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  1. #1
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    7 Not allowed!

    The traditional unspoken rule in SuperCoach was 'Do Not Trade After Round 1' with reasons varying from:

    1. Avoiding NAB Cup pre-season bolters
    2. Avoiding Round 1 bolters, who may have an easy first game
    3. Avoiding trading in a player when there is another game before a price increase
    4. Avoiding trading out premiums after 1 bad game

    Another unspoken rule in SuperCoach was to trade conservatively and reduce playing short later in the year. I can confidently speak on behalf of the 2 SuperCoach Winners that trading conservatively now is actually a more riskier approach than trading aggressively.

    Remember, I kept 2 trades for the last 10 rounds and ChewyLizard left 1 trade for the last 7 rounds; refer to: How Far Is Too Far to be the 2013 SuperCoach Winner article.

    I still believe that all things being equal you should NOT trade after round 1. However, there are exceptions which will be discussed later on. I will firstly give my views on the popular topics.

    Trading Patrick Dangerfield Out?

    As most will be aware, Dangerfield punished me last year when he was a MID/FWD when I didn't have him in my SuperCoach team. Now that Dangerfield is in my SuperCoach team, he continues the punishment with his score of 63 when priced at 119.

    While it is very tempting to trade Dangerfield to JPK, personally, I'll be keeping Dangerfield.

    Dangerfield was rumoured to have had a cold before the Essendon game and tagged very closely. Naturally, Dangerfield could and is very likely to be tagged every week, however we knew this when we first picked Dangerfield in our team. I will give Dangerfield another week and if he scores sub-100, I think there is no choice but to trade him out to avoid a significant drop in price.

    Trading Buddy Franklin Out?

    As most will know after reading the Buddy Franklin, that Buddy Franklin is not in my initial SuperCoach team.

    However, those with Buddy Franklin, I suggest you at least give Buddy one more week as there will be no price change until the of round 3.

    Trading Oliver Wines In?

    This is a tough one as Wines played really well and had 24 possession and 125SC against Melbourne and now plays GWS. Obviously priced at $169,500 was the concern for non-Wines owners, which if he averages 125SC the initial price tag means nothing.

    For me, I'll be holding off for another week before I decide to get Wines or not. However, I don't think there is a major downfall, if you want to follow your gut feeling. The reason I'm holding off for another week is that Wines getting to $360K is the same as M.Jones getting to $300K.

    Naturally, if Wines scores another 100, then it may force my hand (yes, I'll cop losing Wine's score this round).

    Trading Gary Ablett In?

    I think some Gary Ablett owners are in a bit of pain after his score of 178, which I thought was a bit lower than expected. Now the knee-jerk reaction is to look for a way to bring in the SuperCoach Maestro?

    The thing with Buddy and Ablett is that most people would pick them and those who purposely decided not to pick them would be due to their own strategy. You don't simply not pick Buddy and/or Ablett unless there is a reason whether it's value, early draw, overpriced etc and there is definitely nothing wrong with that (at this stage).

    Personally, if I was are a non-Ablett owner and I chose to back myself to not have Ablett in my initial SuperCoach team, then I would hold off for one week before making my decision. Yes, Ablett has a great record against the Swans but for some reason I don't think the Swans will take Ablett/Gold Coast lightly.

    I think if you a Dangerfield owner and you are desperate to bring Ablett In and it will take 1 or 2 trades (and not 3) then Maybe.

    The Ablett call is for you to make!

    On a side issue, just note that if you decided to have JPK (147) instead of Ablett (178) and used the loose change to say upgrade a cheaper premium to say a Cotchin (119) then you could be on par. Remember at 3 quarter time, Ablett was on track to score about the same as JPK or lower, which would have meant a win for JPK owners as he is cheaper. Ablett just had a freakish final quarter.

    Trading Generally

    I for one will be definitely trading this round and will be using 2 trades.

    I will be trading Newman to Pittard, which was planned after the Richmond game and thus I chose not to have Pittard for round 1. I think if I was not downgrading Newman, I would keep him for a another week. If it wasn't a Pittard or someone with reasonable job security and a rookie, then I would keep Newman.

    I will also be using another trade to likely upgrade Byrnes.

    I think with 30 trades, you can be a bit cavalier for the first few trades, but they must be 'correction trades'.

    Personally, I would not side-trade premiums, but with Newman it's a downgrade (and indirectly a 'team structure change).

    I think the key here is to back yourself for non-performing premiums, give them another week.

    I'm giving Dangerfield, Pavlich and Zorko another week.

    Newman just didn't look right and not a naturally midfielder/winger and my trades is for the team structure.

    Either way, I think the key is to back your own judgment. There are pros and cons for trading after the first round.

    Cheerios,

    Jay

    NB: I have a feeling Wines will punish me with a 100+ and Dangerfield with a 70, hopefully I'm wrong
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  2. #2
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    2 Not allowed!

    thanks for the article Jay, helped me make the decision to not trade ablett in...
    SuperCoach:  N/A (2015) 

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  3. #3
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    4 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Prochard View Post
    thanks for the article Jay, helped me make the decision to not trade ablett in...
    Disclaimer: Jay will take credit for good advice, but will not accept blame for a bad advice...LOL
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  4. #4
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    5 Not allowed!

    In regards to people wanting to trade Dangerfield out, I think it may turn out longer term, to be something they regret.
    Some people are thinking they need to trade him now, because they don't want to deal with a price drop later.
    My response to that is twofold:
    Firstly, when you pick Premiums you are picking players for points, not dollars. Largely their price is irrelevant, as for the most part, you shouldn't be trading non-LTI/suspended Premiums out.
    Secondly, because his stinker was in round 1 it only counts in ONE price change. When his price changes in round 4, that 63 will be gone! If he scores 100 this week, and 120 next week, his price drops around $28k, and his break even will only be around 111!
    Unless you are 100% you have more than 2 corrections to be made next week, and you have no other choice, it would seem crazy to trade him out this week.
    Remember, last season Pendlebury started of with 167, 127, 62. If that 62 was in round 1, would you have traded him out? I don't think many of you could honestly say yes, but it could have just easily been round 1 instead of round 3. And he copped it in his pricing for 3 weeks, not the 1 week that Dangerfield will!
    We're goin' to need a bigger boat...

  5. #5
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    1 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Prochard View Post
    thanks for the article Jay, helped me make the decision to not trade ablett in...
    This. No ablett or wines and I have danger, Ryder and Harper but will sit tight and back them to score well this week.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  6. #6
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    0 Not allowed!

    Rowsus thanks for the reminder, perfectly timed actually. Last year I traded lake out after round 1 and pendles in to get those low scores. Double whammy..which is why I'm not trading this week as exactly the same deal is every chance to happen again.
    SuperCoach:  1,895 (2017)  4,853 (2016)  5,202 (2015)  479 (2014)  7,684 (2013) 

    Highest overall ranking: 18th (Rd 18, 2014)

  7. #7
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    0 Not allowed!

    What will you do you if newman comes out and gets a 100? I dont think he will my tip would be around 80 every game
    SuperCoach:  4,558 (2016)  10,068 (2015)  722 (2014)  29 (2013)  474 (2012)  925 (2011) 


  8. #8
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    0 Not allowed!

    Thanks for another great article Jay, love hearing your views on trading after round 1.
    No trades for me this week, will like everyone else be having a close look at Dangerfield's score but tbh like Rowsus said you pick a premium for the season, and I will likely not trade him out.
    SuperCoach:  7,008 (2017)  1,940 (2016)  2,715 (2015)  3,063 (2014)  8,473 (2013)  282 (2012) 

    That's What I'm Talkin' About

  9. #9
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    0 Not allowed!

    Interesting article Inpromptu. I am fairly lucky with Ablett, Pendles, Swan, JPK and Fyfe. However I did listen to you and brought in Newman at the last minute. My back line consists of Goddard, Gibbs, Duffield, Newman, Goodes, Pittard, (Stevenson, Terlich). With some security in backline I reckon I will hang onto Newman this week. However if he fails again then with $82k left I may look at a sideways trade next week to say a Hartlett if they score well again.

  10. #10
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    0 Not allowed!

    Thanks for the Article Jay! Greatly appreciated!

    Jay, you know the Kennett curse, between Hawthorn and Geelong, right? Well, is there a curse starting to arise between Jay To and Patrick Dangerfield? The pain of you not selecting him last year, and Danger doing extremely well, and then the pain of you selecting him this year, and then giving you low scores.
    SuperCoach:  11,230 (2016)  13,984 (2015)  54,528 (2014)  4,502 (2013)  9,020 (2012)  927 (2011)  ~5,000 (2010) 

    Co-Founder and CEO of the 2014 SCDL (SuperCoach Draft League) - Division's 1 and 2.

  11. #11
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    0 Not allowed!

    Dangerfield easily accounted for Raines last season who tagged him yet couldn't stop him scoring 134.
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  12. #12
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    1 Not allowed!

    At half time in the Richmond v Carlton game last week I was convinced Newman was a late withdrawal. Was looking for #17 running around! Only to realise I should have been looking for #1. Unfortunately still didn't do enough in the second half. Traded him out immediately but have decided to give him one last chance. I think positions D3 and D4 are going to be troublesome all year. Will just have to put up with the inconsistent scores.
    SuperCoach:  3007 (2013)  542 (2012)  8421 (2011) 


  13. #13
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    0 Not allowed!

    I have this gut feeling that Sydney will do something about ablett this week after last week's performance. well, im hoping so, really cant afford to miss out on another 175x2.
    SuperCoach:  N/A (2015) 

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  14. #14
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by johno686 View Post
    What will you do you if newman comes out and gets a 100? I dont think he will my tip would be around 80 every game
    I actually expect Newman to do well tonight.
    That is why I don't think Newman should be a side-trade yet.
    I'm only trading out Newman for a structural reason as even though Newman might score 100, I would back Pittard to score say 75. However, I redistributing the funds to my forward line to upgrade Byrnes. As per above, I'm really trading in Stevenson not Pittard, but it's Pittard as I chose to have Stevenson last week as I needed the extra 10K.
    Thus, if Newman does well I'll cop it on the chin. It would be bad feeling if Newman scores a 100 and my traded in premium scores a 100 as waste of a trade. However, this Newman trade is for structural reasons.
    Quote Originally Posted by Polarbear View Post
    Interesting article Inpromptu. I am fairly lucky with Ablett, Pendles, Swan, JPK and Fyfe. However I did listen to you and brought in Newman at the last minute. My back line consists of Goddard, Gibbs, Duffield, Newman, Goodes, Pittard, (Stevenson, Terlich). With some security in backline I reckon I will hang onto Newman this week. However if he fails again then with $82k left I may look at a sideways trade next week to say a Hartlett if they score well again.
    As per my post above, I think that's a good decision.
    Newman isn't as bad and I would keep him, but not at the risk of my horrible forward line. I think while it may cost you some points, I think that's a good approach.

    Quote Originally Posted by bakes1979 View Post
    At half time in the Richmond v Carlton game last week I was convinced Newman was a late withdrawal. Was looking for #17 running around! Only to realise I should have been looking for #1. Unfortunately still didn't do enough in the second half. Traded him out immediately but have decided to give him one last chance. I think positions D3 and D4 are going to be troublesome all year. Will just have to put up with the inconsistent scores.
    Agree that D3 and D4 is a bit troublesome, that's why I decided to downgrade to Pittard and improve my forwardline. That way if Newman scores a 100 and Pittard becomes a lemon at least I paid for Pittard's lemon score at the right price.

    If there wasn't a suitable downgrade ie Pittard, then I would have kept Newman. In effect I've paid the price of 2 trades to get a more comfortable team structure. The team structure change actually could bring in Leuenberger by replacing Byrnes. Alternatively, Byrnes could be a forward premium or Leuenberger for me.
    SuperCoach:  Winner (2011)  724 (2010)  188 (2009)  AFL Dream Team:  26 (2011) 

    Sooner or later you're going to realize, just as I did, that there's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path - Morpheus
    Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what's waiting beyond that beach?Immortality! Take it! It's Yours! - Achilles

  15. #15
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    0 Not allowed!

    Im in the position where i believe i have got my rookies right straight off the bat and wont need to use corrective rookie trades next week.I have Zorko and Danger as underperformers however. With 194k in the bank, and my first 4 head to heads all having Ablett, I think its a must to bring him in. I do want to keep Dangerfield, but i think the need for Ablett is too great to ignore.
    SuperCoach:  12499 (2015)  5015 (2014)  22 (2013)  10k (2012)  20k (2011) 


  16. #16
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    0 Not allowed!

    I am extremely tempted to do Danger > Mundy, mainly because I think he will match him at a much lower cost, and that cash could be used to grab someone like Moloney as well.
      Quote Quote

  17. #17
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by quickie View Post
    I am extremely tempted to do Danger > Mundy, mainly because I think he will match him at a much lower cost, and that cash could be used to grab someone like Moloney as well.
    Watch it one more week mate
    SuperCoach:  4,558 (2016)  10,068 (2015)  722 (2014)  29 (2013)  474 (2012)  925 (2011) 


  18. #18
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    0 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
    In regards to people wanting to trade Dangerfield out, I think it may turn out longer term, to be something they regret.
    Some people are thinking they need to trade him now, because they don't want to deal with a price drop later.
    My response to that is twofold:
    Firstly, when you pick Premiums you are picking players for points, not dollars. Largely their price is irrelevant, as for the most part, you shouldn't be trading non-LTI/suspended Premiums out.
    Secondly, because his stinker was in round 1 it only counts in ONE price change. When his price changes in round 4, that 63 will be gone! If he scores 100 this week, and 120 next week, his price drops around $28k, and his break even will only be around 111!
    Unless you are 100% you have more than 2 corrections to be made next week, and you have no other choice, it would seem crazy to trade him out this week.
    Remember, last season Pendlebury started of with 167, 127, 62. If that 62 was in round 1, would you have traded him out? I don't think many of you could honestly say yes, but it could have just easily been round 1 instead of round 3. And he copped it in his pricing for 3 weeks, not the 1 week that Dangerfield will!
    I agree with everything you say in theory Rowsus, but what if Danger only scores 60-80 points this week? Should we consider trading him out before round 3 or would you still keep him? I noticed that Chewylizard made a call on Montagna last year who was his M.4 premium and brought in Mitchell. Could the Dangerfield decision be considered in this way if we believe he isn't going to back up his breakout year...? It would still be a big call from 2 games but how much would he drop in price? cheers.
    SuperCoach:  60th (2014)  8th (2013)  64th (2011) 

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  19. #19
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    0 Not allowed!

    What about Jack Watts? My inclination is to keep him and back my judgement that he would average 95-100 this season playing across half back. However if I hold off a week then it ties my hands for next week if I need to make more than 2 corrections considering Dangerfield may be one and my rucks as well. My though is to downgrade Watts to Terlich and upgrade Blicavs/Daw to a Mumford/Griffin/Kreuzer but I just can't bring myself to hit the button due to being burnt from previous round 1 trades. Any help with this one?
    SuperCoach:  60th (2014)  8th (2013)  64th (2011) 

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  20. #20
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    2 Not allowed!

    Quote Originally Posted by quickie View Post
    I am extremely tempted to do Danger > Mundy, mainly because I think he will match him at a much lower cost, and that cash could be used to grab someone like Moloney as well.
    Lower touted to tag Mundy, could end in tears for you

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