depends what people classify as a "good successful pick"? Everyone has there own subjective views of what a good, successful pick is. For example, most Rockliff owners from 2017 would have classified him as a terrible pick, but if you managed to jump off him as soon as he got injured, you got 2 months of scores from the best player in the supercoach competition and he would have been a very successful initial pick. My views on Naitanui is that he is a SuperCoach specialist, who at his very best, rivals the best ruckmen in the competition for scoring. We have to assume that coming back from injury, there will likely be a slight decrease on his maximum potential output (which to date is around ~115 ppg), having said this, I still would have thought anything over 100+ would be classified as a success. A lot of water to go under the bridge between now and round 1 though!
    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    I'd think just about any Ruck that scores @ 100+ would be considered a successful pick, given the most recent season, especially one that will be priced in NicNat's expected price range.
    The only rider I would put on it is, he might still be shakey, if for example, he plays 7, misses 1, plays 2, misses 1, plays 1, misses 1 etc, and only ends up with 14 or 16 games. It's all well and good to say start him, and trade him at the first sign of trouble, but if he is only expected to miss one game, most will hold him!
    Appreciate the feedback Rowsus (and others). Agreed, the injury risk with Nic Nat needs to be taken into account, which may require stronger consideration of a reliable R/F option in the FWD line (if such an option is provided).

    Do we have any thoughts about what he will be priced at? Usually there's a heavy discount for missing an entire season, but sometimes (from memory), the powers-that-be aren't as generous as they technically should be (especially with such a prominent selection option).
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  17. #17
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by TeeButOne View Post
    Appreciate the feedback Rowsus (and others). Agreed, the injury risk with Nic Nat needs to be taken into account, which may require stronger consideration of a reliable R/F option in the FWD line (if such an option is provided).

    Do we have any thoughts about what he will be priced at? Usually there's a heavy discount for missing an entire season, but sometimes (from memory), the powers-that-be aren't as generous as they technically should be (especially with such a prominent selection option).
    See post #1

  18. #18
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    1 Not allowed!

    The likelihood of viable R3 might make picking a Nic Nat easier. That and the increasing number of R/Fs might help pad him out a little. Maybe even an M/R is Mitch Grigg gets a gig

    I'm torn, I work as a Physio and as good of an athlete as he is - his mechanics are dreadful. I want to pick him and he may never hurt himself again, but I fear he's a time bomb until he fixes up some basic things (which hopefully he is) in which case ill be happier.
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  19. #19
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by sven_inc View Post
    The likelihood of viable R3 might make picking a Nic Nat easier. That and the increasing number of R/Fs might help pad him out a little. Maybe even an M/R is Mitch Grigg gets a gig

    I'm torn, I work as a Physio and as good of an athlete as he is - his mechanics are dreadful. I want to pick him and he may never hurt himself again, but I fear he's a time bomb until he fixes up some basic things (which hopefully he is) in which case ill be happier.
    Hi Sven. I was wondering if your training as a Physio has helped you make some good supercoach calls in the past or is it hard to judge from a distance?
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  20. #20
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    4 Not allowed!

    NicNat and Gawn look like popular picks but the question of cover is a real problem this year. I can't see one worth taking. Lycett, Ryder and Cameron have renounced their dual citizenship. Lobb's application came in too late. Tippet is old and out of favour. Even if you put Lycett at R3 he now has to compete with Vardy for a spot. Stranadica is good for loopholing but won't have anyone to float with.
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