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View Poll Results: Which forwards are you planning to start?

Voters
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  • Franklin

    8 10.81%
  • Heeney

    52 70.27%
  • Greene

    11 14.86%
  • Kennedy

    0 0%
  • Wingard

    2 2.70%
  • Billings

    45 60.81%
  • Gray

    16 21.62%
  • Dixon

    3 4.05%
  • McGovern

    1 1.35%
  • Cameron

    0 0%
  • Wallis

    2 2.70%
  • Westhoff

    1 1.35%
  • Walters

    12 16.22%
  • Roughead

    0 0%
  • Gunston

    0 0%
  • Hawkins

    0 0%
  • Walker

    0 0%
  • Daniher

    2 2.70%
  • Lambert

    3 4.05%
  • Pedersen

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    This is a bit of a concern, will need to consider this.

    Heeney also to miss at least a month - this looks worse than previously expected?

    https://www.footywire.com/afl/club/p...aphy/4026.html
    Quote Originally Posted by Blaze View Post
    not returning until late jan - everyone will still have him but certainly could be a POD move to not pick him. You have got me thinking on that one Darkie that is for sure
    It's an interesting one. I was bullish on him for 2017 and that worked out pretty well (albeit not in round one) although there are a few pluses and minuses versus this year as I see it:

    - Previously his best season was an 80, so we now know he can score at premium level (averaged 98, third highest for the 2018 forwards).

    - In 2017 he had glandular fever issues, and this can be quite debilitating, but he scored pretty well from his second round back (75, then three tons). He averaged the same pre and post bye (97-98). He may now have shown that he can score will without a strong pre-season and can do so in his first few games back.

    - He will also have had one more preseason, albeit an interrupted one.

    - I don't think the Swans setup will change materially (?) but I did comment yesterday that Lloyd scored worse after McVeigh made a permanent return from round 15 onwards, and it looks like Heeney did too (around 92). This was not commented on at the time to my knowledge (unlike with Lloyd) and could be coincidence, a knock-on effect from role changes, or Heeney tiring in the latter part of the year due to an interrupted preseason.

    - He's $100k dearer. This is a fairly significant difference, albeit he was likely picked as a keeper last year as well.

    - The other very top forwards don't look that appealing, although I can't quite recall if this was true last year as well (I think Dahl and Macrae were?). Menegola is out for me given role competition from Jelwood and now Ablett, and I haven't seen Buddy in a side yet (should he be a more serious consideration?). Greene is always problematic and 2017 was no different, maybe worse. Maybe Heeney looks less unappealing than some of these guys, and is worth starting even with a preseason issue and a higher price?
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  2. #22
    GoGeta
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    0 Not allowed!

    Will probably still start him if it stays under a month, if it stretches out more weeks i'll consider an upgrade target.
      Quote Quote

  3. #23
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    Wasn't it just a clean up rather than an injury? I would have thought that was good management and good preseason supercoach news.
    It looks to me like the forward line is chock full of value and rookies anyway so a premiumless forward line might be the way to go. And he's priced at 98 plus the start of the year levy so can be a trade in target.
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  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoGeta View Post
    Will probably still start him if it stays under a month, if it stretches out more weeks i'll consider an upgrade target.
    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    Wasn't it just a clean up rather than an injury? I would have thought that was good management and good preseason supercoach news.
    It looks to me like the forward line is chock full of value and rookies anyway so a premiumless forward line might be the way to go. And he's priced at 98 plus the start of the year levy so can be a trade in target.
    This was the text at the link:

    Wednesday, 13 December 2017
    Isaac Heeney will miss at least a month of training after undergoing knee surgery.
    The 21-year-old had been training with the main group since the club's younger players returned to training in late November, but experienced some knee pain and opted for arthroscopic surgery.
    Some minor damage to his knee cartilage was repaired and he is expected to return to the main group by late January.
    Adam Curley for AFL.com.au

    I read this to be a worse than expected outcome - missing at least a month seems like a reasonable cost at this time of year, and one you wouldn't take on knowingly unless you really had to? - but wasn't sure.

    Who else do you like up forward?
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  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    This was the text at the link:

    Wednesday, 13 December 2017
    Isaac Heeney will miss at least a month of training after undergoing knee surgery.
    The 21-year-old had been training with the main group since the club's younger players returned to training in late November, but experienced some knee pain and opted for arthroscopic surgery.
    Some minor damage to his knee cartilage was repaired and he is expected to return to the main group by late January.
    Adam Curley for AFL.com.au

    I read this to be a worse than expected outcome - missing at least a month seems like a reasonable cost at this time of year, and one you wouldn't take on knowingly unless you really had to? - but wasn't sure.

    Who else do you like up forward?
    I was trying to put together a team last night and it is very unconventional. I usually place 3 or 4 captains first, then the best cash cows keeping in mind who has to play on the ground. My understanding of rookies at this time of year is not detailed like others in the community but in the forward line alone I have Ahern, Venables, Rioli, Ryan, Garlett, Higgins, Drummond and an expensive Rayner with good job security. Then there are cheap breakout or returning players like Ah Chee, Bennell, Deledio and Christensen. Finally there are a few I wouldn't mind taking a chance on. Lobb has already had plenty of attention. Mathieson without Rockliff. C Curnow had a great finish this year. Daniher hasn't missed a game for 3 years and should improve again. My real smokey is Hogan but only because Melbourne have a ripping start for key position forwards. My prayers at the moment are for some cheap defensive and ruck cash cows. Darcy Cameron might be our best chance of a good R3. Scott Jones and Tim English, outside chances.
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  6. #26
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    Just wondering whether Buddy is a more viable option than I had thought:

    - Priced at 98, second highest of all forwards - only Menegola averaged higher
    - Has played 19 1/2 @ 100 on average since 2007, albeit boosted modestly by his 2010-12 scoring at the Hawks
    - Has played 20 @ 95 over four years at the Swans
    - Sydney surely won't start as badly as they did this year, could he score better?
    - Hanners early, and JPK throughout, were below their best as well
    - Seems to have become more durable and more consistent, so the argument for not starting a KPF (buy the inevitable dip) may be less applicable if he maintains this. His low price was only 15% below his starting price last year, with th MN decline explaining around 7%.
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  7. #27
    GoGeta
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    This was the text at the link:

    Wednesday, 13 December 2017
    Isaac Heeney will miss at least a month of training after undergoing knee surgery.
    The 21-year-old had been training with the main group since the club's younger players returned to training in late November, but experienced some knee pain and opted for arthroscopic surgery.
    Some minor damage to his knee cartilage was repaired and he is expected to return to the main group by late January.
    Adam Curley for AFL.com.au

    I read this to be a worse than expected outcome - missing at least a month seems like a reasonable cost at this time of year, and one you wouldn't take on knowingly unless you really had to? - but wasn't sure.

    Who else do you like up forward?
    Papley, Billings, Lobb
      Quote Quote

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    I was trying to put together a team last night and it is very unconventional. I usually place 3 or 4 captains first, then the best cash cows keeping in mind who has to play on the ground. My understanding of rookies at this time of year is not detailed like others in the community but in the forward line alone I have Ahern, Venables, Rioli, Ryan, Garlett, Higgins, Drummond and an expensive Rayner with good job security. Then there are cheap breakout or returning players like Ah Chee, Bennell, Deledio and Christensen. Finally there are a few I wouldn't mind taking a chance on. Lobb has already had plenty of attention. Mathieson without Rockliff. C Curnow had a great finish this year. Daniher hasn't missed a game for 3 years and should improve again. My real smokey is Hogan but only because Melbourne have a ripping start for key position forwards. My prayers at the moment are for some cheap defensive and ruck cash cows. Darcy Cameron might be our best chance of a good R3. Scott Jones and Tim English, outside chances.
    Quote Originally Posted by GoGeta View Post
    Papley, Billings, Lobb
    Thanks guys. Interesting that there are so few premiums being discussed here, some forward lines could be quite cheap/maybe a bit more speculative. I am currently looking at Heeney, Gray, Dahl, Lids, Bennell plus three rookies (and Ah Chee in the mids). There are injury or role issues around every one of those players, although I suppose in the forward line the role risk is the upside (fwd=>mid, rather than the reverse, eg), it's just a question of whether it's realised.

    Personally I'm not overly drawn to players around the $400k mark unless they've shown a fair bit to indicate they can score consistently at premium level for periods, and some role upside. Lobb looks the closest to fitting that bill, but I had a few reservations on him ... I think I typed them up but lost them the other day, so I might as well include them here! Hopefully I've got all the details right:

    - Lobb's upside seems to be via role, playing #1 ruck ... but this role is not that lucrative in many cases. Only 18 rucks averaged above 75 last year: many of them by not much, and 75 is a long way from what you'd hope for (it's also the dead average SC score: 3,300 points per game / 44 players). Only 8 managed 94 or better, which is around the low end of what you'd want for a forward keeper (acknowledging that Lobb would be a cheap keeper, if he hit that level).

    - Lobb appears to have an excellent H2A % (best in the league) but apparently rucked a lot versus backup rucks - so I would be reluctant to assume he can manage something similar in 2018.

    - Rucking is a challenging physical role that we are not sure he can sustain at this stage.

    - Someone commented that Lobb's two games as primary ruck were two finals, in which he scored a 108 and a 129. These are obviously strong scores, but they were against Nank and Vardy/Petrie, who are at the weaker end of his potential competition.

    - His DT scores were modest, so it seems his H2As may be a big part of his strong SC scoring when playing ruck.

    I'll be interested to see what the prospectus has to say about him when it comes out, particularly regarding his longer-term record as ruck. He'd be a steal if he could perform at forward keeper level, the question for me is how likely that is.
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  9. #29
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    Liking how unpopular Menagola is.
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  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nathan View Post
    Liking how unpopular Menagola is.
    Low risk, low reward initial selection for mine. Sat between 460k and 500k all season this year. While I think he's a fine selection, not having him in your starting side is very unlikely to ruin your season.

    Rookies permitting, to me this looks like a year to go lean in the forward line and go 1 deeper in the mids than usual and Menagola looks to be the one that is cut from my squad.
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  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nathan View Post
    Liking how unpopular Menagola is.
    Still early days, but there was a stat suggesting his average was boosted by Selwood missing games. He was also dropped a number of times. Still on the radar due to his ability to be in that 95-100 bracket but I think Russ has nailed it, low reward for his high price.
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  12. #32
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    Seen Charlie Curnow's name mentioned in the occasional side on the "Rate my team" thread, so went and had a look at his stats from last year.

    Scored 92 in round 14 and went on to average 92.7 for the rest of the season, and priced at an average of ~74 heading into 2018 I can see why a few people are being tempted by this kid, who I think is a super talent.

    So why the sudden jump? Averaged 57.4 up until round 14 before averaging the aforementioned 92.7 for the remainder of the season. That's a difference of 35.3 points per game, and relativity out of the blue looking at his scoring (having had no gradual increase throughout the season). Looking at his stats throughout the season there was no drastic increase, 12.1 Disposals a game up to round 14, compared to 16.4 disposals per game from round 14 onward, an increase of only 4.3 touches per game, not enough to explain a 35.3 increase in scoring. While his goal kicking only increased from .55 goals per game leading into round 14, to 1.4 goals there after. Is 4 touches more and a goal worth the increase of 35.3 points per game?

    So my question goes out to Carlton fans, or even just people that saw him for a majority of the season, what caused this drastic jump? Did he move into the midfield more to gain more contested possessions, or was it maybe his disposal that he tidied up in the second part of the season?

    Would love some insights into this, and any thoughts or opinions would be greatly appreciated.
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  13. #33
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    That's a difference of 35.3 points per game, and relativity out of the blue looking at his scoring
    I saw what you did there
    There are no shortcuts to anywhere that is worth going to.
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  14. #34
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    I’ve got an x vs y.

    Billings and Ceglar vs Nic Nat and Delideo

    It’s a hard one only because everyone will have Nic Nat, and this gives me some good PODs if he doesn’t come good.
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  15. #35
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    Harley Bennel up to his old tricks, chucked out of a nightclub and missed training again. Can't remember what Freo gave up for him but I can guarantee it was too much.....
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  16. #36
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    https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/fr...-ng-b88708952z

    Bit more here BigRuss. Even as an eagles supporter this is one of the few dockers, along with fyfe, that i actually want to see on the park!
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  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by lavenderbandit View Post
    https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/fr...-ng-b88708952z

    Bit more here BigRuss. Even as an eagles supporter this is one of the few dockers, along with fyfe, that i actually want to see on the park!
    Yeah I hear you mate, I think everyone wants him back on the field except for him. Heres hoping he wakes up one day in the near future and realises what a fool he's been.
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  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    Yeah I hear you mate, I think everyone wants him back on the field except for him. Heres hoping he wakes up one day in the near future and realises what a fool he's been.
    It's not all doom and gloom for those of us in the Harley 2018SC camp. Surely there are a couple of positives that can be taken from this latest saga.
    Positive number 1: if he's capable of taking on a couple of bouncers I'd say his calf must be feeling ok.
    Positive number 2: if he's spending that much time in nightclubs you'd have to think he's moving rather freely and would be building his cardio fitness levels.
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  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    It's not all doom and gloom for those of us in the Harley 2018SC camp. Surely there are a couple of positives that can be taken from this latest saga.
    Positive number 1: if he's capable of taking on a couple of bouncers I'd say his calf must be feeling ok.
    Positive number 2: if he's spending that much time in nightclubs you'd have to think he's moving rather freely and would be building his cardio fitness levels.
    My skin folds have gone up since I stopped clubbing and pubbing. I don't throw up much anymore and I haven't staggered 7km home because I ran out of money to pay for the taxi.
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  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    My skin folds have gone up since I stopped clubbing and pubbing. I don't throw up much anymore and I haven't staggered 7km home because I ran out of money to pay for the taxi.
    Is this you or should there be quotation marks around the statement?

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