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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Hey bb,
    there's no doubt each season is a little different. The general principles in this thread will stand the test of time, and hold you in good stead through many seasons, I would think. Last season was the season of the Midpricer, and underperforming Prem, no doubt. Was it just a changing of the guard? We can't be sure.
    The general principles in this thread are more referring to thinking once the season has started, but there's no doubt, some of it is applicable to pre-season Round 1 team selecting too.
    Just remember, there are many more potential break out candidates, than there are genuine Prems, fallen or otherwise, that's why the break outs are so tricky to isolate!
    Agreed, this is a thread I will try and read weekly, lest I end up with Shaun Higgins and Ollie Wines in my team again...

    The breakouts are like mirages... So tempting, but which ones are real? I guess that's the 50k question!
    SuperCoach:  79 (2016)  7k (2015)  55k (2013)  7k (2012)  10k (2011)  33k (2010) 

    Maybe this is the year...

  2. #42
    Draftee
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    Fantastic thread - new to this site and these threads are pure gold! Many thanks for putting this together.
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  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew View Post
    Wow Rowan an amazing read as always, so much work, many thanks!

    A couple of questions in relation, do you have average ranges you consider minimums for starting keepers?

    For example I liked your comments on Dahlhaus and he's currently in my starting squad. He averaged 90.7 last season which was the lowest average in his last four seasons and personally I think this is probably around the bottom end to expect from him, he seems to throw up some bottom end spud scores but he also seems to have a big-ish top end to even things out. I'm picking him to bounce back a bit for a season average in the 93-96 range but I also feel that if he goes at 90.7 again he could be considered a successful keeper holding out F5/F6 for year, or am I aiming to low? My feeling is for the forward line I should be aiming for F1: 105+, F2-F4: 95-105, F5/F6: 89+.

    Thanks for your time again - Drew.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Thanks, Drew.
    There are shifts each year in what is "acceptable" and what isn't.
    Last season there were 11 Forwards that played at least 18 games, and averaged better than 90.
    Wingard went 18/93, but that PIT60's out to an 87 average. While you'd possibly wear that for your F6, depending on your circumstances, in general it's just below what we should be shooting for.
    It's hard to know what this years levels might turn out to be. Your F1 looks ok, but 105 for a F4 might be too much. If you are going to settle for 89 for your F5/6 you probably want at least 21 games from them, otherwise, to build in a buffer, you want to boost that to 93-94 maybe, giving them a 2 or 3 game buffer.
    As I said, each year is different, but your close to what I'm thinking at this stage of things.
    Drew - you may find this excellent thread from Bomber to be helpful for benchmarking purposes:

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...925#post380925
    SuperCoach:  20937 (2017)  589 (2016)  3225 (2015)  8243 (2014)  AFL Dream Team:  226 (2017)  397 (2016) 


  4. #44
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    Some excellent work here Row.

    One question for you: is this the formalisation of something you've been thinking in a less formal way for some time, or have you actually applied it in season, and made decisions on this basis (and if so, for how long?)?
    SuperCoach:  20937 (2017)  589 (2016)  3225 (2015)  8243 (2014)  AFL Dream Team:  226 (2017)  397 (2016) 


  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Drew - you may find this excellent thread from Bomber to be helpful for benchmarking purposes:

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...925#post380925
    Good points, thanks Darkie.
    Go Crows!

  6. #46
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    Phenomenal piece of writing and analysis Rowsus. Thank you for sharing.
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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Some excellent work here Row.

    One question for you: is this the formalisation of something you've been thinking in a less formal way for some time, or have you actually applied it in season, and made decisions on this basis (and if so, for how long?)?
    Thanks Darkie,
    I've used a slightly different, but based on the same principles, system the past 2 seasons. When trying to decide the best way to present what I was thinking, I happened across this in my thinking, and as complicated as it might look to some, it is more structured and neater to present, than what I have been using.
    I will admit, I still get sucked into the odd FOMO trade, and in fact, I held my guns until about Round 15 or 16 last season, then around 4 of my last 6 trades were terrible, and probably not coincidentally, were the first trades I made out of the mold/plan I was trying to use. Around that same time, my Rank started to decline from 644th, until the end of the season I was just inside the top 5,000. I will never know how it would have finished, if I had just stuck to my guns. Maybe top 1,500.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  8. #48
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    Remember a similar thread you wrote last year Rowsus around 100 game players having established scoring patterns. Avoided all the fancy breakout players talked about in round 1 due to that (thanks!).

    Went in with a thin defence which turned out ok initially but first upgrades needed to be here - going for league - guess who picked - Jake Lloyd and Roberton!

    Pained me as there was no established players I had confidence selecting. Assumed Roberton had a role change. Also didnt count his games - 102!!!! When I finally saw Lloyd on TV I thought he was too thin and may not sustain his scoring level as he relied on the easy outside ball (which tends to be shut down in 2H of the season).

    I did try to warn people away from paying top dollars for Sloane using this theory.

    I feel more comfortable buying the premium in Franklin/Sloane after they have a few poor games as they run high Std deviation, however, the hard call is the premium having a poor season such as JPK or Gray who never recover.

    The other interesting point is everyone is now jumping on Kelly and Crouch (both Matt and Brad despite latter injury history) despite they have not played 100 games to have established their scoring pattern.

    I find this view has helped my game from my intial starting point, and avoiding many hot streak players. It is the during the season though when needing to upgrade, established players are not delivering, avoiding KPP and players like Jake Lloyd and Roberton end up in my back line - this is where I need to continue to work on my game.

    Thanks for all the analysis.
    SuperCoach:  2278 (2017)  3226 (2016)  5131 (2015)  4659 (2014)  2239 (2013)  7500 (2012) 

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  9. #49
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    Well this late discussion pushed me to read the thread thoroughly from the start again and I’m glad I did.

    Geez, I’d hate to think how many FOMO trades I’ve made over the years and hardly any work out. You wonder where those big scores have gone without realising he’d used up a lot of his quota already. Last years for me was Rocky mid season. His injury contributed granted but that didn’t change the fact that I was in full blown FOMO panic when I bought him st $600k plus.

    Another example is Dusty who I avoided after a couple of early lower scores again not thinking through that he’d used up some of his season quota of low scores and so he should have been snaffled up there and then.

    This is a really great piece of work. Your effort and thoroughness always impresses me well done Rowsus
    SuperCoach:  2252 (2017)  1238 (2016)  3623 (2015)  737 (2014)  2166 (2013)  15055 (2012)  3207 (2011)  3009 (2010)  356 (2009) 

      Quote Quote

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Thanks Darkie,
    I've used a slightly different, but based on the same principles, system the past 2 seasons. When trying to decide the best way to present what I was thinking, I happened across this in my thinking, and as complicated as it might look to some, it is more structured and neater to present, than what I have been using.
    I will admit, I still get sucked into the odd FOMO trade, and in fact, I held my guns until about Round 15 or 16 last season, then around 4 of my last 6 trades were terrible, and probably not coincidentally, were the first trades I made out of the mold/plan I was trying to use. Around that same time, my Rank started to decline from 644th, until the end of the season I was just inside the top 5,000. I will never know how it would have finished, if I had just stuck to my guns. Maybe top 1,500.
    Thanks for clarifying, that’s good to hear. My recollection was that 2017 had been a very good year for you (which it sounds like it was while you stuck to your guns!), I was wondering whether the two were linked. Hopefully it serves you well again this year - and it sounds like it should be somewhat easier to stay the course with the benefit of your experience in 2017.

    Well done again, I intend to return to this thread as you suggested.
    SuperCoach:  20937 (2017)  589 (2016)  3225 (2015)  8243 (2014)  AFL Dream Team:  226 (2017)  397 (2016) 


  11. #51
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    Apologies to everyone for the distraction caused in the past 24 hours.

    Normal service has now resumed.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  12. #52
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    I've read through this one again mate and the main thing I can't get my head around is the redistribution of the higher scores into bottom brackets, does this not skew the expectation somewhat? Numbers aren't one of my strongest points so perhaps I'm just missing something.

    Edit: Just for interest sake, I think running this analysis on select players during the season would make a very interesting thread, do you have any plans to do it?
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  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    I've read through this one again mate and the main thing I can't get my head around is the redistribution of the higher scores into bottom brackets, does this not skew the expectation somewhat? Numbers aren't one of my strongest points so perhaps I'm just missing something.

    Edit: Just for interest sake, I think running this analysis on select players during the season would make a very interesting thread, do you have any plans to do it?
    Hi mate, I could be very wrong here but I think that’s where the ‘adjustment’ of the average comes into play after moving the score (if I understand correctly), giving you a new expectation.
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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    I've read through this one again mate and the main thing I can't get my head around is the redistribution of the higher scores into bottom brackets, does this not skew the expectation somewhat? Numbers aren't one of my strongest points so perhaps I'm just missing something.
    Quote Originally Posted by 30BucketsofRo View Post
    Hi mate, I could be very wrong here but I think that’s where the ‘adjustment’ of the average comes into play after moving the score (if I understand correctly), giving you a new expectation.
    Rowsus can probably give a much better explanation than this, but the way I understand it is, by moving a score (say 120) to "fill in" a lower bracket you're effectively saying: I thought this player would average 95, but they've scored one more big score than usual for a player of that range. So I'll assume they scored the big score instead of a lower one as a mark of improvement and adjust my expectation accordingly.
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  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    I've read through this one again mate and the main thing I can't get my head around is the redistribution of the higher scores into bottom brackets, does this not skew the expectation somewhat? Numbers aren't one of my strongest points so perhaps I'm just missing something.
    Quote Originally Posted by 30BucketsofRo View Post
    Hi mate, I could be very wrong here but I think that’s where the ‘adjustment’ of the average comes into play after moving the score (if I understand correctly), giving you a new expectation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Leroy View Post
    Rowsus can probably give a much better explanation than this, but the way I understand it is, by moving a score (say 120) to "fill in" a lower bracket you're effectively saying: I thought this player would average 95, but they've scored one more big score than usual for a player of that range. So I'll assume they scored the big score instead of a lower one as a mark of improvement and adjust my expectation accordingly.
    Sorry for the delay in answering. I've been trying to think of another example I could use to explain, but everything I came up with had set average returns. ie rolling a dice a number of times will be expected to average 3.5/roll. Even if you roll 5 sixes in a row, if you know the dice is fair, it should still average 3.5 from there. Set average returns aren't good examples to explain this.
    Keep in mind, the movement can happen in both directions. A small score can move forward into the place of a larger score, or a larger score can go back to in place of a smaller score. Leroy is right, when you get too many in one area, you shift a score to an area that hasn't had as many as it statistically might. This ends up with an adjustment in your expectation, as if you have a 120 in a column that reads 75-85 with an expected average of 80, then you have effectively put 40 more points in that column than rightfully should be there, so you adjust your season total expectation up by 40. Similarly, if you place a 60 into a column that reads 110-120, with an expectation of 115, you have placed a value in there that is 55 lower than expected, so you adjust your season total expectation down 55.
    You only make these shifts if one end or the other is getting too many hits, and if that is happening you need to adjust your expectation. If the middle 2 columns get too many hits you just wear it, as they are right in the expected areas anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    Just for interest sake, I think running this analysis on select players during the season would make a very interesting thread, do you have any plans to do it?
    When time permits I will. I won't be following certain players, but looking for SC relevant players that might look like they are getting a bit extreme in the adjustments needed.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

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