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  1. #1
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    Last preseason, I created tables of PIT Averages for Defs/Mids/Fwds (click here to revisit) and I thought I'd update them with the 2017 data to see how the premiums went last season. For those who haven't heard the term before, PIT (or Points in Team) was first coined by SCS statistician Rowsus to highlight the importance of aggregates over average when choosing players in your side.

    Again, I've used a 70 average for mids and a 60 average for forwards & backs (to account for rookies covering their missed games).

    Mid only


    From 2016, only Danger, Sloane and Neale remained in the top 12 for 2017. Probably also fair enough to class Zerrett, Dusty, Zorko in this category as they topped the fwds in 2016 with 111, 108, 105. Funnily enough, most would have expected Sloane and Neale to drop out due to their interrupted preseasons but alas it was all those "locks" for the top 8 in Treloar, Hanners, JPK, Selwood, Pendles, Parker, Bont, who dropped out.

    Also, every season, we expect our mids will average 115+. However, in reality, only 3-4 mids every season reach a PIT115. Looking at the the 8th-12th best mids over the seasons (including last), PIT108 seems to be what you would want from your starting mid.

    Defenders


    In defence, Doch, Simpson, Rance and Howe remained from 2016. Probably also fair enough to count Laird in this group too (as he was 13th in 2016 due to missed games). Usually the defence varies most from year to year so it was not a bad result for 5 of the top 13 to make the top 12 for 2017, especially with Bartel and Enright retiring from the year before.

    The D4-D6 averages remained similar to previous years. You'd probably still be happy with PIT90-95 from your starters.

    Forwards


    The forwards went quite poorly in 2017. In previous years we've had at least 7 PIT95 forwards, but in 2017 we only had 4. Although Heeney did go 95+ from R4 (bit similar to Titch going 100+ from mid 2015). The lack of high scoring forwards probably made having one or more players averaging PIT88-90 (ie: Steele, Nank, Higgins) pretty reasonable to finish with last season. Also of note is that Westhoff has featured every year but 2016 in the PIT tables (when he averaged 85 from 22 games and finished 21st).

    I think we'll be back to aiming for a PIT95 from our forwards, just on the back of some of the new names available.

    Top 20 PIT60 Forwards

    Seeing how poorly the forwards went, I thought it'd be interesting to look at the top 20 from 2017.
    Looking at the table, funnily enough, starting Roughead (who most probably saw as a failure and traded out, including myself) would've gotten more points for your than starting Greene and JJK last season .
    Just goes to show starting one of those cheaper, lower ceiling players like Rough, Steele, Nank who end up playing 21-22 games can end up being more valuable for your side.

    That sums up my main thoughts on these PIT tables. Keen again to hear everyone’s thoughts.
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  2. #2
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    Awesome work mate, a timely reminder that averages are only relevant once the player is is your side.

    Interesting that only 6 of the top 12 forwards from last season are available as forwards this season. Does that mean we should shift our expectations lower? Buddy the only one remaining over 95+

    Dahl featuring in 3 of the last 4 years probably sways me in his favour somewhat, as does Simpson.

    The 2017 mids really encapsulate the changing of the guard for me. It screams to start Danger Fyfe and perhaps even Pendles though I can't help but feel like we've started to see his demise.

    Ripper article mate, I'll have a more in depth look when I knock off.
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  3. #3
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    Your table above shows Hibberd as missing 4 games and having a PIT of 92.
    While this is strictly correct, my thinking is that he played his first game in round 5 (after a delayed start to the season) and then didn't miss a game after that on his way to a season average of 99.
    I realize there are different arguments about including/excluding various scores for various reasons, but in this case I think it is reasonable to view Hibberd as someone who didn't miss a game all season (once he started) and averaged PIT 99 in the process.
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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
    Awesome work mate, a timely reminder that averages are only relevant once the player is is your side.

    Interesting that only 6 of the top 12 forwards from last season are available as forwards this season. Does that mean we should shift our expectations lower? Buddy the only one remaining over 95+

    Dahl featuring in 3 of the last 4 years probably sways me in his favour somewhat, as does Simpson.

    The 2017 mids really encapsulate the changing of the guard for me. It screams to start Danger Fyfe and perhaps even Pendles though I can't help but feel like we've started to see his demise.

    Ripper article mate, I'll have a more in depth look when I knock off.
    Thanks!

    Yeah, interesting to note that we've lost the top 3 fwds (which also happened last year). We also gained Menegola and a few other DPPs so the loss might be somewhat cancelled out. Not too sure whether we should lower our expectations for fwds this season. I did make comments last year that I thought a 90 for an F6 would be acceptable and that the F6 is the new D6. In hindsight, those comments weren't too far off the mark.

    My gut feel is we still have a lot of reasonable enough options up fwd to get at least 6-7 who avg 95+.
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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ricky Bobby View Post
    Your table above shows Hibberd as missing 4 games and having a PIT of 92.
    While this is strictly correct, my thinking is that he played his fist game in round 5 (after a delayed start to the season) and then didn't miss a game after that on his way to a season average of 99.
    I realize there are different arguments about including/excluding various scores for various reasons, but in this case I think it is reasonable to view Hibberd as someone who didn't miss a game all season (once he started) and averaged PIT 99 in the process.
    Yeah, totally agree. However, in these tables, it's hard to reflect players like Hibberd and Heeney of 2017 and Titch in 2015, who didn't miss games after a delayed start to the season, without getting too subjective.

    Might have a think on what to do with those types for next time!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bomber18 View Post
    Yeah, totally agree. However, in these tables, it's hard to reflect players like Hibberd and Heeney of 2017 and Titch in 2015, who didn't miss games after a delayed start to the season, without getting too subjective.

    Might have a think on what to do with those types for next time!
    I don't think you need to change anything. It is probably up to us (as the users of the information) to make our own "tweaks" to the interpretation of the data as we feel appropriate. Probably in the same way that some people will remove injury scores and massive scores from a players prior year history in order to get a view of a normalized average or aggregate. Some coaches will think this appropriate and others might argue that it isn't.
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    Great stats Bomber, I liked this last year and think it's very helpful analysis.

    Gee this makes Danger look like a lock. #1 for three years running, and not even a close contest in the last two. I had almost decided to make room for him when I read about his back ... think I'll still pass on that basis.

    Pendles is the other one for me. Ranked #1, #1, #2 and #2, and now he's priced off his worst year since 2009.
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    Great work Bomber , makes for interesting reading , always like looking at the forwards and seeing how many key forwards make the list.

    Everyone talks about finding those forwards with more mid time , but if you look at available forwards this year by last seasons aggregate only , Franklin , Dixon , Westhoff , Roughead , Gunston & Daniher are all in the Top 10.

    Going back to Bomber 18's charts , Westhoff sure stands out as does Gunston but don't seem popular in people's sides.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Herbie66 View Post
    Great work Bomber , makes for interesting reading , always like looking at the forwards and seeing how many key forwards make the list.

    Everyone talks about finding those forwards with more mid time , but if you look at available forwards this year by last seasons aggregate only , Franklin , Dixon , Westhoff , Roughead , Gunston & Daniher are all in the Top 10.

    Going back to Bomber 18's charts , Westhoff sure stands out as does Gunston but don't seem popular in people's sides.
    I think the point in your second para is fair, although I would probably read the situation slightly differently. If you look at the midfield tables, there are plenty of recurring names in the top spots.

    For forwards this is less true - largely because the top forwards from prior seasons have gone on to become mids, and often gun mids, eg Zerrett, Dusty, Zorko, Parker, Danger, Rocky.

    Although I think a genuine gun KPF like Buddy is a viable selection, what I take from the forward tables is that we should be largely looking for forward eligible players who haven't progressed to being primarily midfielders yet, but that will over the next year or three. I feel like the numbers might have been skewed slightly last year by Heeney, Greene and Wingard missing quite a few games.
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    I think the point in your second para is fair, although I would probably read the situation slightly differently. If you look at the midfield tables, there are plenty of recurring names in the top spots.

    For forwards this is less true - largely because the top forwards from prior seasons have gone on to become mids, and often gun mids, eg Zerrett, Dusty, Zorko, Parker, Danger, Rocky.

    Although I think a genuine gun KPF like Buddy is a viable selection, what I take from the forward tables is that we should be largely looking for forward eligible players who haven't progressed to being primarily midfielders yet, but that will over the next year or three. I feel like the numbers might have been skewed slightly last year by Heeney, Greene and Wingard missing quite a few games.
    no doubt at all , it then gets down to averages and aggregates and not taking into account PIT.

    Wells then becomes a viable selection.

    Top 10 by average still includes Franklin , Kennedy , Dixon.

    Be interesting to see the Top 10 at the end of the season.

    Their is probably 25 + players who could be in contention.

    I guess what we are hoping is whether they are KPF like Buddy or the forwards playing more mid time like Heeney , Greene , Wingard , Billings , Gray , Dahl , Walters , Lambert , McLean , Barlow , Papley , Smith , de Goey , Petracca etc etc that they play as close to 22 games as possible.

    I still think it would make it a lot more interesting if they "forced" us to pick 1 or 2 KPF but when they continue to offer us these forwards who play mid (nature if the game) we will still obviously pick them.

    Maybe we might get the rule of 3 players in the forward 50 at all time , might change the look of the game for the better.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    I think the point in your second para is fair, although I would probably read the situation slightly differently. If you look at the midfield tables, there are plenty of recurring names in the top spots.

    For forwards this is less true - largely because the top forwards from prior seasons have gone on to become mids, and often gun mids, eg Zerrett, Dusty, Zorko, Parker, Danger, Rocky.

    Although I think a genuine gun KPF like Buddy is a viable selection, what I take from the forward tables is that we should be largely looking for forward eligible players who haven't progressed to being primarily midfielders yet, but that will over the next year or three. I feel like the numbers might have been skewed slightly last year by Heeney, Greene and Wingard missing quite a few games.
    Quote Originally Posted by Herbie66 View Post
    no doubt at all , it then gets down to averages and aggregates and not taking into account PIT.

    Wells then becomes a viable selection.

    Top 10 by average still includes Franklin , Kennedy , Dixon.

    Be interesting to see the Top 10 at the end of the season.

    Their is probably 25 + players who could be in contention.

    I guess what we are hoping is whether they are KPF like Buddy or the forwards playing more mid time like Heeney , Greene , Wingard , Billings , Gray , Dahl , Walters , Lambert , McLean , Barlow , Papley , Smith , de Goey , Petracca etc etc that they play as close to 22 games as possible.

    I still think it would make it a lot more interesting if they "forced" us to pick 1 or 2 KPF but when they continue to offer us these forwards who play mid (nature if the game) we will still obviously pick them.

    Maybe we might get the rule of 3 players in the forward 50 at all time , might change the look of the game for the better.
    The KPFs generally finish pretty well in the PIT averages as they generally play all 22 games (JJK the unlucky one last season). So a Daniher, Westhoff or Gunston going at 90 @ 22 games could finish top 6-8 this season? Wouldn't be the worst result if you started eg: Daniher and he finished 11-12th either averaging 90 either (am slightly considering him again after this comment!). Generally 93-97 is what you'd need from your F6-F8, but last year 88-90 was enough if the fwd played 22 games.

    I also had great success in 2016 with Westhoff averaging high 80s as he played every game for me. Last season, Buddy was superb (although shaky at times) when I traded him in early to average 100 in my side w/o missing games.

    Anyway, my point is KPFs generally play all 22 games so have good PIT averages.
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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkie View Post
    I think the point in your second para is fair, although I would probably read the situation slightly differently. If you look at the midfield tables, there are plenty of recurring names in the top spots.

    For forwards this is less true - largely because the top forwards from prior seasons have gone on to become mids, and often gun mids, eg Zerrett, Dusty, Zorko, Parker, Danger, Rocky.

    Although I think a genuine gun KPF like Buddy is a viable selection, what I take from the forward tables is that we should be largely looking for forward eligible players who haven't progressed to being primarily midfielders yet, but that will over the next year or three. I feel like the numbers might have been skewed slightly last year by Heeney, Greene and Wingard missing quite a few games.
    It seems to me that there won't be as many top forwards going on to be mid only next season this time. Heeney obviously jumps out, maybe Barlow as well. Apart from that, there are a lot of mid types who will probably rotate through the forward line a lot- Petracca, Gray (recovery obviously an issue too), Dahlhaus, Wallis, McLean, Robinson, Parish, Mathieson, de Goey, Hewett, Smith and Billings (assuming that their advertised mid time isn't just pre-season hype). Some of them will spend lot more time in the midfield and get a scoring jump out of it, but good luck confidently predicting which one it will be.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bomber18 View Post
    The KPFs generally finish pretty well in the PIT averages as they generally play all 22 games (JJK the unlucky one last season). So a Daniher, Westhoff or Gunston going at 90 @ 22 games could finish top 6-8 this season? Wouldn't be the worst result if you started eg: Daniher and he finished 11-12th either averaging 90 either (am slightly considering him again after this comment!). Generally 93-97 is what you'd need from your F6-F8, but last year 88-90 was enough if the fwd played 22 games.

    I also had great success in 2016 with Westhoff averaging high 80s as he played every game for me. Last season, Buddy was superb (although shaky at times) when I traded him in early to average 100 in my side w/o missing games.

    Anyway, my point is KPFs generally play all 22 games so have good PIT averages.
    Yeah has got me re thinking my forwards , I currently have a watch list of about 20 so a few more won't hurt :-)

    seriously though Daniher , Gunston and Westhoff are well worth a look.

    Have not been on the Buddy ride for awhile either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by McLovin View Post
    It seems to me that there won't be as many top forwards going on to be mid only next season this time. Heeney obviously jumps out, maybe Barlow as well. Apart from that, there are a lot of mid types who will probably rotate through the forward line a lot- Petracca, Gray (recovery obviously an issue too), Dahlhaus, Wallis, McLean, Robinson, Parish, Mathieson, de Goey, Hewett, Smith and Billings (assuming that their advertised mid time isn't just pre-season hype). Some of them will spend lot more time in the midfield and get a scoring jump out of it, but good luck confidently predicting which one it will be.
    You may well be right onthis, although I don't think they need to go on to be pure mids next year necessarily. I think a number of the players I mentioned may have had a couple of good years at forward premium status before becoming gun pure mids. Dusty, Zorko and Rocky would be the ones I'm confident of.

    You'd normally think that high levels of mid/fwd rotation would be bad for mid scoring but good for fwd scoring ... although there isn't a huge amount of evidence of that at this stage.
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