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View Poll Results: Which forwards are you planning to start?

Voters
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  • Franklin

    8 10.81%
  • Heeney

    52 70.27%
  • Greene

    11 14.86%
  • Kennedy

    0 0%
  • Wingard

    2 2.70%
  • Billings

    45 60.81%
  • Gray

    16 21.62%
  • Dixon

    3 4.05%
  • McGovern

    1 1.35%
  • Cameron

    0 0%
  • Wallis

    2 2.70%
  • Westhoff

    1 1.35%
  • Walters

    12 16.22%
  • Roughead

    0 0%
  • Gunston

    0 0%
  • Hawkins

    0 0%
  • Walker

    0 0%
  • Daniher

    2 2.70%
  • Lambert

    3 4.05%
  • Pedersen

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #341
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    Quote Originally Posted by Herbie66 View Post
    it is quite amazing how things change , start of preseason people were saying how many forward rookies their were Bonar , Higgins , Starcevich , Venables , Garlett etc etc

    Bundy , Ah Chee , Bennell

    Yes I think we are all hoping for Fritsch , Giles-Langdon & Ryan (they all play Sunday in Rd 1 and with teams now naming 4 emergencies it will be even more stressful)

    Miers could be next in line and yep the Cats play Sunday.

    I have currently moved Sicily back to F5 & Cox at F6.

    Mind you I am relying on 5 rookie defenders to be named as well.

    It could all change again next week.
    I'm pretty confident that 5 rookie defenders will be named and I think they have reasonable JS as well. Cox at F6 is an interesting idea I've heard floated around, how do you think he will score?

    I'm also not on the Lycett bandwagon I feel you need to be on to go 6 deep in the forward line.

    And yes we had Ahern, Rioli, Garlett, Setterfield, Higgins and Bennell there to make us money and now look what we have
    Last edited by 1000litresgained; 14-03-2018 at 6:34pm.

  2. #342
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    ANALYSIS:

    Jackson Trengove FWD $344,900.

    He may be worth a look if he is going to spend a bit of time in the ruck. Otherwise, he isn't a particulary good scorer. However, he scored massive when Roughhead went off the ground in JLT 2 and he moved into the ruck.

    In 2016, when Lobbe and Ryder were out, Trengove spent a 12-13 rounds as the starting ruck, often moving around the ground. His ability to act almost as a midfielder and create bulk clearances saw a highlight of his SC career averaging 85.5pts.

    If he was slated to play ruck he could be a potential player worth looking at, but it looks like he'll mainly play forward with stints in the ruck and backline. In this role he is an awful SC scorer. Just worth keeping a note on his role going forward.
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  3. #343
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1000litresgained View Post
    I'm pretty confident that 5 rookie defenders will be named and I think they have reasonable JS as well. Cox at F6 is an interesting idea I've heard floated around, how do you think he will score?

    I'm also not on the Lycett bandwagon I feel you need to be on to go 6 deep in the forward line.

    And yes we had Ahern, Rioli, Garlett, Setterfield, Higgins and Bennell there to make us money and now look what we have
    Cox is probably priced to ave 60 , I think he would need to go closer to 75-80.

    Bucks has said he wants him 70% forward , 30% ruck but who knows.

    He could get a few tonnes here and there but also some 40's and 50's.

    I think 6 strong is too deep , you are almost predicting your best 6 forwards from the get go.

    4 + 2 around that $ 300,000.00 mark but try selecting those 2 Cyril , Cox , Dunkley , Bell , Bundy.

    6 deep you are then losing a premium in the mids or defence , I am trying to keep Cripps & Coniglio at M5 & M6.

    I think we are all hoping for the defender rookies :-)

    Coffield , Cole , Hibberd , Naughton , O'Shea , O' Brien probably are all 60 points a game.

    I have some doubts on Doedee , Finlayson , Murray being picked.

    Happy to play Keeffe as a D/F swing.

    Payne , Stoddart & Murphy might also be in the mix.

    Anxious wait for Round 1 teams.

    Forgot about Ahern & Setterfield.

    Stephenson might be in the mix but not sure of his JS if and when Elliott , Fas & Wells and de Goey come back.
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  4. #344
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1000litresgained View Post
    There's definitely a lot of risk playing Christensen at F5 but I can't do very much about it unless I start without Dangerfield, which was looking very likely until today. At the same time your comment made me mess around with my side and I liked what I could do. If I don't start Christensen I can turn Danger into Titch or Kelly and get McLean in at F4 and move D Smith to F5. However, that also depends on me getting Lachlan Murphy or Keefe and I don't trust their JS very much (or that they will be named R1). Not a massive fan of the Petracca pick I'm afraid, I think he will average about 90 this year, which is a bit under for me. My team looks pretty good without Dangerfield with McLean at F4 and Smith at F5 (despite the rookie issue at the back) but I do think Danger is a necessity to keep in your side if it's only a minor hamstring issue and he's likely to miss one week. I will still most likely hold out on the hope that Christensen can find some form and make some money. I agree he could easily average 65-70 early but I also think he could average about 80 and peak with a big performance. Otherwise I'll hope that I can pounce on Snoop Fogg or Stephenson or Rioli or Garlett by downgrading him if they start looking very good on the bubble and he looks average. Nevertheless my side looks pretty good without Danger, which has me thinking whether it is actually best to start without him regardless of whether he comes back after 1 game (when he may also not be 100%)

    The fact you have Sicily in there is fairly handy and I think he's more likely to be a D5 than an F6 this year (he's in my backline), quite a few forwards look set to improve and will average 90-105 this season, I can't see the same happening in the back line. I actually don't mind your F5 move that much, but like I said I'm not comfortable with Petracca mostly because I see Viney forcing him into the forward line and although I think he will improve by about 15 points he will end up as about the 11th or 12th best forward. As you've pointed out, you are likely to replace one player through injury through the season and as long as you see Petracca as a top 6-10 scorer it's a smart move considering the lack of rookies in that space. I do think Langdon has reasonable JS only because they've identified him as a pressure forward to help them with their lack of pressure in that area and he's someone I'm comfortable selecting. F6 might be too deep to go with or it might be the best you can do without much to like up forward. It's probably not worth selecting Snoop Fogg and definitely not worth selecting Rayner or Stephenson but one of them could be a decent downgrade option from Christensen for me if he looks pretty bad early on.

    My decision hinges mostly on what goes on with Danger and if Murphy/Keefe will be named.

    Are you really that confident in Lycett by the way?
    Yeah I think Danger is a fair risk at that price coming off a hammy. My main reason for starting him was his C scores but if he's kind of underdone due to the hammy, I don't think I'll be that burnt by him going massive. Moreover, probably more likely to have a few quieter games early on.

    If u can turn Danger + Bundy into a fwd prem, I think it's worthwhile!

    I'm pretty likely to start Lycett. Reasons for and against already done to death in the ruck thread and I'm happy enough to back him in after weighing up everything.

  5. #345
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    Just thought i'd do a little analysis of some certain forwards:

    Toby Mclean FWD $470,200

    2017 Scores:
    AVG in Wins: 88.89
    AVG in losses: 82.50
    AVG in Victoria: 79.4
    AVG Interstate: 92 (highlighted by 123, 97, 129 in his last 3 interstate games)
    AVG with Jong: 72.5
    AVG w/o Jong: 98.9
    AVG with Wallis: 93
    AVG w/o Wallis: 78.4

    Note i chose these two as they play similar spots/roles and both missed about half the season.

    Also note, Wallis played the back end of the season and Jong played the front end. McLean seemed to take over Jong's role and was uninhabited by Wallis rejoining the team. However, i think also the fact that McLean played so well would mean he is now in front of Jong for that midfield role rather than a HFF.


    Kane Lambert FWD $472,500

    2017 Scores (including finals):

    AVG in Wins: 88.50
    AVG in losses: 87.02
    AVG in Victoria: 87.67
    AVG Interstate: 91.50

    So even considering if you think Richmond won't be Top 4, Lambert showed he can perform well away from home and in losses as well.

    Note: both players are entering a key development year being their 4th year where steps are expected to be taken forward around this time.


    Michael Walters FWD $478,300

    2017 Scores:

    AVG in Wins: 100.71
    AVG in losses: 73.29
    AVG in WA: 91.43
    AVG Interstate: 82.57

    Note: If you select him you are in for an absolute wild ride. 87 average in 2017.
    However, he had 5 scores under 50 (playing the full game in all) and 3 over 130 in 17 games last year.

    If you think Fremantle are in for a lot of losses again this year then I would avoid Walters. His average of 70 in losses doesn't bode well with a 7-10 record when playing last year.

    Travis Boak FWD $467,800

    2017 Scores (inc finals):

    AVG in Wins: 86.62 (Had a game in China for 153dt and 93sc on the back of 53% disposal efficiency. Conversely, Dixon went at the same disposal efficiency, kicked 2.2, had 1 more clanger, the same contested possesions, 5 less marks and finished with 87dt 90sc. Sometimes, SC doesn't work properly)
    AVG in losses: 83.89
    AVG in SA: 77.69
    AVG Interstate: 93.88

    Note: With Boak becoming older and Ken enjoying when he plays forward i could see that midfield time really diminished as it was last year. The addition of Rockliff with SPP getting a year older don't bode well for he or Hartlett entering the midfield anywhere close to what they previously used to. However, Boak did spend a lot of time forward in 2016 for a 91 average. He actually averaged 2pts higher dream team last year for a 6pt lower sc average. If he can correct his disposal to the past 5 years he could be a good addition. Also note, if you rate port a good chance of moving into the top 4, Boak averaged 106 in 2013 and 2014 when Port made good finals performances (although playing almost purely in the midfield).


    Any questions or others you'd like me to do, please let me know.
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  6. #346
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    Quote Originally Posted by quite ironic View Post
    Just thought i'd do a little analysis of some certain forwards:

    Toby Mclean FWD $470,200

    2017 Scores:
    AVG in Wins: 88.89
    AVG in losses: 82.50
    AVG in Victoria: 79.4
    AVG Interstate: 92 (highlighted by 123, 97, 129 in his last 3 interstate games)
    AVG with Jong: 72.5
    AVG w/o Jong: 98.9
    AVG with Wallis: 93
    AVG w/o Wallis: 78.4

    Note i chose these two as they play similar spots/roles and both missed about half the season.

    Also note, Wallis played the back end of the season and Jong played the front end. McLean seemed to take over Jong's role and was uninhabited by Wallis rejoining the team. However, i think also the fact that McLean played so well would mean he is now in front of Jong for that midfield role rather than a HFF.


    Kane Lambert FWD $472,500

    2017 Scores (including finals):

    AVG in Wins: 88.50
    AVG in losses: 87.02
    AVG in Victoria: 87.67
    AVG Interstate: 91.50

    So even considering if you think Richmond won't be Top 4, Lambert showed he can perform well away from home and in losses as well.

    Note: both players are entering a key development year being their 4th year where steps are expected to be taken forward around this time.


    Michael Walters FWD $478,300

    2017 Scores:

    AVG in Wins: 100.71
    AVG in losses: 73.29
    AVG in WA: 91.43
    AVG Interstate: 82.57

    Note: If you select him you are in for an absolute wild ride. 87 average in 2017.
    However, he had 5 scores under 50 (playing the full game in all) and 3 over 130 in 17 games last year.

    If you think Fremantle are in for a lot of losses again this year then I would avoid Walters. His average of 70 in losses doesn't bode well with a 7-10 record when playing last year.

    Travis Boak FWD $467,800

    2017 Scores (inc finals):

    AVG in Wins: 86.62 (Had a game in China for 153dt and 93sc on the back of 53% disposal efficiency. Conversely, Dixon went at the same disposal efficiency, kicked 2.2, had 1 more clanger, the same contested possesions, 5 less marks and finished with 87dt 90sc. Sometimes, SC doesn't work properly)
    AVG in losses: 83.89
    AVG in SA: 77.69
    AVG Interstate: 93.88

    Note: With Boak becoming older and Ken enjoying when he plays forward i could see that midfield time really diminished as it was last year. The addition of Rockliff with SPP getting a year older don't bode well for he or Hartlett entering the midfield anywhere close to what they previously used to. However, Boak did spend a lot of time forward in 2016 for a 91 average. He actually averaged 2pts higher dream team last year for a 6pt lower sc average. If he can correct his disposal to the past 5 years he could be a good addition. Also note, if you rate port a good chance of moving into the top 4, Boak averaged 106 in 2013 and 2014 when Port made good finals performances (although playing almost purely in the midfield).


    Any questions or others you'd like me to do, please let me know.
    very interesting quite ironic

    have Lambert & McLean

    would be interested if you could do Papley please

    Cheers
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  7. #347
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    Quote Originally Posted by quite ironic View Post
    Just thought i'd do a little analysis of some certain forwards:

    Toby Mclean FWD $470,200

    2017 Scores:
    AVG in Wins: 88.89
    AVG in losses: 82.50
    AVG in Victoria: 79.4
    AVG Interstate: 92 (highlighted by 123, 97, 129 in his last 3 interstate games)
    AVG with Jong: 72.5
    AVG w/o Jong: 98.9
    AVG with Wallis: 93
    AVG w/o Wallis: 78.4

    Note i chose these two as they play similar spots/roles and both missed about half the season.

    Also note, Wallis played the back end of the season and Jong played the front end. McLean seemed to take over Jong's role and was uninhabited by Wallis rejoining the team. However, i think also the fact that McLean played so well would mean he is now in front of Jong for that midfield role rather than a HFF.


    Kane Lambert FWD $472,500

    2017 Scores (including finals):

    AVG in Wins: 88.50
    AVG in losses: 87.02
    AVG in Victoria: 87.67
    AVG Interstate: 91.50

    So even considering if you think Richmond won't be Top 4, Lambert showed he can perform well away from home and in losses as well.

    Note: both players are entering a key development year being their 4th year where steps are expected to be taken forward around this time.


    Michael Walters FWD $478,300

    2017 Scores:

    AVG in Wins: 100.71
    AVG in losses: 73.29
    AVG in WA: 91.43
    AVG Interstate: 82.57

    Note: If you select him you are in for an absolute wild ride. 87 average in 2017.
    However, he had 5 scores under 50 (playing the full game in all) and 3 over 130 in 17 games last year.

    If you think Fremantle are in for a lot of losses again this year then I would avoid Walters. His average of 70 in losses doesn't bode well with a 7-10 record when playing last year.

    Travis Boak FWD $467,800

    2017 Scores (inc finals):

    AVG in Wins: 86.62 (Had a game in China for 153dt and 93sc on the back of 53% disposal efficiency. Conversely, Dixon went at the same disposal efficiency, kicked 2.2, had 1 more clanger, the same contested possesions, 5 less marks and finished with 87dt 90sc. Sometimes, SC doesn't work properly)
    AVG in losses: 83.89
    AVG in SA: 77.69
    AVG Interstate: 93.88

    Note: With Boak becoming older and Ken enjoying when he plays forward i could see that midfield time really diminished as it was last year. The addition of Rockliff with SPP getting a year older don't bode well for he or Hartlett entering the midfield anywhere close to what they previously used to. However, Boak did spend a lot of time forward in 2016 for a 91 average. He actually averaged 2pts higher dream team last year for a 6pt lower sc average. If he can correct his disposal to the past 5 years he could be a good addition. Also note, if you rate port a good chance of moving into the top 4, Boak averaged 106 in 2013 and 2014 when Port made good finals performances (although playing almost purely in the midfield).


    Any questions or others you'd like me to do, please let me know.
    Walters was at his best when his side played better but what we are really looking at as coaches is what he did when played through the midfield. He averaged 98 in losses after moving into the middle (discounting the game where he got injured - 91 with it) and 124 in wins. He also averaged 77.4 in losses through the season, not 73.29 and 80.7 if you discount the injury affected game. I think that him playing well was also massively influential on Freo's best performances and was a massive factor causing them, i.e. against Essendon in the 2nd half, Richmond (3 votes), Carlton (2 votes), Geelong (2 votes) and St Kilda (3 votes). He was their best ball user kicking inside 50 and it benefited them massively in those games. You're right in saying he plays well when his team plays well but I would argue that the amount of damage he can inflict on the opposition when he is at his best is also a catalyst for his team playing some of their better games.
    Last edited by 1000litresgained; 15-03-2018 at 2:04am.

  8. #348
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    id take out his super high score where he kicked like 7 goals too- he gets injured a hell of a lot more than he does that

  9. #349
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    Quote Originally Posted by bianchije View Post
    id take out his super high score where he kicked like 7 goals too- he gets injured a hell of a lot more than he does that
    Only a handful of players have ever put together a kind of performance like that. Stevie J, Ablett Snr, Robbie Gray last year, Wayne Carey and Luke Hodge are some the few who have scored 6 goals and had 30 disposals. 99%+ of players get injured more than they put together that kind of performance. It showcases how talented a footballer the guy is, he just needs to be more consistent.

  10. #350
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1000litresgained View Post
    Walters was at his best when his side played better but what we are really looking at as coaches is what he did when played through the midfield. He averaged 98 in losses after moving into the middle (discounting the game where he got injured - 91 with it) and 124 in wins. He also averaged 77.4 in losses through the season, not 73.29 and 80.7 if you discount the injury affected game. I think that him playing well was also massively influential on Freo's best performances and was a massive factor causing them, i.e. against Essendon in the 2nd half, Richmond (3 votes), Carlton (2 votes), Geelong (2 votes) and St Kilda (3 votes). He was their best ball user kicking inside 50 and it benefited them massively in those games. You're right in saying he plays well when his team plays well but I would argue that the amount of damage he can inflict on the opposition when he is at his best is also a catalyst for his team playing some of their better games.
    My mistake there on the losses: 96.6 for wins and 77.4 for losses.

    However, the thing is, we know he CAN score well in the midfield but it's a risk that he will be playing all games there.

    He played 7 games as a pure mid, 6 as a pure forward and 4 as a large mixture.

    His 5 sub 50 scores came with 3 as a pure forward, 1 as a midfield when getting injured early in the 4th quarter and 1 as a mix of forward and mid.

    The thing is, he almost certainly WILL have games as a pure forward and that can result in very low scores.

    It's easy to take out a game where he was injured in the 4th but he played 66% TOG so even if he finished the last 20 mins of the game he was unlikely to score more than 15-20 pts which would only boost his average by 1pt for the season.

    Conversely, how many times is he going to score 172 again which did boost his averaged up to 87 last year.

    Add in the fact they have Fyfe to come back this year and they already have Fyfe, Neale, Blakely, Hill, Hill, Mundy and potentially Bennell rotating through the mids this year.

    He will definitely spend time as a pure forward this year which could easily result in low scores and comes with a huge risk unless you are absolutely certain he will be playing mainly midfield this year..

    Too up and down for me but if you are prepared to take the risk and have other guys who are consistent in the forward line then he may be worth the gamble.
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  11. #351
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    Walters only had 3 CBAs in the final JLT fwiw (source: fantasyfreako).
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  12. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by quite ironic View Post
    My mistake there on the losses: 96.6 for wins and 77.4 for losses.

    However, the thing is, we know he CAN score well in the midfield but it's a risk that he will be playing all games there.

    He played 7 games as a pure mid, 6 as a pure forward and 4 as a large mixture.

    His 5 sub 50 scores came with 3 as a pure forward, 1 as a midfield when getting injured early in the 4th quarter and 1 as a mix of forward and mid.

    The thing is, he almost certainly WILL have games as a pure forward and that can result in very low scores.

    It's easy to take out a game where he was injured in the 4th but he played 66% TOG so even if he finished the last 20 mins of the game he was unlikely to score more than 15-20 pts which would only boost his average by 1pt for the season.

    Conversely, how many times is he going to score 172 again which did boost his averaged up to 87 last year.

    Add in the fact they have Fyfe to come back this year and they already have Fyfe, Neale, Blakely, Hill, Hill, Mundy and potentially Bennell rotating through the mids this year.

    He will definitely spend time as a pure forward this year which could easily result in low scores and comes with a huge risk unless you are absolutely certain he will be playing mainly midfield this year..

    Too up and down for me but if you are prepared to take the risk and have other guys who are consistent in the forward line then he may be worth the gamble.

    Walters played 50/50 midfield and forward between round 7 and the St Kilda game last year according to champion data and I think he'll play similar this year. Yes there is a concern about his role but I think that they will play him there 50% because he can be so influential and damaging through the midfield.

    Of course it's a high risk high reward selection but I feel it's one worth taking in the forward line. Not many players who average 108 over a 10 game period will ever be priced at 87.

    I also don't think you can discount his highest score and call it an aberration, it designates his ceiling as a scorer and is backed up by 5 other tonnes in a 9 week stretch. I won't be surprised if he turns out to not be the pick I think he is but I think you need to take the odd risk.
    Last edited by 1000litresgained; 16-03-2018 at 2:38am.

  13. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by quite ironic View Post
    ANALYSIS:

    Jackson Trengove FWD $344,900.

    He may be worth a look if he is going to spend a bit of time in the ruck. Otherwise, he isn't a particulary good scorer. However, he scored massive when Roughhead went off the ground in JLT 2 and he moved into the ruck.

    In 2016, when Lobbe and Ryder were out, Trengove spent a 12-13 rounds as the starting ruck, often moving around the ground. His ability to act almost as a midfielder and create bulk clearances saw a highlight of his SC career averaging 85.5pts.

    If he was slated to play ruck he could be a potential player worth looking at, but it looks like he'll mainly play forward with stints in the ruck and backline. In this role he is an awful SC scorer. Just worth keeping a note on his role going forward.
    Ha! This is exactly what I have been looking at. Also, he scored 78sc from 67% TOG in JLT1. Not super impressive on it's own but if you adjust that score to his average of 83% TOG it jumps up to 96sc. JLT2 saw Trengove score 102 from 83% TOG after Roughead went down and he played around the ball, racking up 24 touches and 19 HO.
    In 2016 when Ryder was out suspended, Trengove averaged 96sc when playing that ruck role (games selected where 15 HO or more) so the scoring history is there.
    Where it gets really interesting is the doggies opening few games and potential ruck opponents:

    Round 1 - Giants
    Mumford retired, Lobb injured so Dawson Simpson, Patton or even Keefe look to be the likely opponents

    Round 2 - Eagles
    Vardy injured so either an underdone Naitanui, or more likely Lycett.

    Round 3 - Bombers
    Bellchambers is a solid ruck, but hardly a world-beater

    Round 4 - Swans
    Tippet retired, Naismith and Sinclair injured so Towers looks to be the likely opponent here

    Round 5 - Fremantle

    Ok, so this is where the experiment may have to end with Carlton and Kreuzer up next after Sandi.

    Still, a very tempting opening fixture. I can't see him averaging 133 over the opening 6 rounds like Cloke did in 2013, setting the eventual winner on the path to success, but I can see a 100+ average over that time frame which could get some useful points on the board, generate a bit of cash and potentially facilitate a quick upgrade to an underpriced Dangerfield if he starts slowly.

    It's an extremely risky move and it's still a coin toss whether I run with it or not. If Roughead doesn't get up in time for round 1, then it will be looking fairly likely.

    I probably need round one to start ASAP, get my head out of stats spreadsheets and stop tinkering before I come up with another hair-brained scheme like this. Thoughts? Have I lost my mind? Or does this have merit?
    Last edited by WandP; 16-03-2018 at 7:54am.
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  14. #354
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    Quote Originally Posted by WandP View Post
    Ha! This is exactly what I have been looking at. Also, he scored 78sc from 67% TOG in JLT1. Not super impressive on it's own but if you adjust that score to his average of 83% TOG it jumps up to 96sc. JLT2 saw Trengove score 102 from 83% TOG after Roughead went down and he played around the ball, racking up 24 touches and 19 HO.
    In 2016 when Ryder was out suspended, Trengove averaged 96sc when playing that ruck role (games selected where 15 HO or more) so the scoring history is there.
    Where it gets really interesting is the doggies opening few games and potential ruck opponents:

    Round 1 - Giants
    Mumford retired, Lobb injured so Dawson Simpson, Patton or even Keefe look to be the likely opponents

    Round 2 - Eagles
    Vardy injured so either an underdone Naitanui, or more likely Lycett.

    Round 3 - Bombers
    Bellchambers is a solid ruck, but hardly a world-beater

    Round 4 - Swans
    Tippet retired, Naismith and Sinclair injured so Towers looks to be the likely opponent here

    Round 5 - Fremantle

    Ok, so this is where the experiment may have to end with Carlton and Kreuzer up next after Sandi.

    Still, a very tempting opening fixture. I can't see him averaging 133 over the opening 6 rounds like Cloke did in 2013, setting the eventual winner on the path to success, but I can see a 100+ average over that time frame which could get some useful points on the board, generate a bit of cash and potentially facilitate a quick upgrade to an underpriced Dangerfield if he starts slowly.

    It's an extremely risky move and it's still a coin toss whether I run with it or not. If Roughead doesn't get up in time for round 1, then it will be looking fairly likely.

    I probably need round one to start ASAP, get my head out of stats spreadsheets and stop tinkering before I come up with another hair-brained scheme like this. Thoughts? Have I lost my mind? Or does this have merit?


    Chances are Roughead will be back very early in the season, so that wouldn't help Trengove's scoring.
    BTW, good to think outside the box

    CHRIS CAVANAGH AND KATE SALEMME, Herald Sun
    March 14, 2018 5:18pm
    In doubt – Jordan Roughead (groin)
    INJURY ANALYSIS: Jordan Roughead sent a major scare through the Bulldogs camp on Saturday when he appeared to hurt his hip/groin against Collingwood in a marking contest. He didn’t play after half time, with the Dogs opting to take no risks given he is such an important player. The club is confident he will be OK for Round 1.
    SuperCoach:  11,227 (2017)  21,624 (2016)  33,299 (2015)  3,995 (2014) 


  15. #355
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    Anyone know more information on Barlow?
    Seems to have a decent preseason, but havent played in any games so far.

  16. #356
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1000litresgained View Post
    Walters played 50/50 midfield and forward between round 7 and the St Kilda game last year according to champion data and I think he'll play similar this year. Yes there is a concern about his role but I think that they will play him there 50% because he can be so influential and damaging through the midfield.

    Of course it's a high risk high reward selection but I feel it's one worth taking in the forward line. Not many players who average 108 over a 10 game period will ever be priced at 87.

    I also don't think you can discount his highest score and call it an aberration, it designates his ceiling as a scorer and is backed up by 5 other tonnes in a 9 week stretch. I won't be surprised if he turns out to not be the pick I think he is but I think you need to take the odd risk.
    Will he play 50/50 midfield though? He's damaging, but Freo have a fit Fyfe and Neale plus Blakely, Hill bros on the wings (they've also used Stephen at cbs at times), Brayshaw likely to get plenty of games, Cerra could have an impact as well.
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  17. #357
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    Quote Originally Posted by McLovin View Post
    Will he play 50/50 midfield though? He's damaging, but Freo have a fit Fyfe and Neale plus Blakely, Hill bros on the wings (they've also used Stephen at cbs at times), Brayshaw likely to get plenty of games, Cerra could have an impact as well.
    He's 4th in line for CBA's and will run a lot off a HFF.
    Last edited by 1000litresgained; 16-03-2018 at 2:01pm.

  18. #358
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    What are people's thoughts on Kane Lambert, Josh Caddy and Charlie Curnow? Could any of them be worth the punt this season?

    Can add Toby McLean to the list as well...
    SuperCoach:  675 (2018)  19,141 (2017)  26,109 (2016)  12,326 (2015)  1,073 (2014)  19,632 (2013) 

    Serve no master but your ambition!!
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  19. #359
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    Quote Originally Posted by anfa18 View Post
    What are people's thoughts on Kane Lambert, Josh Caddy and Charlie Curnow? Could any of them be worth the punt this season?

    Can add Toby McLean to the list as well...
    I like Lambert and McLean. Will start one of them at the most.
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  20. #360
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    I personally can’t see the hype in Tom Bell..

    A month or two ago he was barely best 22. I think he could easily be out of the side with one bad game and has low job security (if he is even picked as best 22 to begin with).

    Now that they have Charlie Cameron and Rayner entering the side, his spot looks even shakier than last year.

    Cameron, Rayner, Taylor, Christensen and guys like Mathieson, Mcgluggage, Zorko etc running through the forward line really puts pressure on whether he has a spot or not.

    Triple M did a best 22 yesterday and he wasn’t even featured on the bench, SEN’s earlier best 22 didn’t have him featured. The AFL website previewing every Club’s best 22 didn’t have him in the 22 either, which was also posted onto their club website. Finally, foxsports had him on the bench.

    I personally think it’s a speculative pick at best and people who are picking him were sucked in by the JLT. But that’s pure feel and personal opinion on his role and job security that I’m basing this on as well.

    Also note, he played 6 games last year, was relegated to the NEAFL for 6 games and then injured for the rest of the year.

    Brisbane have lost: Schache who played 10 games.

    Added: Cameron, Hodge and Rayner who are all best 22.

    Will get more experience into: Mathieson (13 games), Cox (8 games), Witherden (9 games), Berry (16 games), Smith (6 games) and Keays (10 games)

    And have Mitch Robinson (7 games) and Christensen (0 games) returning from injury.

    All in all, Bell has very shakey (at best) job security and it must be considered whether he is even best 22 or not. He is entering his 7th season, has played 69 games in his career, has horrific disposal and has shown no signs of establishing a good career at Brisbane. He should be entering his prime, yet he is a fringe player on one of the youngest, most inexperienced sides in the comp. I think the huge risk outweighs the potential reward.
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