Position 2024: DEFENDER DISCUSSION

Joined
20 Mar 2016
Messages
1,314
Likes
4,462
The learning is pay attention to all Rowsus stats about players not backing up big years. Value, value, value. I reckon the play is keep heaps in the bank and only buy value guys. Use boosts to spend that cash moving the wrong value guys to the expensive ones backing it up. Saving this here so I fully commit to it next year!
Value, value, value… and you have a team losing points each week since you own none of the Top 6 defenders (y)
 
Joined
19 Feb 2021
Messages
165
Likes
393
AFL Club
Melbourne
If you did that you probably miss Ryan, Stewart, Houston and Sheezel...
I don't think it's as simple as that as not only do you risk having fires all over the team, but you also can only fix a small number of them each week. By the time you identify the right trade outs and right trade ins, your season is likely done.

The key to SC is starting the right ones and building around them with value guys that are underpriced. The problem is, most of that is only identifiable by hindsight!
I dunno Sheezel and Stewart looked underpriced, and Ryan was in the chat with Young moving out? All spoken of as value before round 1.
 
Joined
9 Dec 2020
Messages
2,056
Likes
10,465
AFL Club
Essendon
I dunno Sheezel and Stewart looked underpriced, and Ryan was in the chat with Young moving out? All spoken of as value before round 1.
Sheezel maybe but I don't think anyone was saying Stewart or Ryan were value picks. I think you'd be hard pressed to sell all 3 as value selections, and if you consider them value then I think your premise of not starting overpriced players is basically just hindsight bias saying "pick the good picks and don't pick the bad ones".
 
Joined
19 Jan 2016
Messages
1,852
Likes
6,246
On value picks, could be a few still there. Which, if any, of these guys have a very good chance of being top ten by average from now on?
Young
Clark
Heppel
Duggan
 
Joined
20 Mar 2016
Messages
1,314
Likes
4,462
I dunno Sheezel and Stewart looked underpriced, and Ryan was in the chat with Young moving out? All spoken of as value before round 1.
Only 10 players in the game are currently more expensive than Stewart's starting price of 635.3K.

2 are the elite rucks (English & Gawn)
6 are elite top 8 mids (Bont, Merrett, Green, Petracca, Butters & Serong)
The other 2 are the Brownlow favourite (Heeney) and then the 133 averaging Luke Ryan.

If Stewart was underpriced, everyone is underpriced....
 
Joined
25 Feb 2019
Messages
2,426
Likes
10,744
AFL Club
Adelaide
A couple of (hopefully self-explanatory) tables comparing the Top-Priced 20 Defenders at the start of the season and the current Top-Priced 20 Defenders.
View attachment 71043
So far Daicos is the biggest cash loser & McGovern is the big winner..
* Noticed overall #1 team has Gov & does not have Naicos
As most on this site are concerned with overall rank, I thought it might also be useful to look at total points scored so far.
Despite his loss in value, Naicos's scoring has him 2nd on the list. **
Some interesting names have popped up though. :unsure:
1712710279740.png

** It's only fair to see how things look after the 1st round of byes when everyone has played the same number of games.
 
Joined
8 Aug 2012
Messages
398
Likes
2,560
AFL Club
Bulldogs
I posted a priced-based analysis of Defenders yesterday (see post #295) in this thread
This is another look at the top defenders but more from a performance point of view - ie their average pts score to date.
** NOTE - Only players with 3 games or more have been included

The first panel is ranked on original salary
The second panel is ranked on current pts average
The third panel is ranked on current salary

Ups and Downs.JPG

I have segmented the analysis so that we can see the difference between the top 10 and the top 11-20 (10 is arbitrary, but..)
The green shaded amounts represent the dollars paid per point scored for the given set of 10 players.

Salmon colours in the second & third panels reflect players in the original top-10 for price
Blue colours in the second & third panels reflect players in the original top-11-20 for price

I havent spent a lot of time anlaysing this - so draw your own conclusions!

A couple of things tho came to mind ..
Panel 1 - Original Price order
Ther isnt quite as big a difference between the results of the top 10 and the next top 10 as I would have expected. They're doing better by 100 ppw but the value difference favours the second group, which must reduce the overall advantage.

Panel 2 - Average ppw order
The top-10 of panel 2 is where we all want to be (at this stage anyway).
Only 4 of the original top-10 most expensive players feature, plus two more from the next tier
Across the top 20 there are 6 and 5 respectively.
No really cheap players in there.
 

Attachments

Joined
14 Feb 2014
Messages
112
Likes
338
AFL Club
North Melb.
Learning is holding onto your premiums and don’t trade them out after too bad games ie. Young…
 
Joined
18 Sep 2012
Messages
1,183
Likes
2,975
AFL Club
Geelong
Only 10 players in the game are currently more expensive than Stewart's starting price of 635.3K.

2 are the elite rucks (English & Gawn)
6 are elite top 8 mids (Bont, Merrett, Green, Petracca, Butters & Serong)
The other 2 are the Brownlow favourite (Heeney) and then the 133 averaging Luke Ryan.

If Stewart was underpriced, everyone is underpriced....
Stewart copped a game ending injury in Q1 last year for just 18 points. Remove that game and he’s 5 points underpriced.
 
Joined
3 May 2017
Messages
2,610
Likes
8,649
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Learning is holding onto your premiums and don’t trade them out after too bad games ie. Young…
So I started:
Daicos
Young
Martin*
Newcombe
LDU*
Jackson (TBC)

*Still holding. I'm not doing much better than coin flip on whether to keep them. Gut said sell LDU. If I followed that, it would just be Young I got wrong. Let's ee how this plays out.
 
Joined
3 Feb 2021
Messages
2,353
Likes
12,695
AFL Club
Essendon
I posted a priced-based analysis of Defenders yesterday (see post #295) in this thread
This is another look at the top defenders but more from a performance point of view - ie their average pts score to date.
** NOTE - Only players with 3 games or more have been included

The first panel is ranked on original salary
The second panel is ranked on current pts average
The third panel is ranked on current salary

View attachment 71100

I have segmented the analysis so that we can see the difference between the top 10 and the top 11-20 (10 is arbitrary, but..)
The green shaded amounts represent the dollars paid per point scored for the given set of 10 players.

Salmon colours in the second & third panels reflect players in the original top-10 for price
Blue colours in the second & third panels reflect players in the original top-11-20 for price

I havent spent a lot of time anlaysing this - so draw your own conclusions!

A couple of things tho came to mind ..
Panel 1 - Original Price order
Ther isnt quite as big a difference between the results of the top 10 and the next top 10 as I would have expected. They're doing better by 100 ppw but the value difference favours the second group, which must reduce the overall advantage.

Panel 2 - Average ppw order
The top-10 of panel 2 is where we all want to be (at this stage anyway).
Only 4 of the original top-10 most expensive players feature, plus two more from the next tier
Across the top 20 there are 6 and 5 respectively.
No really cheap players in there.
A lot more options for the back six and a lot of them around the 100 mark. Certainly should reduce the FOMO on “must haves”.
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
46,910
Likes
105,568
AFL Club
Collingwood
So was he worth starting or waiting ?

I will leave that to everyone to make their own mind up , obviously those that started him would have known all along that Clohesy would cover him in Round 5 😉

Round 1 - 5 SC scores

Daicos starting price $ 650,000.00 scored 403 points (4 games)
Sicily $ 637,400.00 scored 442 points
Stewart $ 635,300.00 scored 523 points
Ryan $ 611,800.00 scored 678 points 😲
Sinclair $ 596,300.00 scored 380 points (4 games)
Houston $ 593,100.00 scored 554 points
Newman $ 559,900.00 scored 327 points (4 games)
Sheezel $ 556,200.00 scored 654 points 😲
Short $ 551,200.00 scored 293 points
Lloyd $ 535,300.00 scored 322 points (4 games)

Personally I started Daicos , Houston & Sheezel + Young.
 
Joined
18 Dec 2019
Messages
306
Likes
979
AFL Club
West Coast
premiums can go bad, it's the art of knowing when to hold em and to not
Case in point is Dawson. I traded him out early in R2 for $647, he’s now $517. Absolutely dodged a bullet.
Having said that, there are situations where u trade a premium out (Naicos) but bring them back in not long after. Yes you burned a trade, but it was the right call at that moment and cash loss was minimal
I know Dawson isn’t a Def, but that trade out enabled me to bring in Naicos.
 
Last edited:
Joined
14 Jan 2023
Messages
177
Likes
742
AFL Club
Carlton
Case in point is Dawson. I traded him out early in R2 for $647, he’s now $517. Absolutely dodged a bullet.
Having said that, there are situations where u trade a premium out (Naicos) but bring them back in not long after. Yes you burned a trade, but it was the right call at that moment and cash loss was minimal
I know Dawson isn’t a Def, but that trade out enabled me to bring in Naicos.
Yep! I traded Daicos to Whitfield in round 4 and so far, I’ve been happy with the decision.

Was going to trade Daicos back in this round but have opted for my boy Walsh instead this week.

Daicos is on the cards for next week now!
 
Joined
26 Jun 2019
Messages
2,323
Likes
8,461
AFL Club
Richmond
Yep! I traded Daicos to Whitfield in round 4 and so far, I’ve been happy with the decision.

Was going to trade Daicos back in this round but have opted for my boy Walsh instead this week.

Daicos is on the cards for next week now!
I did the same with Daicos and can't say that I'm happy with it, sure Whitfields gone up a bit and Daicos has dropped a bit, but there hasn't been the points differential that I was hoping for, particularly as Clohesy would have been his cover (of course I didn't know that at the time) I don't think that I would do that move again.

There's 3 trades so far for me that are 50/50 Daicos > Whitfield, Young > Yeo and Wines > Drew. They can't be looked at in isolation as there was cash released which enabled other things, but those 3 trades would be very handy at the back end of the season.
 
Top