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  1. #1
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    7 Not allowed!

    The series so far...

    Defenders

    Midfielders

    Rucks

    I've combed through the eligible candidates starting with the Defenders, Midfielders, Rucks, and now cast my eyes on the Forwards group. I know that one particular member has been eagerly waiting for the release of this edition, so I will skip my usual introductory ramble. You can give that F5 key a rest now BigRuss...

    What have I got to look forward to?
    • Detailed historical stats table
    • Summary of averages of key indicators since 2014
    • Round by round detailed stats for the 2017 season
    • 2017 averages broken down by thirds
    • My observations & commentaries
    • My prediction & verdict
    • List of any 'value' and/or 'underpriced' players of interests
    • Potential 'breakout' players where applicable


    Sam MENEGOLA

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    When the positions were released for 2018, I was very surprised that he got awarded forward eligibility. I don't have preview to his heat maps to support this and what's done is done. Could this be the 'gift horse' from the SC god? Has pretty much averaged 100 as a matured age recruit from 25 games across 2 seasons, after debuting in Rd18 of 2016, that's as an impressive start as anyone fantasy wise. Has all the hallmarks of a potential elite fantasy scorer, inside contested bull who tackles and kick goals. His scoring spread has been good and has the ceiling to go with it too, 11/25 tons (6 over 120) and 6 other scores in the 90s. Outside sharing the bye with many other popular candidates, others may get 'spooked' by the name Ablett and what impact this will have on his role. As I've stated in the Dangerfield thread (post #100) and if this was to eventuate, I don't believe his role will be impacted much at all, he may even benefit from the Ablett addition. He's one that I feel confident as a likely top 6 forwards, but his starting price and bye is pushing him into the 'wait & see' bucket for mine.

    Prediction: 90-110
    Verdict: Consider
    Last edited by THCLT; 14-02-2018 at 10:27am.
    SuperCoach:  9,307 (2017)  15,799 (2016)  1,033 (2015)  6,367 (2014)  8,442 (2013)  AFL Dream Team:  485 (2017)  2,706 (2016) 

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  2. #2
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    Lance FRANKLIN

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    One of the few premier KPFs in the game and surprising has not missed a H&A game over the past 2 seasons. His past history speaks for itself, however, I feel that his days as a 100+ player are numbered. He's still got what it takes to comfortably churn out a 90+ average over the course of a season, which is probably more likely his 'new' benchmark. Like I've mentioned with numerous other players, his Rd14 bye is a stinker and his inconsistent in season scoring makes it hard to mount a strong case as a starting proposition. Couple this with his slightly limited preseason and I think he better fits the potential upgrade category.

    Prediction: 90-105
    Verdict: Upgrade target
    Last edited by THCLT; 14-02-2018 at 1:20pm.
    SuperCoach:  9,307 (2017)  15,799 (2016)  1,033 (2015)  6,367 (2014)  8,442 (2013)  AFL Dream Team:  485 (2017)  2,706 (2016) 

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  3. #3
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    2 Not allowed!

    Isaac HEENEY

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    I've stated that I'm a fan of Parker and how he goes about his footy, I believe that Heeney has the pedigree to go beyond that. I'm not overly concerned about his lack of a preseason, as he's shown last year that he could still hit the ground running, even on the back of no preseason. All his key indicators point towards a greater share of the midfield rotations for 2017, and barring any unforeseen changes during the preseason, I'd expect this upward trend to continue. Durability hasn't been his greatest asset, but the upside is definitely there and could be immense. He's one of the few that has the potential to be pushing midfield acceptable numbers.

    Prediction: 90-115
    Verdict: Strongly consider
    Last edited by THCLT; 14-02-2018 at 11:57am.
    SuperCoach:  9,307 (2017)  15,799 (2016)  1,033 (2015)  6,367 (2014)  8,442 (2013)  AFL Dream Team:  485 (2017)  2,706 (2016) 

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  4. #4
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    1 Not allowed!

    Toby GREENE

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    Outside his 'brain-fade' episodes, he backed up a good season with an even better one, his best since playing predominantly as a forward. Managed almost a 6 points overall increase in his average, despite averaging 3 disposals less a game. This would indicate that the type and impact of his possessions were more significant than ever, as evident by his SC to DT ratio (1.05) rising above 1.0 for the first time in his career. He was obviously also more productive in front of goals, but more important were the increase in his CPs (+6% on 2016) and particularly his rate of contested marking, which was doubled on 2016 figures at 30%. The other factor would be his more consistent scoring pattern, only 5/16 were tons with a low of 70 versus 10/21 tons in 2016 but with 6 scores of 66 or less. There's no doubt in my mind that he's got all the natural talents to excel as an elite fantasy prospect, if he ever manages to reign in those acts which gets him in hot water with the MRP. Has upside on all his key indicator stats to improve on his overall output as he's reached those levels before, but am liking him more as an upgrade target.

    Prediction: 90-105
    Verdict: Upgrade target
    Last edited by THCLT; 14-02-2018 at 2:52pm.
    SuperCoach:  9,307 (2017)  15,799 (2016)  1,033 (2015)  6,367 (2014)  8,442 (2013)  AFL Dream Team:  485 (2017)  2,706 (2016) 

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  5. #5
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    Josh K KENNEDY

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    Another KPFs of similar ilk to Franklin, probably a level below. His scoring pattern is as classic as they come for your typical premium KPFs, lots of tons (with a couple of big ones) interspersed with many low scores which makes you 'cringed'. Has only ever recorded 1 season at 95+ which was his best at 98 from 2 years ago. Experienced some calf issues last year which is a bad sign considering his age, and takes away from his usually good durability attribute. On top of the 'changing of the guards' in the midfield, it looks likely that there'll also be a lot of new faces lining up forward for the Eagles. All this points towards him being more viable as a potential upgrade target, and most likely at a significantly discounted price based on his history.

    Prediction: 80-100
    Verdict: Upgrade target
    Last edited by THCLT; 14-02-2018 at 3:12pm.
    SuperCoach:  9,307 (2017)  15,799 (2016)  1,033 (2015)  6,367 (2014)  8,442 (2013)  AFL Dream Team:  485 (2017)  2,706 (2016) 

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  6. #6
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    1 Not allowed!

    Chad WINGARD

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    He represents the same dilemma for our forward line as Yeo's does for our defence, his scoring history and scoring by role is a complete 'yo-yo'. Even in his down years, he's given us a glimpse that makes us believe that he has legitimate claims to one day being a 100+ player. By the same token, he's also most likely of the current premium group to deliver an underwhelming season. Injuries has been a concern of late, couple with his inconsistent scorings and the early bye makes it hard to justify as a starting option. It's hard to predict with any great confidence which Wingard is going to turn up for 2018, based on current history and trend, it's more likely to be the 'sub-standard' Wingard?

    Prediction: 80-100
    Verdict: Upgrade target
    Last edited by THCLT; 14-02-2018 at 3:36pm.
    SuperCoach:  9,307 (2017)  15,799 (2016)  1,033 (2015)  6,367 (2014)  8,442 (2013)  AFL Dream Team:  485 (2017)  2,706 (2016) 

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  7. #7
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    5 Not allowed!

    Potential VALUE

    • R Gray (PTA) - Played injured for most of last season and looked terrible at times to the naked eyes. Still managed a 92 season (with a 30,38,44 & 45) , his worst return in 4 years. Of the contenders, he's the only one with recent history capable of going 110s and for that reason he's well underpriced. There's only 2 words which I think is relevant, cancer and groin. If you feel that he's overcome the worst of them both, then I'm confident that he'll reward you accordingly.
    • M Barlow (GCS) - Returning from a broken leg, but is back to full fitness from all reports. With GAJ gone and a new coach, the opportunity is there for him to play a more prominent role through their midfield. I feel 100+ would be a bit of a stretch, but a level just below is certainly within reach if given the right role and circumstance.
    • D Smith (ESS) - If you're a believer that he'll get his fair share of midfield minutes, then he's priced is at least 10 points unders. There hasn't been that significant drop off in his raw stats of the past 2 seasons when compared with his 90+ seasons, so the likelihood of him 'bouncing' back with the right role is very probable. My concern with him is not so much his potential output but more so his durability, which may be the decisive consideration.

    BREAKOUT Candidates

    • J De Goey (COL) - Had a strong finished to last year averaging 88 from his last 7 games, which could've been much higher had he not registered those 3 low scores. Obviously, Pendlebury was absent for most of this stretch of games but he showed that he can handle himself much better as a midfielder rather than his customary forward pocket role. He's highly rated at the Pies and maybe they have found a spot for him to excel in. Given the right role and opportunity, I feel that he's in that 'sweet' spot to make that jump to the next level.
    • C Petracca (MEL) - Maybe not on exposed form but on pure talent alone, he should be in consideration. The one hurdle limiting his midfield minutes has been his tank. If this has been ticked off over the preseason, then he absolutely can make the necessary progression.
    • R Mathieson (BRL) - I read that he has worked intensely at increasing his tank capacity over the off-season, probably to be in line to take up the midfield minutes vacated by Rockliff. Has shown in his 2 seasons that he's not shy of a contest and can win his own ball and use it well. If he can secure the majority of those midfield time, then there's room enough in his key indicators for him to make that transition. The Lions do have some highly rated kids so there will be competition for that spot, but he's got as good a chance as any.

    Final Thoughts

    2015: 113 (1st), 110 (2nd), 106 (3rd), 105 (6th), 98 (10th) & 95 (15th)
    2016: 112 (1st), 109 (2nd), 108 (3rd), 99 (6th), 96 (10th) & 92 (15th)
    2017: 107 (1st), 102 (2nd), 98 (3rd), 94 (6th), 91 (10th) & 87 (15th)

    With so many legitimate starting options right across the spectrum, Premium, Value & Breakout, I find it hard to settle on any group of players for my starting team. My early preference is to go deeper in my forward than defence, provided that it complement the Rookies available for Rd1. This is also an area where I have a heavy weighting of players on my 'watch list' so expect it to chop and change right throughout the JLT series as more information come to hand.
    Last edited by THCLT; 14-02-2018 at 5:09pm.
    SuperCoach:  9,307 (2017)  15,799 (2016)  1,033 (2015)  6,367 (2014)  8,442 (2013)  AFL Dream Team:  485 (2017)  2,706 (2016) 

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  8. #8
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    16 Not allowed!

    This now concludes my series on the 'Top Priced PREMIUMS by NUMBERS'.

    I didn't realised how much it would take to compile until after I've completed the Defenders and Midfielders, hence I've been working on the Rucks and Forwards 'behind to scene' prior to releasing them to the main forum as I didn't want to 'drip feed'.

    The underlying intention of this series is NOT to influence which of the top priced premiums you should select for your starting team, rather, I just wanted to present my interpretation of the stats and observations/opinions on players as I see them.

    I hope that you've taken something 'positive' from this series, whether it be the stats or my take on certain players. More importantly, by looking at the stats and reading another angle on these players, it will help to shape your own opinion and stance on them.

    I've been busy with work commitments of late, which unfortunately means I have had to cut back on some 'ideas' I had for analysis piece since the end of last season. I just can't devote the time to research/analyse the data in order to turn them into 'proper' analysis piece for discussion and critique. In saying that, I have started and will complete (in due course) an analysis piece which will carry the title 'FALLEN Premiums or Premiums in DECLINE'. This will be my final analysis piece for this preseason as I too, like many others, have to work on my starting team for Rd1.
    Last edited by THCLT; 14-02-2018 at 8:17pm.
    SuperCoach:  9,307 (2017)  15,799 (2016)  1,033 (2015)  6,367 (2014)  8,442 (2013)  AFL Dream Team:  485 (2017)  2,706 (2016) 

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