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  1. #81
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    0 Not allowed!

    There could be $170k between Gawn and Ryder in rnd 11?
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    I miss the old colours.

  2. #82
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    2 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by freowho View Post
    There could be $170k between Gawn and Ryder in rnd 11?
    Are you sure you don't have a secret spy in the Moderator's area?

    I actually floated this exact idea 2 days ago, and IDIG, THCLT and I have been discussing it at length.
    I think, depending on the fitness of Ryder, and what happens score-wise between now and then, it is something I am a 90% chance of doing.
    During our discussion, IDIG expressed a thought, that it was a pretty ballsy move. I countered by saying, it was actually extremely sensible.
    Would I recommend it for those right up the pointy end? Probably not, though that could depend on what transpires between then and now.
    Would I recommend it to anyone who feels they are going to struggle to fill a decent final 22, without having some poor underperformers at D/F6 or M7/8? The answer to that is, they'd be crazy not to do it (once again, depending on what happens between here and now.)!

    I created an imaginary scenario to detail to IDIG how the situation might pan out. It is slightly oversimplistic, but gets the message across.
    These are the posts I made in our "secret" Moderators area to show IDIG just how sensible it is.
    I was actually planning a thread on it, closer to the time, but seeing as you have already let the cat out of the bag, here are those 5 posts .......
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  3. #83
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    1 Not allowed!

    It's not as crazy as it sounds.
    Let's look at a microcosm. You and friend have identical 8 man teams, where there are 5 on the field, and 3 on the bench. You both have been stuck with a couple of deadwood Rookies.

    Your teams look like this:



    For the purpose of the exercise, let's freeze the pricing and the scoring for now.
    You are both scoring 371/round, and only have Brayshaw as a non-deadwood Rookie.
    Last edited by Rowsus; 16-05-2018 at 12:25am.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  4. #84
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    1 Not allowed!

    You go one up, one down Doedee/Holman to Simpson/Phillips
    He goes Gawn/Doedee to Ryder/Simpson



    You outscore him by 18 points in Round 9

    Advantage IDIG by 18 points.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  5. #85
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    1 Not allowed!

    Round 10:
    IDIG goes Fritsch/Brayshaw to Mundy/Ainsworth
    Friend goes Holman/Fritsch to Phillips/Mundy



    You outscore him by 13 points

    Advantage IDIG by 31 points.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  6. #86
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    2 Not allowed!

    Round 11 comes along. The teams only have 2 different players.

    IDIG has Gawn/Ainsworth
    Friend has Ryder/Brayshaw.

    IDIG has run out of fat cows and cash, and doesn't trade.
    Friend goes Stephenson/Brayshaw to Parker/Ainsworth.



    Friend outscores IDIG by 24 points.

    Advantage IDIG by 7 points.

    IDIG has 2 extra trades, but no viable use, as he has no cashcows.
    Friend has 2 less trades, and also has no cash cows.

    They both ride the season out, with the only differences in their 2 two teams being:

    IDIG: Gawn and Stephenson - worth 181/Round

    Friend: Ryder and Parker - worth 205/Round

    12 weeks later, the season ends, and the friend has outscored IDIG by 281 points.

    It seems illogical, but it's maximising your assets.

    At $670k Gawn is an asset that needs to score at 130/week. Unlikely to keep happening, so turning him, and your weakest onfield Keeper into Ryder and a better onfield Keeper actually gains you quite a bit.

    In the example, Parker only needs to outscore Stephenson by 16/Round for your friend to beat you. Even if Gawn can go 125/week, Parker only needs to outscore Stephenson by 23/Round to beat you.

    It's really not as crazy, or as gutsy as it sounds. If you are struggling to finish your team, and will end up with Dodgey F/D 6's or M7/8's, it's actually quite sensible, as it gives you a "free" fat cow over those that hold Gawn.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  7. #87
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    0 Not allowed!

    I definitely wouldn't overpay on Ronke. You need to look at what you think he can average from here, and also there is a JS factor to consider, even though he is probably safe for 2 weeks at least.

    He plays a small Forward role, and amassed 7 goals and 10 tackles in a Forward line devoid of any tall players. Once Sydney gets its' preferred structure back, you'd really expect him to go back to "normal" small Forward Rookie scoring of around 65, especially with opposition Coaches keeping an eye on him now! That would have him heading to topping out just over $300k, even with the massive price jumps last week, and this week. Remember, it only takes one bad 30 or 40 to undo last weeks score! Even if he can average 70, he only makes $120k from here. I think it's a mistake to take him now.

    By my figuring, it is going to take approximately 12 Rookies to make 5 upgrades from here. 7 down 5 up, as some of the quality of the downs won't be quite what we hoped.
    That creates two cans of worms.
    1) Finding 7 Rookies we are happy to downgrade to.
    2) The JS of those Rookies means we are likely to be sitting on a lottery of JS Rookies on our bench, really watering down potential cover.

    5 Upgrades would get most teams complete, or near complete. That pushes 6 or 7 of those Rookies to your bench. We only have 8 bench spots, so in effect, those downgrade Rookies will be pretty much all the cover you have.
    I pretty much have 9 "useful" or hopefully useful Rookies.
    I have L Murphy, Guelfi and will be going English to Crossley this week, so they are all questionable as to if they are useful.
    I, like everyone else, plan to keep T Kelly at M8 as long as possible, hopefully the whole season.

    If Kelly holds up, I need to make 4 upgrades, but I can't assume he does, so it makes potential 5 upgrades, with only currently 9 useful Rookies in my team. We can't assume those we use for Downgrades will make that much cash. All in all, unless something happens, I think I need to do Gawn to Ryder in Round 11!

    edit
    By using Gawn to Ryder as a Cash Cow replacement, you are effectively removing one of the "new" Rookies from your bench, and are able to more deal with a devil you know, than one you don't!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  8. #88
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    3 Not allowed!

    Some might think Macrae is also candidate for this sort of move, as he too is overpriced to what he is likely to produce from here.
    The biggest problem with doing it with Macrae, is that he has a Rnd 12 bye. This means to maximise the affect, you need to trade him to a Port or GC player, otherwise the player your pick also faces a bye. It might only add 60 or 70 points to the equation, but by being able to do it in a "slingshot" manouvre does maximise the return. It's not to say it wouldn't work with Macrae, just to say, that Gawn to Ryder has that little cherry on top, that Ryder replaces whatever Rookie score you would have gotten in Round 13, when Gawn has his bye.
    Last edited by Rowsus; 16-05-2018 at 11:14pm.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  9. #89
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    0 Not allowed!

    Cheers Rowsus.
    I'm getting to a point where Murphy, Barry, Crowden and Guelfi aren't going to give me an upgrade but Gawn to Ryder will. Obviously betting Ryder against Gawn for the rest of the year could go pear shaped but my season went pear shaped in the first 4 weeks anyway so time to have a bit of fun.
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  10. #90
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by bomberboy View Post
    I wonder if the same concept could be applied to a ruckman... I have thought about a pinch hitter ruck, before jumping to Ryder post round 10. Something worth pondering...
    Lycett is doing exactly this in my team. Just hoping there are no major dramas between now and round 11 when I make the trade.
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  11. #91
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by BomberSam View Post
    Lycett is doing exactly this in my team. Just hoping there are no major dramas between now and round 11 when I make the trade.
    Same here.
      Quote Quote

  12. #92
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by BomberSam View Post
    Lycett is doing exactly this in my team. Just hoping there are no major dramas between now and round 11 when I make the trade.
    Quote Originally Posted by ACmonster View Post
    Same here.
    Have Lycett and feels he may have maxed out. Think risk here is he seems to struggle to score against good sides and does better where teams dont have a tall backline such as Bulldogs.

    Has Richmond, Hawks, Saints and Sydney to come.

    Considering Lycett to Grundy.
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  13. #93
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    1 Not allowed!

    Excellent work Rowsus. Tell you what... if I had Macrae I'd be looking at potentially swinging him a Port/GC player when his bye comes up. You could make a truckload of cash (with enough spare to buy him back later when his price comes down). Rockliff anybody ?

    Anyway, Gawn had reached that point when his price is starting to look ridiculous so I love the idea. He has Kreuzer, Sauce, --nobody-- (WBD) and Grundy before his bye. Actually a chance he drops a few $$ before R13 so it might not be as good a trade as it looks right now but certainly something to consider.

    I've got NN as well and might look to swing him up to Gawn or Grundy to ride out the season as he looks a good 10ppg behind them (unles his TOG goes up, in which case he could be the best of the lot).
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  14. #94
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Leroy View Post
    Excellent work Rowsus. Tell you what... if I had Macrae I'd be looking at potentially swinging him a Port/GC player when his bye comes up. You could make a truckload of cash (with enough spare to buy him back later when his price comes down). Rockliff anybody ?

    Anyway, Gawn had reached that point when his price is starting to look ridiculous so I love the idea. He has Kreuzer, Sauce, --nobody-- (WBD) and Grundy before his bye. Actually a chance he drops a few $$ before R13 so it might not be as good a trade as it looks right now but certainly something to consider.

    I've got NN as well and might look to swing him up to Gawn or Grundy to ride out the season as he looks a good 10ppg behind them (unles his TOG goes up, in which case he could be the best of the lot).
    Was thinking about this exact scenario haha
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  15. #95
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    1 Not allowed!

    Wrong thread - oops
    Last edited by Beijing_Sting; 16-05-2018 at 1:03pm.
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  16. #96
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Leroy View Post
    Excellent work Rowsus. Tell you what... if I had Macrae I'd be looking at potentially swinging him a Port/GC player when his bye comes up. You could make a truckload of cash (with enough spare to buy him back later when his price comes down). Rockliff anybody ?

    Anyway, Gawn had reached that point when his price is starting to look ridiculous so I love the idea. He has Kreuzer, Sauce, --nobody-- (WBD) and Grundy before his bye. Actually a chance he drops a few $$ before R13 so it might not be as good a trade as it looks right now but certainly something to consider.

    I've got NN as well and might look to swing him up to Gawn or Grundy to ride out the season as he looks a good 10ppg behind them (unles his TOG goes up, in which case he could be the best of the lot).
    The trick is to do it Round 11, not 13. Round 11 should see Ryder at his lowest price, and hasn't given Gawn much opportunity to drop in price. We need as big a cash injection as possible, if it is going to work.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  17. #97
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    The trick is to do it Round 11, not 13. Round 11 should see Ryder at his lowest price, and hasn't given Gawn much opportunity to drop in price. We need as big a cash injection as possible, if it is going to work.
    Ah yes good point, had missed that when reading over everything above... just assumed the trade out before the bye but R11 makes much more sense.
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  18. #98
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    0 Not allowed!

    Gawn > S McKernan. Hold until rd 13 bye, S McKernan to rd 12 in form RUC? (N Naitanui/Kreuzer etc)

  19. #99
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    0 Not allowed!

    Thanks Rowsus for your amazing post, I tried to do this by starting Dixon and hoping to turn him into Danger in Round 10.

    As I hoped Danger fell to almost $ 600,000.00 unfortunately Dixon after 2 tons to start the season fell $ 127,300 instead of going the other way.

    Well never know if this would have turned out successful IF Ryder was not injured and Charlie was playing Ruck more often, having said that though Charlie seems to have lost confidence in his contested marking ability and kicking for goal.

    It was a worthwhile exercise to try.
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  20. #100
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Some might think Macrae is also candidate for this sort of move, as he too is overpriced to what he is likely to produce from here.
    The biggest problem with doing it with Macrae, is that he has a Rnd 12 bye. This means to maximise the affect, you need to trade him to a Port or GC player, otherwise the player your pick also faces a bye. It might only add 60 or 70 points to the equation, but by being able to do it in a "slingshot" manouvre does maximise the return. It's not to say it wouldn't work with Macrae, just to say, that Gawn to Ryder has that little cherry on top, that Ryder replaces whatever Rookie score you would have gotten in Round 13, when Gawn has his bye.
    The ultimate move is to trade Macrae to Rockliff. Imagine if Rocky averages within 5 or even 10ppg of Macrae from here on, and you bank over 350k.
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