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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Hey bb,
    there's no doubt each season is a little different. The general principles in this thread will stand the test of time, and hold you in good stead through many seasons, I would think. Last season was the season of the Midpricer, and underperforming Prem, no doubt. Was it just a changing of the guard? We can't be sure.
    The general principles in this thread are more referring to thinking once the season has started, but there's no doubt, some of it is applicable to pre-season Round 1 team selecting too.
    Just remember, there are many more potential break out candidates, than there are genuine Prems, fallen or otherwise, that's why the break outs are so tricky to isolate!
    Agreed, this is a thread I will try and read weekly, lest I end up with Shaun Higgins and Ollie Wines in my team again...

    The breakouts are like mirages... So tempting, but which ones are real? I guess that's the 50k question!
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    Maybe this is the year...

  2. #42
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    Fantastic thread - new to this site and these threads are pure gold! Many thanks for putting this together.
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  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew View Post
    Wow Rowan an amazing read as always, so much work, many thanks!

    A couple of questions in relation, do you have average ranges you consider minimums for starting keepers?

    For example I liked your comments on Dahlhaus and he's currently in my starting squad. He averaged 90.7 last season which was the lowest average in his last four seasons and personally I think this is probably around the bottom end to expect from him, he seems to throw up some bottom end spud scores but he also seems to have a big-ish top end to even things out. I'm picking him to bounce back a bit for a season average in the 93-96 range but I also feel that if he goes at 90.7 again he could be considered a successful keeper holding out F5/F6 for year, or am I aiming to low? My feeling is for the forward line I should be aiming for F1: 105+, F2-F4: 95-105, F5/F6: 89+.

    Thanks for your time again - Drew.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Thanks, Drew.
    There are shifts each year in what is "acceptable" and what isn't.
    Last season there were 11 Forwards that played at least 18 games, and averaged better than 90.
    Wingard went 18/93, but that PIT60's out to an 87 average. While you'd possibly wear that for your F6, depending on your circumstances, in general it's just below what we should be shooting for.
    It's hard to know what this years levels might turn out to be. Your F1 looks ok, but 105 for a F4 might be too much. If you are going to settle for 89 for your F5/6 you probably want at least 21 games from them, otherwise, to build in a buffer, you want to boost that to 93-94 maybe, giving them a 2 or 3 game buffer.
    As I said, each year is different, but your close to what I'm thinking at this stage of things.
    Drew - you may find this excellent thread from Bomber to be helpful for benchmarking purposes:

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...925#post380925
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  4. #44
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    Some excellent work here Row.

    One question for you: is this the formalisation of something you've been thinking in a less formal way for some time, or have you actually applied it in season, and made decisions on this basis (and if so, for how long?)?
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  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Drew - you may find this excellent thread from Bomber to be helpful for benchmarking purposes:

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/thre...925#post380925
    Good points, thanks Darkie.
    Go Crows!

  6. #46
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    Phenomenal piece of writing and analysis Rowsus. Thank you for sharing.
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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    Some excellent work here Row.

    One question for you: is this the formalisation of something you've been thinking in a less formal way for some time, or have you actually applied it in season, and made decisions on this basis (and if so, for how long?)?
    Thanks Darkie,
    I've used a slightly different, but based on the same principles, system the past 2 seasons. When trying to decide the best way to present what I was thinking, I happened across this in my thinking, and as complicated as it might look to some, it is more structured and neater to present, than what I have been using.
    I will admit, I still get sucked into the odd FOMO trade, and in fact, I held my guns until about Round 15 or 16 last season, then around 4 of my last 6 trades were terrible, and probably not coincidentally, were the first trades I made out of the mold/plan I was trying to use. Around that same time, my Rank started to decline from 644th, until the end of the season I was just inside the top 5,000. I will never know how it would have finished, if I had just stuck to my guns. Maybe top 1,500.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  8. #48
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    Remember a similar thread you wrote last year Rowsus around 100 game players having established scoring patterns. Avoided all the fancy breakout players talked about in round 1 due to that (thanks!).

    Went in with a thin defence which turned out ok initially but first upgrades needed to be here - going for league - guess who picked - Jake Lloyd and Roberton!

    Pained me as there was no established players I had confidence selecting. Assumed Roberton had a role change. Also didnt count his games - 102!!!! When I finally saw Lloyd on TV I thought he was too thin and may not sustain his scoring level as he relied on the easy outside ball (which tends to be shut down in 2H of the season).

    I did try to warn people away from paying top dollars for Sloane using this theory.

    I feel more comfortable buying the premium in Franklin/Sloane after they have a few poor games as they run high Std deviation, however, the hard call is the premium having a poor season such as JPK or Gray who never recover.

    The other interesting point is everyone is now jumping on Kelly and Crouch (both Matt and Brad despite latter injury history) despite they have not played 100 games to have established their scoring pattern.

    I find this view has helped my game from my intial starting point, and avoiding many hot streak players. It is the during the season though when needing to upgrade, established players are not delivering, avoiding KPP and players like Jake Lloyd and Roberton end up in my back line - this is where I need to continue to work on my game.

    Thanks for all the analysis.
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  9. #49
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    Well this late discussion pushed me to read the thread thoroughly from the start again and I’m glad I did.

    Geez, I’d hate to think how many FOMO trades I’ve made over the years and hardly any work out. You wonder where those big scores have gone without realising he’d used up a lot of his quota already. Last years for me was Rocky mid season. His injury contributed granted but that didn’t change the fact that I was in full blown FOMO panic when I bought him st $600k plus.

    Another example is Dusty who I avoided after a couple of early lower scores again not thinking through that he’d used up some of his season quota of low scores and so he should have been snaffled up there and then.

    This is a really great piece of work. Your effort and thoroughness always impresses me well done Rowsus
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  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Thanks Darkie,
    I've used a slightly different, but based on the same principles, system the past 2 seasons. When trying to decide the best way to present what I was thinking, I happened across this in my thinking, and as complicated as it might look to some, it is more structured and neater to present, than what I have been using.
    I will admit, I still get sucked into the odd FOMO trade, and in fact, I held my guns until about Round 15 or 16 last season, then around 4 of my last 6 trades were terrible, and probably not coincidentally, were the first trades I made out of the mold/plan I was trying to use. Around that same time, my Rank started to decline from 644th, until the end of the season I was just inside the top 5,000. I will never know how it would have finished, if I had just stuck to my guns. Maybe top 1,500.
    Thanks for clarifying, that’s good to hear. My recollection was that 2017 had been a very good year for you (which it sounds like it was while you stuck to your guns!), I was wondering whether the two were linked. Hopefully it serves you well again this year - and it sounds like it should be somewhat easier to stay the course with the benefit of your experience in 2017.

    Well done again, I intend to return to this thread as you suggested.
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  11. #51
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    Apologies to everyone for the distraction caused in the past 24 hours.

    Normal service has now resumed.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  12. #52
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    I've read through this one again mate and the main thing I can't get my head around is the redistribution of the higher scores into bottom brackets, does this not skew the expectation somewhat? Numbers aren't one of my strongest points so perhaps I'm just missing something.

    Edit: Just for interest sake, I think running this analysis on select players during the season would make a very interesting thread, do you have any plans to do it?
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  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    I've read through this one again mate and the main thing I can't get my head around is the redistribution of the higher scores into bottom brackets, does this not skew the expectation somewhat? Numbers aren't one of my strongest points so perhaps I'm just missing something.

    Edit: Just for interest sake, I think running this analysis on select players during the season would make a very interesting thread, do you have any plans to do it?
    Hi mate, I could be very wrong here but I think that’s where the ‘adjustment’ of the average comes into play after moving the score (if I understand correctly), giving you a new expectation.
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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    I've read through this one again mate and the main thing I can't get my head around is the redistribution of the higher scores into bottom brackets, does this not skew the expectation somewhat? Numbers aren't one of my strongest points so perhaps I'm just missing something.
    Quote Originally Posted by 30BucketsofRo View Post
    Hi mate, I could be very wrong here but I think that’s where the ‘adjustment’ of the average comes into play after moving the score (if I understand correctly), giving you a new expectation.
    Rowsus can probably give a much better explanation than this, but the way I understand it is, by moving a score (say 120) to "fill in" a lower bracket you're effectively saying: I thought this player would average 95, but they've scored one more big score than usual for a player of that range. So I'll assume they scored the big score instead of a lower one as a mark of improvement and adjust my expectation accordingly.
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  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    I've read through this one again mate and the main thing I can't get my head around is the redistribution of the higher scores into bottom brackets, does this not skew the expectation somewhat? Numbers aren't one of my strongest points so perhaps I'm just missing something.
    Quote Originally Posted by 30BucketsofRo View Post
    Hi mate, I could be very wrong here but I think that’s where the ‘adjustment’ of the average comes into play after moving the score (if I understand correctly), giving you a new expectation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Leroy View Post
    Rowsus can probably give a much better explanation than this, but the way I understand it is, by moving a score (say 120) to "fill in" a lower bracket you're effectively saying: I thought this player would average 95, but they've scored one more big score than usual for a player of that range. So I'll assume they scored the big score instead of a lower one as a mark of improvement and adjust my expectation accordingly.
    Sorry for the delay in answering. I've been trying to think of another example I could use to explain, but everything I came up with had set average returns. ie rolling a dice a number of times will be expected to average 3.5/roll. Even if you roll 5 sixes in a row, if you know the dice is fair, it should still average 3.5 from there. Set average returns aren't good examples to explain this.
    Keep in mind, the movement can happen in both directions. A small score can move forward into the place of a larger score, or a larger score can go back to in place of a smaller score. Leroy is right, when you get too many in one area, you shift a score to an area that hasn't had as many as it statistically might. This ends up with an adjustment in your expectation, as if you have a 120 in a column that reads 75-85 with an expected average of 80, then you have effectively put 40 more points in that column than rightfully should be there, so you adjust your season total expectation up by 40. Similarly, if you place a 60 into a column that reads 110-120, with an expectation of 115, you have placed a value in there that is 55 lower than expected, so you adjust your season total expectation down 55.
    You only make these shifts if one end or the other is getting too many hits, and if that is happening you need to adjust your expectation. If the middle 2 columns get too many hits you just wear it, as they are right in the expected areas anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    Just for interest sake, I think running this analysis on select players during the season would make a very interesting thread, do you have any plans to do it?
    When time permits I will. I won't be following certain players, but looking for SC relevant players that might look like they are getting a bit extreme in the adjustments needed.
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  16. #56
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    Great read Rowsus, really appreciate articulating what exactly an average is - I agree, I think many of us forget that unless it's an external change (new role, new position, etc.) that causes a spike in scoring the first 6 rounds it may be that a player is just getting their good scores out of the way early for the year!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    Players that averaged 90 or 95 from 2011 to 2017

    There were 187 players that fitted the criteria I was looking at, and between them they played 3,471 games for me to analyse, or an average of 18.6 games/season.

    The top part of the table below shows your expectations broken up into percentage ranges. The 3rd line, the average percentage, has actually been calculated off every score in those different ranges, it is just coincidence that they pretty much fell exactly where you'd expect them to. It then shows how many games the player should have in that range (assuming they play 22 games. You'll have to fiddle for yourselves, where expectation is lower than 22 games). The bottom part gives you examples of how that breaks up in scores, depending on what you expect a player to average.
    So if you thought Joe Blog would average 92, then he will typically have:
    3 scores lower than 64
    2 scores between 64-74
    3 scores between 74-83
    3 scores between 83-92
    3 scores between 92-101
    3 scores between 101-110
    2 scores between 110-120
    3 scores greater than 120
    I'm sure many of you will be surprised, that a 92/game player will typically have as many as 5 110+ scores, and that will include 3 120+ scores! Once you realise things like this, you start realise why it is important you don't drastically change your opinion on a player too quickly. Keep in mind, this is not a small sample, it is 187 players, across 3,471 games!
    My question is, have you looked at/considered/thinking about fitting a distributions to the bins or underlying adjusted scores (the percentages I guess?)? The current bin selections make it look not quite normal?

    As a thought, plotting a couple of distributions and plotting them "adjusting" as you term it, may make the post a bit more accessible for those who learning from pictures rather than words?
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  17. #57
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    Think it's an opportune time to give this highly rated thread a bump.
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  18. #58
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    Good to see Lambert getting one of his 0-60's and one of his 70-80's out of the way early
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  19. #59
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    I will be cherry picking players to look at during the season.

    I am going to start with Laird.
    He is currently in 51% of teams, and I have a feeling that half the Coaches that don't have him, are thinking of ways they can restructure their team, to get him in.
    Is this wise thinking, or FOMO thinking?
    Let's look at his table:



    As it says at the bottom of the table, it is structured with a starting expectation of a season average of 101/game. If your expectation was higher than this prior to Round 1, I have to question why he is not already in your team!
    I see no reason to make an adjustment yet. His scores are spread across different brackets, even though all 4 are in the higher scoring end of the table.
    Keep in mind, these tables are subjective. Where I choose to make no adjustment, someone else might think "Laird has filled 2 of his top 4 placings already, I want to shift the 129 back to the 91 - 101 bracket." Not something I'm prepared to do, but you adjust these tables at your own pace, not mine.
    In 2017 Laird had a 6 game streak from Rounds 4 to 9 that went: 112, 121, 122, 100, 124, 110. A 6 game streak of 115 average, with a 4 game streak of 122 in the middle of it. The point of this is, he is currently on a 4 game streak of 123. He's done this before. Look at 2017, and he averaged 100.2. Removing that 6 game streak, and the balance of his season was 16/95.
    After this weeks score his price is going to rise to approximately $573,900, which equates to around 112/game. If you started with him having a season of 22/101, then the remainder of his season 18/96. He's overpriced by around 16/game. Look at it in other terms, at $573,900 he is now priced at around what you are probably hoping to fill 2 or 3 of Midfield spots. Do you really expect him to keep scoring like a Midfielder from here?

    Verdict - Do not trade him. Unless on the back of 4 games information, you are suddenly willing to adjust your expectation up to an unreasonable 110+, it would seem a really poor move to grab him now, or in the next few weeks. Leave that for the hot streak chasers, that make too many FOMO trades each season!

    In 2017 his price fell around $70k around 5 weeks after his hot streak.
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  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    I will be cherry picking players to look at during the season.

    I am going to start with Laird.
    He is currently in 51% of teams, and I have a feeling that half the Coaches that don't have him, are thinking of ways they can restructure their team, to get him in.
    Is this wise thinking, or FOMO thinking?
    Let's look at his table:



    As it says at the bottom of the table, it is structured with a starting expectation of a season average of 101/game. If your expectation was higher than this prior to Round 1, I have to question why he is not already in your team!
    I see no reason to make an adjustment yet. His scores are spread across different brackets, even though all 4 are in the higher scoring end of the table.
    Keep in mind, these tables are subjective. Where I choose to make no adjustment, someone else might think "Laird has filled 2 of his top 4 placings already, I want to shift the 129 back to the 91 - 101 bracket." Not something I'm prepared to do, but you adjust these tables at your own pace, not mine.
    In 2017 Laird had a 6 game streak from Rounds 4 to 9 that went: 112, 121, 122, 100, 124, 110. A 6 game streak of 115 average, with a 4 game streak of 122 in the middle of it. The point of this is, he is currently on a 4 game streak of 123. He's done this before. Look at 2017, and he averaged 100.2. Removing that 6 game streak, and the balance of his season was 16/95.
    After this weeks score his price is going to rise to approximately $573,900, which equates to around 112/game. If you started with him having a season of 22/101, then the remainder of his season 18/96. He's overpriced by around 16/game. Look at it in other terms, at $573,900 he is now priced at around what you are probably hoping to fill 2 or 3 of Midfield spots. Do you really expect him to keep scoring like a Midfielder from here?

    Verdict - Do not trade him. Unless on the back of 4 games information, you are suddenly willing to adjust your expectation up to an unreasonable 110+, it would seem a really poor move to grab him now, or in the next few weeks. Leave that for the hot streak chasers, that make too many FOMO trades each season!

    In 2017 his price fell around $70k around 5 weeks after his hot streak.
    Great explanation Rowsus. Would love your thoughts on Grundy along similar lines. Very hard not to start thinking he may be becoming a new super-elite (110+) on his current hot streak. I wasn’t considering him pre-season but as a Lycett(R2) owner he now seems the logical option but will be close to $ 600 k now.
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