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  1. #21
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    Outstanding write-up Rowsus, undisputed king of stats and analysis.

    In your last few posts I think you've surfaced an important point that I will try (as PC said however... extremely difficult to do) to follow this year: take a different path!

    I think part of the follow the crowd syndrome is induced by the term "keeper". It kind of implies that certain players should not leave your team when in reality, in any given week of supercoach, all players in your team are either priced above/below/at what they will score for the rest of the year. Priced too high - sell, sell, sell (unless it's Dangerfield)!!!

    My favourite examples from 2017 where I held "keepers" (but could have made a case to move them on):
    Dahlhaus - $585k by R7 averaging 110. Priced at 117 (previous best entire season was 104). Was he ever going to maintain that as a small mid/half forward? You could have traded him to Dustin Martin for a 50k profit instead

    Nank - $484k by R7 averaging 105, $120k profit so far. Priced at 97 but has just been towelled up by Sauce at Adelaide Oval and is suspended for 1 match. I remember Rowsus predicting a return to the mean for Nank but I was too busy trading rookies in and out to see the opportunity here - an overpriced player who has made a profit and is ready to move on!


    So in 2018 I'll probably finish with my worst rank ever, but I'm going to walk a very different path to get there
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  2. #22
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    Great write-up Rowsus. Some really good stuff in there.

    It is worth noting however regarding Josh J Kennedy that at the moment he is questionable to even play round 1, After ankle surgery in the off-season... He hasn't trained at all and is only walking laps at the moment at the end of January!! So I personally will not be going near him. The Eagles will be careful with him and if he does make it to round 1, I don't think there is any chance at all of dominating the early rounds after missing nearly the entire pre-season.
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  3. #23
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    Two Gold Coast players that could pile on early are both forward eligible - Lynch and Barlow. If Barlow is fit and leading the young mids, he has the capacity to average 115+ over a 3-5 week period. Has averaged 110 before and prone to very large scores.
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  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jurn Stern View Post
    Two Gold Coast players that could pile on early are both forward eligible - Lynch and Barlow. If Barlow is fit and leading the young mids, he has the capacity to average 115+ over a 3-5 week period. Has averaged 110 before and prone to very large scores.
    Barlow is currently in my team, but more with intention of holding him. If he gets to a silly price however, I'd certainly be open to trading him out, and cashing in.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lost In The Sky View Post
    Great write-up Rowsus. Some really good stuff in there.

    It is worth noting however regarding Josh J Kennedy that at the moment he is questionable to even play round 1, After ankle surgery in the off-season... He hasn't trained at all and is only walking laps at the moment at the end of January!! So I personally will not be going near him. The Eagles will be careful with him and if he does make it to round 1, I don't think there is any chance at all of dominating the early rounds after missing nearly the entire pre-season.
    Not great news for the Eagles but could be good news for us super coaches. A few down weeks early could have him ripe for the pickings for an early upgrade.
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  6. #26
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    Very worthwhile read! Thank you for this, I've got no doubt that I'll read it a few more times over the preseason.

    I was already reflecting on my own "sour trade" of Higgins to Lynch last season which was made almost as you described it, no real plan, just a spur of the moment decision. I've had better outcomes when I have actually planned the trade, eg: Libba in 2016 was always one I planned to trade out at his bye. Wells/Sandi out at first sign of trouble. All worked out perfectly in the end (with a bit of fortune too).

    This season I've been secretly looking at Gaz himself for this sort of path of difference maneuver (more in the Nick Riewoldt 2014 mold). We all know of his troubles staying on the field and likelihood to finish on <17 games for the season. However, his scoring potential is huge. Although we have a lot of mids capable of ~110 this season, we haven't got any clear options capable of 120-125+. I'm hoping he has a good run til his bye at which point I have enough data to swap him to a more reliable pick (as there are so many viable mid options this season I can't be sure at this stage). Thought this strategy was somewhat silly but the path of difference type maneuver might somewhat justify it!
    Still a lot of water to go under the bridge but it has me excited!
    Supercoach: 3775 (2017) 530 (2016) 1858 (2014) 805 (2013) 4220 (2011) 574 (2010) Real Dreamteam: 74 (2017) 1225 (2016) 335 (2015) 518 (2014)

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bomber18 View Post
    Very worthwhile read! Thank you for this, I've got no doubt that I'll read it a few more times over the preseason.

    I was already reflecting on my own "sour trade" of Higgins to Lynch last season which was made almost as you described it, no real plan, just a spur of the moment decision. I've had better outcomes when I have actually planned the trade, eg: Libba in 2016 was always one I planned to trade out at his bye. Wells/Sandi out at first sign of trouble. All worked out perfectly in the end (with a bit of fortune too).

    This season I've been secretly looking at Gaz himself for this sort of path of difference maneuver (more in the Nick Riewoldt 2014 mold). We all know of his troubles staying on the field and likelihood to finish on <17 games for the season. However, his scoring potential is huge. Although we have a lot of mids capable of ~110 this season, we haven't got any clear options capable of 120-125+. I'm hoping he has a good run til his bye at which point I have enough data to swap him to a more reliable pick (as there are so many viable mid options this season I can't be sure at this stage). Thought this strategy was somewhat silly but the path of difference type maneuver might somewhat justify it!
    Still a lot of water to go under the bridge but it has me excited!
    Gaz's price really worries me - not much margin for error there. If he was $100k cheaper, I think I would possibly consider picking him as part of this type of Strategy, but I guess at that price there would be lots of other Coach's willing to do the same thing and therefore it wouldn't be a POD...

    It's funny, I started to write this comment with a view to disagreeing with your suggestion, but as I think about it further (and in the spirit of this being a POD thread) I am coming around to your way of thinking. Gaz's ownership is low (6.3%) and will probably stay low due to his price so putting him in your starting team will be a POD move. You are probably not going to see much price rise, but could benefit from stronger potential scoring. You just need to assess whether it is a POD for POD's sake and whether the upside potential is better than if you took a $550k mid and used the spare $80 -$100k efficiently. If he gets injured, then you should have enough cash to trade to any number of other premo's.

    I'm not sure that this would be a move that I would make, but I hope it goes well for you if you go down that path
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  8. #28
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    Not minding the look of Dixon tbh, he'll most certainly be a POD and the analysis of their early draw certainly gets me excited. Only downside is his price, if he was about about 20k-30k cheaper I'd have him locked in my team with this sorta thinking in mind. But it'll probably be hard to justify picking him over spending 10k extra and running with a Billings.

    Thanks for the content tho! Excellent read as always tho Rowsus
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      Quote Quote

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Barlow is currently in my team, but more with intention of holding him. If he gets to a silly price however, I'd certainly be open to trading him out, and cashing in.
    Interesting. Another could be Gray. Had a few enormous scores last year.
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  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lost In The Sky View Post
    Great write-up Rowsus. Some really good stuff in there.

    It is worth noting however regarding Josh J Kennedy that at the moment he is questionable to even play round 1, After ankle surgery in the off-season... He hasn't trained at all and is only walking laps at the moment at the end of January!! So I personally will not be going near him. The Eagles will be careful with him and if he does make it to round 1, I don't think there is any chance at all of dominating the early rounds after missing nearly the entire pre-season.
    Thanks for the update, LITS. I had no idea that's where JJK was at. It's good to know we can cross him off our potential starters list, helping us narrow down the field a little.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bomber18 View Post
    Very worthwhile read! Thank you for this, I've got no doubt that I'll read it a few more times over the preseason.

    I was already reflecting on my own "sour trade" of Higgins to Lynch last season which was made almost as you described it, no real plan, just a spur of the moment decision. I've had better outcomes when I have actually planned the trade, eg: Libba in 2016 was always one I planned to trade out at his bye. Wells/Sandi out at first sign of trouble. All worked out perfectly in the end (with a bit of fortune too).

    This season I've been secretly looking at Gaz himself for this sort of path of difference maneuver (more in the Nick Riewoldt 2014 mold). We all know of his troubles staying on the field and likelihood to finish on <17 games for the season. However, his scoring potential is huge. Although we have a lot of mids capable of ~110 this season, we haven't got any clear options capable of 120-125+. I'm hoping he has a good run til his bye at which point I have enough data to swap him to a more reliable pick (as there are so many viable mid options this season I can't be sure at this stage). Thought this strategy was somewhat silly but the path of difference type maneuver might somewhat justify it!
    Still a lot of water to go under the bridge but it has me excited!
    There's one key difference between trying it with Gaz, and the Riewoldt situation.
    Riewoldt played on, so those that had him likely held him, a least until they completed their team. Anyone who traded him at that optimum moment was getting the double gain of getting a better performing player, while there were many stuck with an underperforming Premium in Riewoldt.
    While it's not impossible, it's unlikely Gaz will become a 20-30/game underperformer, the bigger problem is staying on the park. That's why it's not comparing apples with apples, as most will probably dump Ablett if/when the trouble hits, but not many, if any, dumped Riewoldt. You'd be making a popular (and correct) decision, which means your path would not be that different to a large percentage of other Ablett owners.

    In a totally ideal situation, which rarely gets to happen, you'd be trading out a player, that masses are trading in, in that same week! That's very unlikely with Ablett.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jurn Stern View Post
    Interesting. Another could be Gray. Had a few enormous scores last year.
    Gray is a potential candidate for this sort of move. He certainly has the scoring range to make him worth considering, both high and low. The problem is, reports have him looking pretty skinny after his medical treatment. There seems to be a big question mark over whether he is worth the risk of starting in Round 1, let alone if he'll play Round 1.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  13. #33
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    I wonder if this whole thread is a ruse to get people to trade out overperforming premiums, making them a pod for Rowsus to jump on :P.
    SuperCoach:  79 (2016)  7k (2015)  55k (2013)  7k (2012)  10k (2011)  33k (2010) 

    Maybe this is the year...

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by bomberboy View Post
    I wonder if this whole thread is a ruse to get people to trade out overperforming premiums, making them a pod for Rowsus to jump on :P.
    1. I'm not that clever.
    2. If enough people did trade out over performing Prems, at least one of those people will do better than me jumping onto that Prem.
    3. I very VERY rarely trade in over performing Prems, as they are always over priced!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    1. I'm not that clever.
    2. If enough people did trade out over performing Prems, at least one of those people will do better than me jumping onto that Prem.
    3. I very VERY rarely trade in over performing Prems, as they are always over priced!
    Tongue was firmly in cheek.
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    Maybe this is the year...

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by bomberboy View Post
    Tongue was firmly in cheek.
    I know
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  17. #37
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    Great summary and detail Rowsus.

    I am considering Ben Brown as a candidate. He will be a 4th year player. Last season scored a 27 against collingwood when he was KO'd and then played poorly the following two weeks which probably affected his average by 3- 4 points.

    As far as I am aware he has completed a full pre season so far and this is a first. The last two seasons he has been in a race against time to play round one and had basically no pre season.
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  18. #38
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    I wonder if the same concept could be applied to a ruckman... I have thought about a pinch hitter ruck, before jumping to Ryder post round 10. Something worth pondering...
    SuperCoach:  79 (2016)  7k (2015)  55k (2013)  7k (2012)  10k (2011)  33k (2010) 

    Maybe this is the year...

  19. #39
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    I've had Daniher on my list since the end of last season. Whether I follow through with it, I'm not sure, but having been to training a few times hasn't dissuaded me that this is the year he truly breaks out. Will have to assess the other 'necessary' risks in my team before I finally decide.
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  20. #40
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    I only lurk in this forum to read your stats posts, Rowsus.

    Brilliant work once again.
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